Second day in the Alps

Second Day in the Alps – 22 July

Written before the Stage? And for no good reason, kept in the blog post. Predictions. Attack on descent of La Bonette by Sanchez or Nibali. Attack on descent by anyone who can do it. Several attacks by anyone but Evens on the ascent. One long attack by CSC on the Ascent of La Bonette. Nothing of interest, except scenery for most of the stage. Evans loses maximum of a minute on one or two contenders. Valverde doe something or other. Kohl does nothing. Either Sastre or Schleck fall out of contention. An escape of nobody special stays away and one rider makes beg advances in the GC that no one cares about.

The organisers of the Tour, and the riders, have continued to provide us with days and competitions that are full of uncertainty. Suddenly the third place guy in the white jersey is first. Well, actually, that’s about it at the end of the day, in terms of changes. The green jersey stays the same, the polka dot jersey stays the same only more so, the yellow jersey stays the same only more so. Yet, it was a rather good day of viewing, or rather a very good last hour or so. The stage winner was French, which is fine, since they have done so badly, they really should have another stage in their own Tour. They have tried so hard with the escapes nearly every stage.

Cyril Dessel is a lesson for us all. No one has ever said he was a champion. No one, except maybe the French, even suspect he is a “real winner”. Not like guys who are in contention for every race they enter “seriously”. He is a good climber, and good descender, not so bad a rouleur. He is a better than average French rider, which means he is average in terms of the riders who are in the Tour, who are the very best in the world. I have not Goggled him to check the details, but he has had a quite good year. Rather than be slowed and hampered by injuries, as he often has been, he has been well and has maybe three or four serious victories. He is not cited in my French mag as even an outsider for any jersey. Yet, he can say, all his life, in any context he wishes, “I wore the yellow jersey” and “I won a stage in the Tour”. And not just any stage, but a huge mountain stage. He speaks with a lisp. If you ask him a question he goes on slightly faster and longer, but a bit less boringly than Christophe Moreau. Couple of years ago they had a good year, sixth and seventh was it? But whatever goes on inside Cyril, and he seems a bit odd to me, he kind of overwhelms you with both his ego and his modesty. They seem to alternate. In the post-Tour show he went on far ages about his childhood and when he came to the area at 14, which he did. Or about today and the details of today, or about his trails and tribulations in recent years. Dessel goes on once you push the button. I would much rather interview him than one of the guys who is determined to say nothing interesting, or who has been trained to say nothing interesting, or who actually has nothing to say. Cyril is a good story about the Tour. I never have liked him at all, but I can see that one thing that is often forgotten is how the winning a stage can change a rider’s life. Dessel knows this too. Winning the Tour, of course, automatically changes your life. But even a stage can. Even a breakaway that almost succeeds can do it. In fact, when you get down to it, just riding in the Tour de France (or knowing someone who did) is a childhood dream for some hundreds of millions of people. It is not like driving a Formula One. In cycling you can ride the exact roads on the exact bike the giants of the road do. Cyril is just a regular guy. French. Good cyclist. But just a regular guy. He is now immortal, even if he does nothing of any national or global significance the rest of his life. I love the Tour. It is a bit like winning a million on the 15 question show called whatever it is in your country. “Qui veut gagner un million (euros)?”

I had the nap after I saw quite a bit of the first minutes when some part of the peloton attempts to form an escape. Over and over. The escapes were on from slightly before the waving of the starter’s flag, after the “fake start” but before the “real start”. I am glad I spent the time. I have a great idea for a new tape. Although someone must have done it. “The Escape”. I am trying to write about that elsewhere. The tape would be the case of maybe twenty or thirty escapes forming (or not) in various races. Maybe some attempts on the same day until one “works”. Other escapes might be very famous, for instance, a few “royal escapes” where the composition of the escape looks like a Classic one day race. Some escapes could be included from very average races, although most should be from the Tour. The escape of Chiappucci et al, that only got pulled back in the last time trial. Over this TV action you have a voice-over explanation, with arrows, and cool graphics that explains why the escape failed or why a few succeed. You could do judicious editing, so some of the real time interminable nature of an escape can be left out, but that you get the feeling nevertheless.

