Valverde Punctures at Just the Wrong Time

12 July 2013

How dare I think it would be a flat uneventful stage? Well, I did. Small escape, brought back a few k from the end, was what I thought. Big sprint. And I expect maybe 95% of all commentators, professional or not would have agreed. Was I wrong! We got another surprise, and you all know how I love surprises. I must review everything later, but it did look like, with the wind playing a part, someone, not Froome, but someone just ahead of him, lost the wheel of the last guy in the first group. (Later I found out for sure it was Kwiatowski.) Clearly Omega or Movistar made the pressure, but I wonder who lost the wheel. Froome was right there, and did not panic, but called for his men after making an effort on his own and realising it was not worth it. Sadly for him, the help was not really there. His men were already far behind, except a few. Stannard and Thomas did serious work to try to bring back the break, but they could not compete with Saxo. There were SIX Saxo riders in that break out of fourteen. BMC helped for a bit to try and pull them back, but then decided to just leave it. Greipel's team helped for a bit, but not much. All that was left ws two exhausted Sky guys. So we got a demonstration of the power of Saxo. Nice demo. So far, we have had a Sky demo, a Cannondale demo, a Movistar demo and a Saxo, aside from the sprinter;s teams at the end of stages. Bravo for everyone who made that stage interesting. One major complaint. I really don't think that natural justice is served by having Valverde lose any chance of winning the Tour with a puncture. Not right. Not right at all. Still, that's the way the wind blew. We certainly don't mind bold teams that attack on the flat and surprise everyone. And Cav got his second stage. Great stage. Suspense until the end.

The Belkin boys also made their contribution and now find themselves in an excellent position (second and fifth) to try some one-two moves in the mountains to come. In case any of you are wondering what Belkin makes and where they are (although the team is formerly Dutch), “Belkin International, Inc., is a California manufacturer of consumer electronics that specializes in connectivity devices.” Mind you, there are quite a few little climbs tomorrow. Maybe something more than what most thought would happen tomorrow will happen, a break will be allowed to get away. So now we have a GC where besides a few miscellaneous good riders, there are at least three strong teams with the possibility of moving up the GC, maybe winning the Tour. There is every reason for anyone to attack, since it is quite clear that unless they somehow take some serious steps, and maybe not even then, they might win. Sky makes mistakes and their riders are scattered all over the place. I really do wonder what has happened to Porte. He was riding really well all season, winning races, climbing well, TTing well, and suddenly after a bit of effort up a hill on Saturday last, he faded completely. I don't get it. I also wonder why they bothered to even bring Lopez.

The Omega team should be happy little bunnies today, they won for Cav in a rather unusual way. They got rid of every sprinter except Sagan, and Sagan is no match for Cav, even after a long stage. This means 25 stage wins for Cav, which means he is tied with Andre Leducq and has won more road stages than anyone in Tour history (Cav can't time trial well). I guess tomorrow it might end up with a sprint, but most likely the next sprint will be on the Champs Elysée. Cav would like to win that badly, but he has won four in a row and it might be time for someone else.

The wind, we often forget the wind in a race like this. Those of us who ride in Languedoc-Roussillon never forget the wind, but sometimes the other guys do. Not today. A bit unusual to have serious wind in that part of France though, so I can see they might have been surprised. Omega apparently had a good weather consultant on hire.

Saxo team was strong and smart, led and encouraged very well by Contador. A minute is a pretty nice chunk of what he was missing. Smart riding.

Overall, no jersey changed hands, but the GC was very slightly shuffled. Numerous riders moved up or down one or two places in the top 20, but with a couple of exceptions, nothing much was altered. Clearly Valverde was the big loser of the day, dropping 14 places, and pretty much guaranteeing he is off the podium this year. Mind you, this will leave him and Rui Costa free to help out Quintana. Another big loser was Rui Costa, Valverde's teammate, who dropped from ninth to 18^th, due to being brought back to try and help Valverde when he missed the break. Bad day for Movistar. Fuglsang jumped up 6 places into the top ten, in fact sixth. All that with only a minute gained on most top ten riders. This shows that the gaps in the top ten are not immense, one good or bad stage can mean a lot. Sylvan Chavanel, Daniel Navarro and Andrew Talansky both made it into the top twenty. I would be happy if they ended up in the top ten. With the last week having a hilly time trial and four mountain stages, there are many minutes to be gained and lost. For example, in my estimation Fuglsang and Ten Dam and Peraud will drop from the top ten. Riders like Martin, Evans, maybe even Schleck might replace them.

What a wonderful day of racing. Very unexpected. The best kind of racing.

