Valverde Back, Sky Does the Business

Stage 18

I can feel the end coming. Admittedly there is a slightly bumpy stage tomorrow which will be won by someone in the break. Then a time trial, which will be won by Wiggo, unless Froome tries to upset the party. Then a stage on the Champs Elysée, which always is rather nice, but will be won by Cavendish behind the Sky lead out team, all for one and one for all. I suppose there could be surprises, but frankly, I can only see that they would be bad ones. Since I rather like competition and surprises, the final days might see me losing a certain degree of enthusiasm. If you are new to this blog, it happens every year. I would say it was a pretty good Tour, although totally dominated by Sagan, Greipel, Sky, Wiggins and Froome, Voeckler, young riders, French riders, British riders, … actually not dominated in its totality by anyone. A fair bit of variety for everyone.

Today was the last day that we could really be surprised. And we were not. Sky controlled the race, Liquigas tried hard, as did Nibali, but it was never going to happen. I was quite happy to see Voeckler decide to win the spotted jersey and then pull it off. He was the best climber to try and win the jersey. Even if there were only two of them who tried. Kessiakoff, while second, made a name for himself and probably is pretty pleased, since not a soul would have picked for second. No one. The countryside was sumptuous, although I could tell it rains a bit in the area. Lots of moss. But totally attractive looking in the sunshine.

There were a number of high spots today and throughout. First, I am delighted that the French have done well. Not just the young guys, but the ones that have been part of a generation that has been mildly disappointing over the last ten years. They still manage to win stages in their own race, Voeckler, Pineau, Fedrigo, Chavanel are still there. I do think it will be a bit of lift to Tour fans to be watching Pinot, Gallopin, Rolland, and the missing young sprinters in the next decade. I am not neglecting Tejay, EBH, Kittel or Taylor Phinney, just mentioning the French up front. It was with a minor frisson that I liked seeing Pinot coming in right behind Froome and Wiggins today. Seconds behind, in his first Tour, at the end of three weeks. Pinot was stronger than any other riders in the entire Tour.

A big disappointment in the Tour has been Menchov, who was quietly invisible, although he did show his face in front today for a bit. He really has done nothing much except lose time in dribs and drabs everywhere. He was meant to be maybe 5^th or better and he is fifteenth. Bit sad for him too. Radio Shack is the best team, but no one on the team did much of anything, just rode along better than nearly all the riders, except the good ones. "Best team" is fair enough, but they had none of the best riders. Haimar Zubeldia, their best rider, lost two places today, just could not keep up. Although they lost Sanchez, the Euskatel team failed to shine, even though they would have riders in the breaks and one thought they might do something. But there were many teams who came away with nothing much to show for three weeks of hard work, so picking out disappointing results is easy enough.  I think I will stop.

In spite of the fact that they shut down all the competition, thereby making the yellow jersey contest a bit less than wildly exciting, one must admit the Sky team and their one-two was very impressive. They said they would win the Tour in five years. It took less time than they thought. People made fun of them or dismissed them. But in the end they did what they said. Sure, they had more money than any team in cycling history. But you still have to pedal.

Felt bad about Evans and BMC. They have not had a good year at all. But they will be back and they showed excellent organisation and unity. Just that Evans was not ready, or too old, or something. Hope Cadel does a spiffing time trial. I like the guy. He is, for a cyclist, pretty eccentric, but has made it to the top. Tejay has probably learned a thing or two, riding at Cadel's side during the entire Tour. Next year.