An escape like today’s would never have been allowed to get away the first day in the Pyrnees. But today, it was more or less allowed to get on with deciding who would win the stage, while the battle for the yellow jersey took place in another peloton. Although everyone rode together for much of the day (over the first huge climb), when the pace went up on the last long hard climb, lots of riders were just dropped. They were the third peloton and the suspense for them is will they finish within the delay and stay in the race. Everyone knows that third race is “fixed”. No way they would eliminate eighty riders or more. So in hard mountain stages you really just stay inside the big bus. Every day, three races, if we are lucky. The race for the stage was pretty good. The race to get inside the time limit was not anywhere near close. And the yellow jersey race promised much, but in the end, not a lot is terribly different. This means that Evans and to a lesser extent Menchov have to be the two most obvious possible victors.

Yellow jersey. What did not change? Who is wearing it. The closeness of the gaps between six contenders. Who is most likely to win. The general feeling and high entertainment value of the mountain stages (and sometimes the other stages). Seeing the tragedy of one or two people losing. So Frank still has it. Evans still knows he is going to take it after the time trial. Several people have the utterly obvious objective reason to attack tomorrow or pull of some clever strategic move. Sadly, you could have said that yesterday, about today. But no attacks really and not big strategic moves. The result is that everyone high in the GC basically stayed together and no one got any significant time on anyone, and no one lost all that much. Details.

Looking at the GC, comparing it with yesterday you see that the first three positions have not changed at all, even in time difference. Then you realise that Menchov lost a bit of time. Not a big amount, but he has done this three times before on stages, either by not quite finishing it off well, or by accident. This is bad luck for a Tour winner. And he is not as good as Evans in the time trial. Vande Velde seems to have drifted right out of obvious contention, losing two and a fair bit minutes on yellow today. Sastre and Kirchen are still there, about where they were. I really did not believe that Kirchen would be in the top ten, although some said he might be. I say the same about Kohl, no way would I have put an each way bet on the guy at the beginning, although I noticed the odds were exceptionally good. I am sure over a hundred to one for the win. Valverde and Sanchez have every right to be in the top ten, no one would disagree. And then the question arises, who will be the slightly less than expected top ten rider, besides Kirchen and Kohl and Vande Velde?

So the same necessity for attack is valid for tomorrow. I think the CSC guys lost the Tour today. It was not really their fault, but I figure they blew it. They never could execute the plan if Frank was on an off day. And any plan would have Carlos attack the rest and then see what happened. They did not dare do that today as maybe Frank would be dropped. Then the others would smell blood and attack. But maybe Carlos was not tops either, or the idea of attacking your own yellow jersey was too much. In any case no one really attacked. They just put young Andy in front to ride hard to see who would get dropped. It turned out that all his competitors for the young rider jersey got dropped. He did not get dropped at the end. So he has the white jersey. And none of the other contenders had the legs or the will to attack. So Cadel just sat on the best guys and will wait until the time trial. Although I still say that CSC were the losers today because they just could not figure out how to use three riders to put Evans in difficulty, given Frank’s and Carlos’ condition today. In any case it is obvious that if Andy would just concentrate and eat and drink like a professional, he would have been in contention too. Valverde will never get back enough time on Alpe, he was a bit challenged on the last steep bit of the climb, where a “puncher” like him might look a bit better. On the other hand, the alpe is not that high or that long, maybe he might make a move. He has “top ten” sorted, and I figure by the time the time tidal is over, might be up in fifth or so, or sixth like last year. Although circumstances of the race might dictate otherwise, the race must really be decided by the time the lads get up the Alpe.

