Stage 9 13-7-10

Good stage! I was moaning a bit about the lack of attacking early on, boring my wife silly. It is true it was a pretty mild beginning. Absolutely wonderful mountains, but not a lot of racing. In fact a break got away, and the winner of the stage came from this break. Another French win, this time Sandy Casar from Marc Madiot's FDJ team. The French cannot be upset about stage wins this year, even though they seem to be a bit short of GC contenders. But on the last climb, as is most often the case in the Modern Tour, there was finally a brutal acceleration. It looked like with or without serious discussion, the Astana and Saxobank teams had decided to ride hard and see whom they could drop. Fignon called this very early in the race, with his usual astute eye for what is happening. We had, once again, that sad but very appealing sight of riders dropping off the back, some of them with their Tour in tatters. Certainly dreams of podium finishes shattered. It was a good stage.

It would fair to say that nearly everyone lost time on the lead duo, Schleck and Contador. They had a bit of a mano a mano, with Schleck attacking at least three times, but Contador following each attack. It became clear that Andy could not drop Alberto, and so they made a deal to ride together and distance all their competitors. Samuel Sanchez kept coming back after each attack, but finally he too was distanced. Being a fearsome descender Sanchez almost got back on the descent, only ten seconds behind, but when they reached the short flat section at the end of the stage, it was never going to be easy for one guy to catch two. So while Sanchez lost fifty seconds, nevertheless he distanced several of his competitors and is now sitting on the podium. There is a long way to go. A long long way. Having said that, it look like the two strongest riders are Schleck and Contador. If neither of them drops the other before the long time trial in many days, it is clear that Contador will win the Tour. But that is maybe a big if. Watching them and their teams duel should be a bit of fun over the next few days.

The biggest loser of the day, the tragic figure of the last climb, was Cadel Evans. He lost 8 minutes, and the yellow jersey. He also lost any hope of getting on the podium this year. There could be any number of reasons for this, but the crash that injured his left elbow, and probably caused him serious pain and probably made it hard for him to pull on the bars might be the only explanation we really need. In any case, he was not alone today in losing time, just the most dramatic. Bradley Wiggins, along with Carlos Sastre and Michael Rogers, lost five minutes. One has to be cautious, about making a big deal out of this, as they are all within two minutes of the top ten, so the Tour is nowhere near over for them. Unless they are just not good enough, which, given that they lost time on other days, might be true. Basso and Kreuziger are now just outside the top ten at about five minutes from Schleck. Basso had a slightly better day, towing Lance up the hill for old times' sake, Kreuziger a worse one. I am quit sure that these two will have something to say in the Pyrenees. Both are good climbers and can work together well. Kreuziger can also do a mean TT. The lime green lads will be back. The two Rabobank riders are currently the very best duo of all. Although they lost two minutes, they managed to climb to fourth and fifth place. Menchov is a surprise, no one knew how fit he was. But without much shouting, he is up there with the best challengers. As for Gesink, he rode very well today and seems be fulfilling his promise. What each of these duos manage to concoct for a strategy might be very interesting indeed. Certainly if the challengers do not attack the top two, then the Tour is over, or rather it is between Andy and Alberto. We hope that riding cautiously for third, fifth or seventh place does not appeal too much to the teams like Liquigas and Rabobank, but that remains to be seen. Dutch supporters were apparently really annoyed at Leipheimer for not doing his share of the work n the Madeleine. Levi is a pretty well known wheel sucker. Nevertheless he kept up and solidified his place in the to ten. He got not help from Lance however, who is meant to be his teammate.

So the spoils go to those who attacked. And behind, the others grouped together and tried to stay in contact. I am a bit sad that Samuel Sanchez just missed, by ten seconds, getting back in touch with the two leaders of the Tour. His descending is beautiful. Schleck looked really wobbly, and everyone commented on it. He descends with his hand on the brake hoods, like I do. Very cautious. Having said that, Christophe Moreau, who was in the group of three with Contador reckons he is a good descender and he was having trouble keeping up with Schleck and noticed nothing bad about his descending. So I am not sure what to believe. Probably NOT Moreau, one of the world's great bullshitters and egotists.