A word about Chris Froome is in order. I felt his behaviour on this stage was at least ambiguous and unprofessional, and at worst appalling and theatrical. He signed up for a team that had a role for him. He has been ill for ages, from a parasite that comes and goes, caught in Kenya or South Africa. Sky stuck by him while he did nothing much this year (fourth in the Dauphiné). They thought his ride in the Vuelta was not a fluke, and he had trained well using Sky methods and support. He was probably stronger than Wiggo in the hills, and if the cycling world were not as it is, he might have just ridden away and won the Tour. The time he lost on Wiggins was a minute and half for a puncture ten k from the end of stage one, and the thirty seconds Bradley took off him in the ITT. He really should have just stayed calmly with Bradley, there was no great hurry for the yellow jersey, nothing much to prove, no extra time was needed on Nibali. Instead Froome would accelerate, and then look back, as if to tell the world he was the strongest. We got the message days ago. An ungracious teammate. I guess he will have to wait a year or so to win with Sky. Or he can find someone like BMC to buy up his contract. No doubt we will have rumours flowing from this moment on. I hope Sky gives him a strong team in the Vuelta, so we can see a ding dong between Contador, Rodriguez, Valverde, A. Schleck, Froome, Cobo and anyone else who turns up.

Oh yes, delighted to see Valverde back in some kind of shape. I like him, even if he is an ex doper. He got in the escape, used his team, attacked at the right time, and held off the Dynamic Duo from Sky to win the stage. True, if Froome had been let loose he would have beat him. IF …

Sagan. What can I say? The guy is brilliant, even though we knew that. His riding in the Tour was a bit beyond most expectations. The only question in my mind is whether he will lose weight and be able to climb, or whether he will just win stages and one day races, several a year. He already has a better win record than any recent one day hero at his age. No one has a clue what he can really do as he grows up and gets more experienced.

Cav did what he had to do, given that he just didn't figure in the Sky plans for this Tour. I only hope he wins on the Champs, and then all will be OK. And I wish I had known they were not even going to give him the time of day. I would not have picked him on my fantasy team.

Just to review, Sagan really cannot lose the green jersey, although I am pretty sure he will be going for points or for wins, tomorrow and in Paris. He is so far ahead of Greipel that if Greipel won the stage tomorrow, won the time trial and also the sprint in Paris, he still could not earn enough points. Voeckler has the mountains jersey as there are virtually no rated climbs left. He must have a terrific crash to lose it. Tejay Van Garderen has won the young rider's jersey, unless Thibaut Pinot beats him in the time trial (Tejay was four minutes faster in the first one) and/or gets in some escape and takes several minutes out of Tejay tomorrow. Almost impossible. Wiggins has yellow, unless he get totally whipped by Froome in the TT, or crashes. Radio Shack is so far ahead in the team competition that they would all have to fall off their bikes to lose it.

So aside from awful things happening, the Tour is over. The only matters left are which member of the break will win tomorrow, and will there be something that causes one or two people to change places in the top fifteen. Since all teams are interested in that NOT happening, it probably won't. I suggest you might see some rather unusual teams riding in front tomorrow, preserving ninth place or something. AG2R protecting Roche in the top ten, for example. We don't know if Froome or Wiggo will win the time trial, I certainly hope Wiggo does. The only likely riders to beat them are Tejay or Evans, and I somehow doubt it. Then there is the final question as to whether the Sky train will work well and Cav will finish it off. It is unlikely that there will be too much crashing in Paris, as the roads are really wide, and if anyone crashes into the yellow jersey train and causes them to lose the race by injury, then this will be a bad deed indeed. Cav will most likely win, a little gift from his team who have not helped him very much during the race.

Good night.

Voeckler Again

Stage 16

The Tour is slowly working its way to an end. There was a little dispute between the two French commentators today. The guy who fills up the minutes with prattle and patriotic enthusiasm said that it was a great stage, and that feats of the French were once again heroic. Voeckler was having another day of glory (as in La Marseillaise). Laurent Jalabert, who was a champion cyclist and adds analysis and colour to the programme said that nothing much happened during the stage. This was about the time they finished climbing the third climb, and was essentially true. He was admonished by Thierry Adam, the continuity guy, who said he should not say that. I can understand that, they were, after all, trying to get as many people to watch as possible and make it interesting to Mr. Tout le Monde. Both were right of course. My wife even said, after we had spent several enjoyable hours in front of the telly, that nothing happened. She knows a bit about cycle racing. The top ten looks pretty much as it did, except the downward slide of Evans. It is almost utterly certain that Evans cannot win the Tour. In that sense, the collapse of Evans' challenge happened, but not much else.