I am a bit glad really. I am already looking forward to the end of the Tour, it just takes up too much time for too long. I look forward to the day and the lifestyle, when I could consecrate my entire day for all three weeks, to the Tour. Even then, I think about halfway through the last week, I would still be ready for it to be over. I bet most of the riders are too, even if they have hopes of snatching a stage in the last four days. The time trial can be ridden very easily by all but about twenty riders. Not shamefully, but not for big prizes. The Champs Elysées means you have to do the same routine every year, although the outcome is different. You ride around the Paris area, joking about, and then race up and down what the French are fond of calling “The Most Beautiful Avenue in the World”. After tomorrow, the order will be established for the Tour 2008. Obviously some things can change during the time trial, but probably not much. The two stages in between the Alpe and the TT are for people who get lucky. No one would be allowed to gain so much time they threatened anyone’s top ten or their podium or their jersey. So it is for the lower ranked riders to make a go of it, or for the sprinters’ teams to shut down escapes. Although the breaks will want to get away, the sprinter teams, the GC teams, the jersey teams will all want the status quo. All of them. Maybe if we get lucky two CSC guys might be six and ten seconds behind Evans. Or Menchov might be. Then we could do a little more suspense. But basically it’s over after tomorrow. I am gong to take a day off, I need to start winding down into normal life soon. I need a break of landscape to ease the Post Tour Blues, when emptiness invades my life, and I stop buying L’Equipe every day. Until the bleeding Olympics. Maybe I will give the Olympics a miss, watch the edited daily programme. Not buy the paper.

White jersey. Schleck lived up to his billing and devotion to his brother and the CSC team, in that order. In doing so, he accidentally dropped all the other young guys in the race. It would be an injustice if he does not wear the jersey in Paris. Besides, even though it was a quite normal guess, it would mean that one of my predictions would come true. My small scenario guess for tomorrow is that somehow, Frank and Bjarne Riis say to Andy that he can just ride as fast as he can up the Alpe. Frank follows for as long as they can, until they drop everyone in the race, then Frank motors slowly to the top and Andy takes the stage of legend. They really don’t need Andy’s help after this stage tomorrow, assuming Frank does not crack. Frank should do well as today was a bad day for him and most good riders do not have two bad days in a row. If he does it is proper that he should lose the Tour. Anyway Andy has white and should keep it. If my prediction comes true then I deserve to be published in lights. I noticed that yesterday, John Lee Augustyn; the guy that fell over the edge of the road, is now in fifth place, only four minutes down on Andy. Just one good day and things can change a bit in some competitions for jerseys. He was 48^th with six points before this stage, and now suddenly he is fourth.

Spotted jersey. I guess the guy who wants it is Kohl. He seems in fine shape so should do the right thing tomorrow, and then jersey is his. He deserves it I suppose, but really, talk about a damp squib of a competition. I mean, until a few days ago a time trialist had the jersey. So Kohl. The only interesting thing might be if former yellow jersey winner Tommy Voeckler, the regular guy of French cycling, who made it big, managed to do something to get more points than Kohl. Voeckler can go in any escape. No one cares in the GC. Kohl could NOT go in any escape. So my fearless prediction is that Thomas will go off if he can, grab some points and try to hang on to win the jersey. Let’s see how many points are up for grabs for the winnerof each mountain climb. Eighty points are up for grabs. Suppose Voeckler picks up 40 and Kohl is trapped behind a large escape, with the leaders. So he scores 10. they would be even. So one long escape like today could mean a close competition. Probably not. Too bad Kohl is second on GC, he could have the jersey wrapped up with a tiny escape.

Green jersey looks sewed up too. Oscar did the business. He did everything right, even though the young English kid whupped them all four times. But when the kid was gone, Oscar then won the stage. Said he was glad to win, but the kid was faster. Sadly, the kid left the race, leaving Oscar a near certitude. Kirchen could have made it slightly more interesting by not blowing the mountain stage so badly. Like he got ZERO points today, same as the Sprinters. I still support Zabel, just one more time. One more stage, one more jersey, and he can kiss the training goodbye. Out at the top. But I am I dreaming. He will probably finish as he does in the sprints these days. Fast but not the fastest. Wise, but not the youngest. At the front, but not a winner. I want Eric to win one more time. Hushovd didn’t do anything really wrong either, he just was not the fastest for some reason we may never know. Maybe he could win a stage too.