One thing is clear. This Tour is far from over. I am assuming that neither Andy nor Alberto have a bad day, but they could. In addition, there are nine riders within five minutes of Schleck, four minutes from Contador and two minutes from third place. Given that today the gaps were two, three, four or even five minutes between groups, everyone one of those riders can hope to finish on the podium. Furthermore, four minutes total cover the second ten riders, so any of them could easily think they might finish in the top ten. While top ten does not seem glamourous compared to the podium, there ARE only three places on the podium and there are nearly two hundred riders who began the Tour. Top ten in the Tour is totally respectable and also very useful in contract negotiations. Let's remember that there are 22 teams, so half of them are guaranteed to NOT have a top ten rider. My point is not that Schleck and Contador have shown that they are very vulnerable. They have not. They have shown they are better than the other riders, so far. But in terms of racing, of attacks, of bold moves, there is plenty to race for, in addition to the duel at the top. Of the next four stages, two are relatively easy, but two are NOT. Then we get the three days of extreme climbing in the Pyrenees, followed by the time trial from Bordeaux (with one sprint stage in between). In other words, the really hard stuff is yet to come. And it has been pretty hard so far.

A couple of further observations. Brajkovic and Szmyd, two of the finest support climbers in the Liquigas and Astana teams, finished eight minutes down, riding with Cadel. I didn't see either of them in the front, and they can climb very well. So maybe they had a bad day, maybe they were taking it easy to do something tomorrow or in the near future.

Just a word or two on the jersey for the best climber, the polka dot jersey. Let me start with a quote from another blog. 'So the polka dot jersey isn't really the meilleur grimpeur. It's a the best climber of a specific group of guys with the ambition and permission to focus on the minor climbs of the Tour, with no regard to their fitness for other tasks. It's a guy who isn't a yellow jersey contender, and who isn't on a team with a yellow jersey contender who might need his help. It's a small, self-selecting goup of guys who can surely climb like the dickens, and whose pursuit of the King of the Mountains classification is a fun sideshow. They get to be King for a few days, and only wishing that the competition were something more prevents fans like me from getting behind this more enthusiastically.' This quote reminded me, as did the recent change of jersey from one French non-climber to another French non-climber. Certainly Pineau and Charteau can climb. But really this jersey is a very bad joke. If there were a one day race which had climbing in it, or if a stage ended at the top of a mountain, neither of these guys would be in the top twenty. No possibility. In fact, today, it was sad to see the polk dot jersey wearer just stop trying once the last climb began. Pineau had been let loose along with a number of other riders who were not threat to anyone about anything. He has accumulated points on climbs no one contested. In fact, hardly anyone has cared about this jersey in recent times. You can't blame these guys, the rules are the rules and for the last almost twenty years, beginning with Virenque, adequate climbers have been reading the rules and winning the competition. Recently they doubled the points on the last climb of a stage so that maybe the real climbers might get some points. And in the end maybe they will. Maybe the best climbers, who would certainly include Schleck and Contador, much less S. Sanchez, Rodriguez, Martinez (not much this year), Cunego, Gesink, Kreuziger, Basso, VdB and so forth, will end up ranking higher than Pineau and Charteau. But as I say, you can't blame them, only blame the rules and people who read them carefully. It bothers me, as the jersey for the best climber should be on the shoulders of … well … more or less the best climber.

Overall a very good stage, at least the last climb. I like how we are still learning about the Tour, nothing is yet obvious. This is the mark of a very good race. Uncertainty.

If you have read this far, you might like to know that since I started the blog, this is my sixtieth post.

Stage 8 11-7-10

Gradually we are learning more about this Tour. Although we had a couple of slow days, there is a fair bit of action already, much more to come. On Tuesday, when we begin again after a rest day, there are some serious climbs, especially Col de Madeleine. Although there is a long descent before the finish. Plenty of action left. And a rest day well deserved for us all.