Good night. Off early tonight as I went swimming for the first time in ages, and I. Am. Tired.

Kittel beats Cavendish in Straight Sprint

11 July 2013

For those who like the Chateaux on the Loire, today's stage was excellent. You just can't beat the helicopters circling. For those who like sprint stages, it was instructive, even though, and we might be getting tired of this, there was a crash inside 3k … again. The riders must be getting a bit weary of it too. Especially EBH and Sky, as it seems the only serious injury is EBH's fractured, with word that he probably won't start tomorrow. With Kiryienko and EBH gone, Sky have lost a couple of valuable members of their team. Thomas is still lingering at the back of the peloton as well, so a team claimed by some to be “weaker than last year” is not still weaker. EBH is a stalwart for sure. Now there is no excuse for not attacking in the mountains. We might well be in for a fine last few days. Since EBH was one of my long time favourites I am particularly sad he is gone.

So there was a break, not a bad one really, and after many k the last guy, Flecha, was caught a few k from the finish. It must be said that everyone on earth knew it would be caught and that almost certainly there would be a sprint. Every team got lined up, but the second string sprinter form FDJ, William Bonnet, touched someone's wheel (Sagan I think) or whatever happens in a fast moving very close packed peloton, and he came down, bringing down maybe twenty riders. Other than EBH looks like no one got hurt badly, but I expect the start list tomorrow will have at least another rider missing. Andre Greipel was caught in the crash and was absent from the sprint.

The sprint itself was clean and tidy. Omega gave Cav a perfect leadout, with Steegman possibly leaving Cav a little far to go. On the other hand, usually when Cav is in front 200 metres from the end, no one can go past him, especially with his “double kick”. But maybe he left that kick in the Giro d'Italia, or maybe he just does not have it this year. In any case, Kittel took his wheel, and came from behind to beat him by half a wheel. Not a lot, but it was a clean win. That made three wins for Kittel, more than any sprinter in the pack. One more sprint stage tomorrow and then that could be it for the sprinters until the Champs. My opinion, worth very little since I have no inside information is that it is way too early to think that Cav is finished as a sprinter. He will win many races in the years that come, and he will certainly beat Kittel. Although Kittel will certainly be another “revelation” of the Tour. BUT when everyone is there, or when one or two of the very best sprinters are present with their trains, Cav is not the cast iron guarantee he once was. He is showing a little public annoyance (for me bad behaviour for a 28 year old) at being beaten so often, but also gives credit to Kittel for being a fine sprinter. But the era of the all-conquering Cavendish is over. Hope he does it on the Champs though. Although I think his record of four wins on the trot will take some beating, long after he stops riding. It does look like beating Merckx for total stage wins in the Tour might not be so easy to do. Probably get past Hinault on 28, but 34 might be hard. Reminds me of Federer chasing Sampras and Woods chasing Nicklaus.

None of the jerseys changed, no one lost time on the GC. So nothing to report, probably nothing tomorrow. And Saturday looks like a day when a break might finally make it to the end. A bit hilly. Having said that, the last sixty k or so don't have any big hills, just a few fourth category. So if the break doesn’t get a gap of ten or more minutes by then, they might finish in a sprint if the sprinters' teams want the victory. Most of those sprinters' teams have no one for the GC, and won't have to perform on Ventoux or in the Alps, so a bit of work might gain a stage for one of the sprinters. But it does look like a stage for the break to succeed.

I do apologize, but unless I get around to reading a bit and finding out about things I didn't see or know about, that really is all I have to say.

Now then, I could update you on how my fantasy teams are doing. OK, I hear a burst of enthusiasm (not really). Those who don't care how I am doing, just skip this bit. There is the competition within my cycling forum, picking winners or rather first through sixth for all the big races all during the year. There is a complicated system which I don't do well with, but in any case I usually am right I the middle of the pack. That is about where I am, although in the Tour itself, at this moment, I am eighth. About right for the year. In another league, where six of the forum participate I am, for the first time in three years, almost leading with the year well over halfway. On the Tour itself, I am currently third. In another league where most of our forum are playing, I am currently leading our forum in the Tour itself with an unlikely team which will not win in the end. Seven sprinters and Froome and Valverde. I am also 37^th out of 1047 overall. My proper, more balanced team is actually in the bottom third of the our forum in the league. I was highly affected by my sprinters (Greipel and Cav), not act actually sprinting for some stages. Plus Bouhanni dropped out, and van Garderen vanished. The truth of the matter is that I don't read the rules very carefully, and am not that good at picking teams or winners on the day. But not that bad either. Medium to good.

Good night.