I often ignore the team competition. They calculate the team standings by taking the top three finishers on each team, adding their times, and averaging for the team. Then they continue this each day adding the time to the previous total for the whole race. In the end there is a total for “the first three riders” on “each separate day”, for “each separate team”, added up from the first day. Often this ranking system corresponds with what you think it should be, that is, a list of the “best teams” in the Tour, in a relative ranking. This indicator is constructed like most quantitative measures, they are refining it all the time. “Being the best team” used to get you a guaranteed invitation to all the Top Tours. This is a prize worth going for, if you have the possibility of doing it. So in the last few days of the Tour that this comes into the construction of strategies. So at present, the best team is Team CSC, rather closely followed by AG2R. Then there is an awesome, never-to-be-breached gap to all the other teams. The others have no chance at all of beating the two top teams. Each of the others is slightly better than the next one down the ladder. But the difference is slight and can change in one day. For example, fifth could be third by the end of the Tour. Rabobank is third, followed by Lampre, Euskatel, Gerolsteiner, Caisse, silence, Credit Agricole and Team Columbia. There is something more or less satisfactory about that list. But if it were a Tour de France geek quiz, I would ask the perfectly answerable question, “Explain the position of Euskatel and Columbia with regards to the failings of quantitative ranking systems.” I presume that you, like me, think that Columbia is a brilliant team, and Euskatel has one guy with class. But maybe you agree with the rankings. Or even the idea of rankings.

They went so slowly up the Lombarde, the first big pass, that the sprinters were not even dropped. I know why, but this is a bad spectacle. When you can only guarantee racing excitement for an hour and it is televised for four, then the product needs improvement. On the other hand, some people like watching cricket. In the Tour you can have two races in one, like we did today. In cricket, there is only one game at a time. It is even slower to develop.

I love the controversy about the “highest road in Europe”. This is what the French believe the road over the Col de Bonette Restefond is. The Tour is the greatest event in cycling, and possibly in all sports. The highest climb in Europe fits right in with the hype. BUT, what this really means (to eliminate the more than three thousand metre road in the Sierra Nevada in Spain) is the road today is “the highest paved road that doesn’t just go to the top and stop being paved or even stop entirely. “A dead end” as we used to say. Sans Issue, I now say. On the other hand, there was some mention of Austrian passes which were actually higher. One of the French commentators, the one in charge of “Cocorico”, tried to claim it is the highest. Fignon sort of snorts in the background, and Jean Paul Olivier, with his sense of accuracy and keenness on facts, does bring up the Austrian rumour, without giving the name of the pass. Its hard when a pass might not be highest and you always thought it was. On the other hand, there are two passes, the Iseran and the Stelvio, in Italy, which WERE higher than La Bonnette. But someone decided in 1961 to make a wee loop in the road going all the way to the very top. This meant that instead of being third, La Bonette became top. As long as you ignore Austrian claims and claim the road has to be paved both up and over. You have to find stuff to talk about in a long Tour. I did a bit of goggling and I think the French might be right. The highest pass you can ride a road bike over, fast, is La Bonette.

The brother story is always a good one. Fathers and sons does well on the Tour too. Brothers and sons of former riders always adds spice to the storyline. Although Sebastian just dropped out, the Chavanel brothers were one story. But the Schlecks clearly have moved it to a new level. One in yellow and one in white. I wonder if this has ever happened, and won’t take the time to find out right now. I reckon its a first.

Further, we have had six different riders wear the jersey. I would like to, and can, invent a scenario where we get past six. It can be “hoped” that Kohl, Menchov or Sastre wears yellow, or even someone else, as a result of some outstanding or lucky performance tomorrow. I would like that. Things would be so uncertain that maybe we would find an eighth rider before Paris. But the odds seem to be that when and if Frank loses it, he will lose it to Evans. Stuck at six.

Must go now. I get to ride the bike tomorrow and must get some sleep.

All the best. Nearly done now.