What did we learn today?
Bradley Wiggins is not in such great form when the road goes up, or at least not today.
Lance Armstrong will either quit the Tour, go for one glorious stage, or work as a domestic for Levi Leipheimer. His Tour is over, we won't see him riding again after the end of July.
The big shot riders still tend to ride up a hill together and no one much attacks … yet.
The scenery is so powerful in the mountains that you almost want to live there.
Chavanel is a nice guy and not a bad rider, but he can't keep up with the best.
The Astana team is not as bad as people have said.
Ivan Basso and Roman Kreuziger can follow the best up a not very steep slope, but can they attack.
The Tour is very much open and anyone who thinks they can predict the winner is a more confident commentator than I.
Predicting Gesink to win the stage was not a bad guess.
The young riders are taking over the GC. Behind them are even younger riders learning and getting ready. The Tour turns.

I suppose that might be pretty much all I have to say, so it could be a very short blog. I did want to mention how rude Thierry Adam is to Fignon in the commentary box, and how often he interrupts Fignon or just talks right over him. But most of you don't watch the coverage in French so I won't say anything.

When the road goes up, and riders are gradually shelled out the back, dropped mercilessly by the accelerations of the peloton or perhaps of one team, the minor tragedies of the Tour are enacted. I think it is beautiful, one of the finest moments of the Tour, or any stage race that climbs. It is part of racing, so there can be no reason to complain. But it is a minor sadness each time. When Bradley Wiggins got dropped I felt a bit bad for him. He has many days to race, and his Tour is far from over. Nevertheless, his entire season was built on this race, and seeing him slide back, and in fact, slide right off the podium was drenched with sadness or even a bit of pity. He may come back, he may make the top ten, but when in fact there were a dozen or so riders who were NOT dropped at all, it was a bit of a shame. It WAS very HOT.

When it was obvious that Lance was dropped and he was not going to come back, I felt much better. I have never really liked the guy or his tactics, while still respecting his overall athletic ability. I saw the young guy, Brajkovic, riding alongside him. No real pain on the young guy's face, but age and recognition of the end leaking from Lance's face. The young guy should have been able to move forward, to catch the others and have a good Tour, but his job description this year was clear. He will, as the years unfold, remember vividly these moments, riding alongside the winningest Tour rider in history. It would have been nice to see Lance say a few words to him, but Janez just looked forward and kept riding. He probably had feelings we might one day learn about. Lance just looked … finished. I should say that I expect him to either quit the Tour during the rest day, or else actually try something on one stage. I am very glad his era is over. He is such a giant figure in the sport, it will be good to stop talking about him. After all, in his 'comeback', he never won a thing of consequence, but still made news every time he coughed. A huge personality.

Andy Schleck illustrated what might be his tactic to win the Tour today. He left it a bit late, but showed he can drop Alberto. Or maybe Alberto decided there was more to come, and he was not going to bust a gut so early. Ten seconds is no big deal. If Andy can do this every time there is a mountaintop finish, he might be fine. He was asked why he didn't attack earlier. He said, quite calmly, that he had a plan for the Tour and he was going to execute it. Apparently the plan does not mean attacks on Stage 8. Good to know there is a plan we can look forward to. He is a gifted rider, and it will be fascinating to see if he can gain enough time on Alberto before the final time trial. As most of you know, Andy will lose at least two maybe three minutes on Alberto on the day before they ride into Paris. As certain as anything can be in this Tour. So where will Andy attack and from how far out. With Fabian and Jens Voigt, as well as the rest of the very strong Saxo Bank team, he has options. Nice to see his first stage win ever in the Tour. Not the last.