There is a slightly different view, which takes each stage by itself. That is, we think of each stage as a classic race, where winning it or performing heroically gives a rider a place in history. Even if nothing changes in the overall (Grand Tour) race itself. In that sense, we would find this stage incredibly interesting and astounding. This view is OK, as it gives more importance to the exploits of each day. But it is a certainty, an absolute certainty, that when the escape went off, the big names, the leaders of teams, would NEVER have let it go if they were not interested in the overall GC, the overall victory. So the angle of “nothing happened” must be seen, as well as a lovely day of racing.

Having said that, the hero of the day was, once again, Thomas Voeckler, the darling of the French and many others too. Although strangely disliked by many keen cycling people. He not only won the huge mythic stage over the four totally famous cols of the “Circle of Death”, Aubisque, Tourmalet, Aspin and Peyresourde, but did it in his usual way, hitch onto an early attack having lost so many minutes that no one cared. Voeckler then then crosses each of the cols first, gathering enough points to win the King of the Mountains jersey. In fact, the last two cols he crossed totally by himself, which is very heroic indeed. However you look at this day, you really cannot do much more. The escape had 38 riders in it, all of whom could be ignored by the GC riders, who rode together to the end of the stage, Nibali, Wiggo and Froome taking one minute or more on the top ten rivals (except Evans who lost 5 minutes). Voeckler's feat was actually very impressive as his ride gives him a four point lead on the former holder of the spotted jersey for the “best climber”. So tomorrow is the day when either Voeckler or Kissiakoff will win the jersey. Nice Day. Bravo, Thomas. That is the second stage he has won this year, both after the rest day. It does bother me slightly that if you asked everyone who knew anything who is the “best climber on the Tour”, I cannot imagine more than 1 of 20 would say Voeckler or Kessiakoff. Last year it was Sanchez, and I bet approaching 9 or 10 might have said he was the “best climber”. End of hobby horse.

For much of the day, Voeckler was accompanied by Brice Feillu, who won a mountain stage in the Tour in 2009. Since then he has done almost nothing whatever. But today, suddenly, after years of nothing, that he was going to do something big. However, he got dropped by Voeckler and finished fifth. He was on the edge of tears many minutes after the stage was over. He is someone who was supposed to be the new generation of French riders, but turned out not to be all that good. A small sad story. He has a brother, and they tried to stay on the same team, based on Brice's victory, but the edge wore off and they are on two teams. One of many small tragedies of any day on the Tour.

It should be said that the two top competitors for Wiggins (and Sky) had quite different fates today. Cadel Evans, who was everyone's joint favourite, along with Wiggins, got dropped on the third climb and never really recovered, or was it the Tourmalet. He dropped another five minutes on the GC guys, and is now in seventh place. Oddly enough, his faithful lieutenant, a young American called Tejay Van Garderen is now a few seconds ahead of him in sixth. The management decision today clearly was to let Tejay ride his own race, and leave everyone else to help Cadel. Tejay did fine, kept up with the yellow jersey peloton almost all the way. We will see him contending for the victory next year, or the year after for sure, as he can climb and time trial. If he were not obligated to help out Cadel, we have no idea what he might have done, but a job is a job. It is a rather good way to learn how to win a Tour is ride next to a potential or recent winner, help them out.

The other contender left, usually considered a bit of an outsider, is Vicenzo Nibali. He managed one serious attack about five k from the top of the last climb. It was indeed a powerful attack. At the end of the attack, there were only three of them left, and they rode to the finish together. Sadly for Vicenzo, the other two were Christopher Froome and Wiggo. He simply could not drop the two Sky riders. In fact, neither of the Sky riders seemed to be in the slightest difficulty. Nibali accelerated, got a hundred metres maybe, and the Sky riders just rode back up and said hello. Maybe took the Sky guys 500 metres or so. No problem. Wiggins never even had to get off his saddle. I am sure Nibali might give it one more go tomorrow, maybe from a bit further out. The finish is at altitude. However, I think everyone pretty much thinks that there is no one in the peloton, and more importantly no team in the peloton, that can beat the Sky team and the two best Sky riders. Simple as that. Unless something happens.