First Day in the Alps

First Day in the Alps – 20 July

We got a bit of action today, but very slow to unfold. Other than the two crashes, which are not the kind of action I want to talk about, we have a few changes, and plenty of material to speculate about. Did I mention that the stage was very slow to unfold. I had a nap between the climb of the huge mountain and 50k from the end and apparently missed almost nothing. I took my nap when I realised that no one was going to do anything on the first big climb. And virtually no one was dropped, as the pace was so slow that practically any rider could keep up. It does happen in the Tour, frequently, but I will admit that I am always hoping for someone to make a significant move. I understand totally why no one does, but as a spectacle we mainly have the countryside. As for my taste in landscape, I say the French bit was loads more interesting than the Italian bit. I did my first week long taiji intensive at 1600 metres up a back road from Chateau Queyras, so I love it when they go on that road. I still remember the one time we left the mountaintop encampment (Sommet Bucher) and drove down the road with Pink Floyd on the stereo. Never cycled around there.

After our club ride this morning, we had a quick coffee speculating about the Tour a bit. We all agreed that no one has any idea what is going to happen. Nice ride though, 77k, 600 metres of climbing, but mostly just riding along. The eight k, false flat, descent down the valley from Seriès to Avène was a particular pleasure. I am surprised I could keep up after my cold and ten days off the bike, but since “keeping up” sometimes means sticking with two guys ten years older than me, it was almost a pleasure. Got a push or two when my morale was flagging.

The two crashes today in the Tour were reminders what can happen at any moment on the bike. And the odd thing is that nearly everyone gets up and keeps riding after them. You would think that crashes would always cause serious injury, but they don’t. Oscar Pereiro however, went to the hospital, although it could have been worse. It actually looked loads worse. Can’t actually see what happened on the replays. Just a wee mistake, misjudging a turn, avoiding a patch of gravel, a touch of the brakes. It can just happen.

The victory of Simon Gerrans, who in no way resembles or pretends to resemble a climber, was something that I believe no person on earth predicted, including his partner, his kids, his mom and dad. He was just not supposed to be there winning the first stage in the Alps. Although Fignon contended it just was not a difficult stage and I tend to agree. Especially after the fact. . Furthermore any break was supposed to get mopped up by the guys trying to win the stage and race. In fact, it almost did get caught. They only won by four minutes and this can easily be attributed to the two crashes which really made the peloton think a bit about the conditions, and the point of it all. More power to Gerrans, who has now got a made career. “Simon Gerrans, winner of stage in the Tour de France”. This Tour is so unpredictable. The experts on the box only had four guys to pick from for the stage win, and could watch them closely for a hundred k. They thought Pate was hopeless, and he was not. They thought, unanimously, that Martinez would win. Although one or two did have a good word to say about Gerrans and Arrieta (loads of “experience”). In fact, Fignon had a nice comment about how Mrtinez might be good, and might be a good teammate, but he had not really learned to win. Apparently two wins in his career. Fignon really is good. But I don’t feel bad when I mess up.

As for the stage itself, things changed at the end, but not massively. No one got eliminated or lost a lot of time. I notice that one totally outsider, Devolder, has dropped out. And Cavendish is off to train for the Olympics on the track. It is pretty common knowledge that for a sprinter to climb hills does not get them ready for the track. Cadel lost the jersey, but he has six seconds (so far) to make up and can time trial better than anyone in the top ten. So they are going to have to do a lot better to make me think he is not going to win. I would not be at all worried if I were him. Although I noticed that he really has no team at all when the going gets tough. I am not sure I saw Popovych all day. He finished over seven minutes back with a load of no one in particulars. Evans did look to be suffering a bit. The last few k up the hill were full of attacks. Mostly they were by Andy Schleck, who showed that the lost time (a disaster in fact) on Hautacam was indeed mostly due to not eating and drinking enough. He is pretty good climber really. As good as anyone else.

So yellow jersey is so up for grabs I defy anyone to give me a solid case for anyone, except Cadel. That is purely based on his superiority in the time trials. I am utterly certain that I have never seen a Tour where there are six guys within 50 seconds with only two mountain stages to go. You could easily say that since Evans is superior by minutes over these other guys in the time trial, the closeness is an illusion. There is sense in that, but at this moment, it is really close. Closer to the time I shall compare the last time trial in 2007 with the gaps that exist by then.