I don't talk much about Cadel, but he is there now. In yellow. The rest of them have got to drop him sooner or later or else he will win. Very simple. He can ride a fine TT if he wants, certainly with the yellow jersey at stake he will do well. He knows all about riding the Tour, he knows about the podium, he appears to be in fine shape. I hope he not only makes the podium, but also gives us a little bit of entertainment and sporting excellence during the next few days. I wish I warmed to him more, that I liked him. He speaks Italian, French, English and maybe Spanish too. He likes to support Tibetans. His wife is pretty smart and very supportive and also good looking (unlike Cadel). Why can I not warm to the guy?

My wife is beginning to get bored with me shouting 'attack attack' at the TV. I am too. I know they are all trying to win. I know they are also trying not to lose. As a spectator, I am less excited watching the main GC guys just ride up the last climb in a clump. Yes, Rodriguez did attack. And Gesink. And in the last kilometre, Schleck. But we lacked the slow unfolding of an attack, the gradually lengthening of the gap, the gradual bringing back of the attacker, the counter attack, those mountain moves that make a Tour exciting, and are not merely attritional. Modern cycling is a bit defensive, a bit focussed on not making a mistake rather than the overt display of panache and risk. Oh well.

Looking at the GC after the first serious mountain stage, what can we see? First, it is looking about like it should. It also seems to show that there are not huge differences between any of the top riders yet. The results seem a bit uncertain, it is not clear if there is someone who can really dominate the others. I still reckon Alberto for yellow, but I can see why others might make a case for Schleck or Evans, at the very least. I suppose the best guess is that the podium in Paris will have the same riders as it now does, but maybe we don't know the order yet. If this is true it is a bit sad, but normal for the Tour. But behind the top three we have some others lurking.

Jurgen van den Broeck, or Jerry, is doing well. He seems to have quietly kept up with most everyone and seems able to keep that up. Certainly last year he announced his presence very clearly and is not following that up with a fine ride so far. I have no idea if he is capable of attacking, but if he is, that should prove a very intriguing new element in the mix. Another big surprise in the top ten is Ryder Hesjedal. Although I knew he was good, and even mentioned him in the intro to this blog, I still am a bit surprised to see him up there so high after two days in the mountains. I was never sure if he could climb that well. I don't even know anything more to say except that maybe Garmin has found a new leader, after the sad withdrawal of Christian van der Velde. In some ways, seeing Levi Leipheimer in the top ten is not a huge surprise, but to see the rest of the Shack team so far distant is not what I expected. How Shack support Levi during the rest of the Tour will be fascinating, as he certainly can do a very fine TT at the end of the Tour. In addition, sitting nicely in the top ten is Nicolas Roche. Another surprise for me, in terms of success in the high mountains. He so looked like he was suffering today, I thought he was losing minutes when I saw him. Nearly everyone tips him for very good performances as he ripens, and I guess this is an example. But can he possibly survive in the high mountains?

In terms of disappointments, we still have not seen any kind of moves from Basso or Kreuziger. If the Liquigas duo are gong to make a move, I guess they will be waiting for the Pyrenees. As is Schleck. As is nearly everyone. Should be some good racing, for sure. But Basso, if he doesn't do something quickly, is going to be a domestic for Kreuziger, who is sitting less than two minutes behind Evans, while Basso is another minute back. Still, that duo could be very dangerous indeed. They don't seem to have stretched themselves, and seem to be riding quite comfortably. To make things simple, there are a dozen riders within three minutes of Evans. And to make the podium all of them have to attack or at least follow an attack. Even Contador might feel the need to attack, although he can bank on gaining a minute or so on everyone in the TT.

One piece of relevant information, maybe, is to look at the top twenty, those within five minutes of Evans. Somewhat unusually, there are 18 teams represented. That is, except for Liquigas (Kreuziger- Basso) and Sky (stretching it a bit, but Wiggins and Lovkvist), none of the other teams have two riders. I was just thinking that this give those two teams a bit of room for strategic manoeuvres the others don't have. No idea if they will use it to make some moves. On the other hand, many teams have climbers capable of keeping up in the mountains, who can also be part of moves, even if they are not in the top twenty.

Enough for today. Rest Day tomorrow. Doubt if there will be a posted blog from me.