If it weren't for the remnants of the escape (ESCAPE wins again) that would have been an almost perfect example of a “royal escape”. That's when the top GC riders, ride away from everyone else. But it was an imperfect example because this royal escape finished 11^th through 13^th. Still and all it was kind of dramatic in a low key way, quite mythic pictures will come from that little sub-escape.

There was a long article in l'Equipe today about Sky, giving all the personnel, the various vehicles, the mattresses and pillows for each rider. One thing is clear, some of these “continental” teams have no idea how the “Anglo Saxon” mind/culture (that's what the French call the Brits, and other nations) can get down to details. The list of vehicles was quite impressive. One bus, one camping car, 2 race cars, back-up race car, one workshop truck, one large truck, three small vans, 3 VIP cars. Incredible, as usual, what money can buy. It is pretty well known that they have the biggest budget of all teams, maybe matched by the Russian national team, called Katusha. The French or Spanish or Italians don't really have a team like Katusha or Sky. Kazakhstan does. The USA doesn't, yet. I think they might have a budget of 20 million quid. 15 at least, no one really knows. The budget of my French town of seven thousand is 21 million. Nothing like a big football team of course, but there is some money in top level bike racing. The Sky team have a cook who inspects the premises of every hotel they use. If it is not clean enough, they find alternatives. It is not unusual to get some kind of gastro, if you eat carelessly, or clean your hands carelessly, in France. Especially in strange hotels every night. Maybe everywhere, but certainly in France. Some teams (like Europcar), take along a dining/cooking van, where the riders eat. Think about it. In addition we learned that Bradley is on a NO residue diet. No fibre. Pretty interesting for some people. Like me, who knows those diets well. You can win the Tour on a no residue diet. There you go, stuff you didn't know.

Did you know that if there are only two yellow jersey holders this year, as looks to be the case, it would be the first time since 1999 that only two riders wore yellow. I know from memory that the most is 8 different yellow jersey wearers, and on at least three occasions, a rider has worn the yellow jersey for the entire race. Nope, don't remember who, and might not have time to look it up. I tried after all, but after fifteen minutes, I quit. You can look up who wore the yellow jersey through an entire Tour, if you are keen.

I do like the apres-Tour show on French TV. Today they interviewed a complete Tour nutter and keen cyclist who runs a hotel. He has displayed Tour related bike stuff everywhere in this hotel's public rooms. Jerseys, photos, bikes and anything that has to do with the Tour are everywhere. He has a bike of Fignon's, for example. A gift. Then ... he took the TV cameras to a room which no one is allowed into. In fact, he carries the key around with him 24/7. In the room were piles of jerseys and water bottles, and other stuff we didn't even see with the camera angle. In fact, he showed us one water bottle that was given to him by Virenque, whom he obviously thinks is a great rider. He shook it and said that the water left in the bottle, was from when he was given it. Honest. That is what he said. The camera really did not show the entire store room, so I have no idea what is in the rest of it. It was just a reminder that there are other people whose Tour fanaticism is worse than mine, as it lasts all year. Mine only lasts the duration of the Tour. OK, a bit of reading and checking out before and after, but basically during. This guy is at it all year round, and very publicly.

One pleasing detail of today was watching Vinokourov and Voigt in front of the race attacking, trying to win the stage. Both old guys, riding their last Tour. Voigt is an honest worker, of the highest caliber, winner of stages and races. Terrific rider. Vino is a bit of a rascal, an ex-doper, a politically savvy Kazhakistani. I still like him for his attacking style. I still remember him shooting out of the peloton on the Champs Elysée, and surprising everyone to win the stage. Normally only sprinters win that stage. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI4QfcW7qnY (start about 11 minutes in if you are in a hurry). So Vino and Voigt finished fourth and sixth, 3 and 4 minutes back. But it was glorious to see them giving it a go.

Off to bed. Fortunately, I can begin to watch a bit later tomorrow. It was nearly five hours today!