Although it may be just stubbornness, I don’t even think that Valverde is totally out of a podium place yet (4,11 downon Frank). I don’t think Andy S will make the top ten. I think he will now sacrifice ALL for his brother or Carlos. And come back next year a little bit more experienced.

There are still some surprises in the top ten. People I am pretty sure no-one predicted would be there, although no doubt there will be some who clam they did. Bernhard Kohl was an outsider for the polka dot jersey, but NOT for second place. Christian Vande Velde was not mentioned by anyone I read for a top ten place, much less fifth, 39 seconds from yellow. CV only lost ten seconds to Evans in the first time trial! Although Kim Kirchen was mentioned, I personally am still way surprised he is still there in seventh place. And although AG2R, a continental team, might have had big hopes for Efemkin and Valjevec, I doubt they really thought 9^th and thirteenth at this stage would be a serious hope. And then Maxime Monfort, the revelation of the Tour, for me personally, as I had never heard of him. Cunego is not doing nearly as well as many had hoped, including him;

As for the close gaps, I really find it mind blowing. I am glad Frank has the yellow jersey. This will take pressure off Cadel. It will also make the race interesting since CSC are the only team that can be guaranteed to do whatever they want on the flat bits, and the only team who are guaranteed to have THREE guys in the small group at the end of the last climb. They can just work over anyone, anytime. I should think that Sastre still has moves to make. And Andy Schleck will work over the small group of leaders until he is dead, so that his brother can win. Although he might help out Sastre if needed too. CSC is very powerful and will have everything to say about who wins. Cadel will just hang on, never attack and beat them in the time trial. Or so he thinks. But since there are still two big stages to watch, we don’t now; that’s the beauty of it, we just don’t know.

Young rider. It is now totally clear who are the four best riders in this category. The only one that keeps surprising me is Monfort. I had no idea he was that good or that consistent. He is seldom mentioned as a serious candidate. He must be very proud of his Tour so far. There other three are very well known quantities. I still pick Schleck, although I am pretty sure Nibali and Kreuziger can time trial better than he can. I can tell you one thing, to have four guys this close at this stage of the %tour is something that has never happened in at least 15 years. The Tour of Uncertainty.

Polka dot jersey. You can see clearly what happens when no one seems to want the jersey. A break goes away, over only two decent climbs today. Suddenly the four guys in the break, three of whom have nothing to do with the polka dot jersey, are in the top eight, Martinez third, Gerrans fourth in the standings. That’s what I mean about the jersey being a joke. You look at the green jersey there are no jokes. You look at yellow, the guys are all real. White is simply the young guys who are also doing well. But really, Lang and Gerrans, second and fourth best climbers. For me, it is just not a genuine jersey competition anymore. Hope something happens, although it appears that Kohl is the only one who is trying to win it. Mind you, with one long attack, someone could suddenly be a threat. But it looks like Kohl. He will be very motivated, as he is in with an outside chance of a podium. No way in my book.

I will tell you one thing that disturbs me a bit, although I don’t know why. At this stage of the Tour, this morning, the third week, there were ten of the twenty teams that have every single rider on their team still in the race. And there are six more who have only lost one rider. Although I refuse to look it up just yet, it seems to me that this is unprecedented. Very few riders are dropping out. Half the Barloworld team and all the Saunier Duval, fair enough. But hardly anyone is dropping out of the other teams. Very bizarre. Usually by the end of the Tour there are only three or four teams with full rosters. Why is this Tour so “easy”?

Simon Gerrans. Apparently was seriously injured during his previous sporting career and started cycling when a neighbour, Phil Anderson, lent him a bike to recuperate. He was good and so gave up the previous career. And now, his life has changed!

I do love it when we get two races in one. Seems such a good deal. It did take along time to get interesting, but when it did it was nearly exciting. Good Tour so far!

Good night. Tomorrow is market day and I look forward to hanging out on the street with the club guys who don’t work. We should have the Tour sorted by noon.