Sagan Again

Stage 3 Those were rather heavy, rolling roads today. Loads of punctures, people crashing, riders out of the Tour, even a little rain near the end. Quite normal events of the Tour although no one really likes to see crashes. They always give me a bit of the willies, some kind of fear courses through my veins. If a rider then leaves the Tour, possibly for nothing he caused directly, I feel some incredible wash of injustice. He was just riding along, Constantine Sioutsou or JJ Rojas, and something happened. A wobble, a pebble, a water bottle, a tiny oil leak, anything, and their Tour is over. Sioutsou was one of Wiggins' big helpers in the mountains. “That's the Tour”. The first week is nervous. The Tour as a spectacle and show is immense. The whole thing is just set up to have crashes. In addition, we have Voeckler having trouble with his knee. Marcel Kittel, the ultra promising German sprinter, seems to be digestively unwell. Tom Danielson might be leaving with shoulder problems. Who knows who else is masking or hiding something, hoping they can “recover” after cycling 200k a day at the highest average speeds possible. Faster than my rides, in fact an average of just about double my speed. They average, when they ride the mountains, a faster average speed than I do on the flat. OK, it is easier in a big group with closed roads, but still … Hope those guys get better, and ride. But you have the beginnings of a cold or a terrific hand injury of some kind (LL Sanchez), is the best way to heal it is to get up and ride 200k at high speeds. Was it Valverde who blew it on the roundabout? Can't find out. All the the GC riders came through well. Cav got caught in the second group after an earlier crash, and looked very relaxed. Today was the day for EBH, his teammate, to have a go. The result is clear enough, on a hard uphill finish, Sagan can ride appreciably faster than everyone else. EBH can ride just a bit faster than everyone else, except Sagan. I always wonder what a guy like EBH will do when the reality hits. He has to rethink his bike career or he is going to be finishing second to this guy for years. Is he going to continue to NOT climb well in the high mountains oris he going to make changes? Sagan too has to make choices about how he sees his career. Does he lose weight or not? That must be the big question. Does Sagan want to climb well? Can EBH lose a little weight and see how well he can climb, knowing that he will be able to out-sprint anyone from a small group at the top of, say Alpe d'Huez. Glad to be around while they are figuring it out. One might overlook Fabian in all the Sagan-mania, but he still has the jersey. Meanwhile Sagan walked the stage. The guy is amazing. I will inform you if anyone comes up a story of a more explosive and rapid beginning of a career (Merckx excepted). Kelly, Boonen, Gilbert, for example, no contest. They had barely begun to win anything much at 22. Sagan has won 35 times or something. Stages in big races. I got my wish from stage one. A new version of uphill finish, different hill, same guys. Slightly different outcome. But Sagan was the best. Sadly, I think that might be it the end of the uphill finishes for the Tour. They do enliven things. I am hoping tomorrow will show Sagan can be beaten on the flat, in a mass of movement, either by a Lotto train, a Greenedge train or a butterfly Cav. Sagan might take another year or two to learn how to navigate all that. At this time last year, Cav was another kind of sprinter and Sagan was not quite such a force. By next year? I do hear Gilbert is not well, and anyway he has had a horrible year. Gilbert can start over next year and see if he can whup the young fellow. Although if it were Sagan and Fabian, escaped alone over the last fifty K of Paris Roubaix, I would put my money on Fabian. The difference between those two on a short hill is not much, especially if Sagan JUST follows wheels. But he does not. Today, he just attacked, and no one could follow. Noticed Cav won the intermediate sprint, beat Sagan, so who knows. Green shaping up as a contest between Sagan and … well, we don't know yet. Cav. Goss. Greipel should be ready. Freire is going to pop up for sure. We should have some good flat sprints and then just about when we are bored, the mountains will turn up. Today if you look at the finishing table, you see something that makes no sense unless you know the rules. Remember, anyone who crashes in the last 3k, gets the same time as the group they were in. So you can see that Tony Gallopin and Sandy Casar have finished 47 seconds after the winner. And yet right below them, starting with Burghardt and going just past Hincapie, the riders get only one second more than Sagan. The answer is that those riders after Burghardt, took more than 47 seconds to untangle and get back on on that steep hill, and finish. The guys who actually crossed the line 47 seconds after Sagan must have passed all those guys who only lost a second. They were untangling their bikes still. Keep looking down the standings and you can see who was in the first group, all given the same time (one second more than Sagan) but it took them longer to untangle and more riders passed them from the second bunch, the one Cavendish was in. You can see the possible confusion, Menchov rides over the line over a minute after Sagan, but only loses one second. It makes sense when you think about it, but it is not obvious. Noticed that Brice Feillu, the guy who won a huge mountain stage two years ago and has not done much since, is in “pack it in” mood. Feels awful. I did think he was a one trick pony with a bit of luck, when he won that stage. Good, but not that good. On the other hand, since he gets interviewed nearly every day, I am coming to like this Russian sounding Dane, Markov. He seems to ride out front every day and has managed to get enough points that he will keep his mountains jersey until, as he said, we get to the real mountains. He seems a mellow guy. The crash itself, on the last hill? I had been going to say Albasini was involved, but one of my forum guys says “Oh and who caused the crash? Quite clearly seen from the over head. Oscar Freire and Andre Greipel. Oscar tried to squeeze through a gap that Greipel closed and took out Rob Ruijgh...........just like in a flat sprint.” It is too late for me to look it over and find the right video, I have not seen the overhead view. When a fixed back wheel touched another rider's NOT fixed front wheel. the result is always obvious. Crash of the guy with the wheel that can move and wobble. It is forbidden for a rider to take shelter behind a motorcycle or a car during the race. However, the rule is interpreted loosely. Actually taking a tow by hanging onto a car for many minutes is way over the limit. But as all rules, there are exceptions. When working on a moving bike to fix some bit of the bike, or when medically treating a rider, the rider can hang on to the car. Even this rule is misused. After a puncture or a wee, the riders can take shelter for a moment or three behind the huge line of cars that follow the Tour, making it easier to return to the main group. Sometimes it is totally obvious that for several moments, a rider is taking shelter behind his own team car. Basically the cycling commissars, who cannot be with each rider, although all TV recordings are instantly available, and who are human, decide in the grey area whether the help a car gives rider is “too much”. Looking casually at the list of who lost lots of time, I noted that two Garmin riders, both of whom have finished in the top ten of the Tour, Tom Danielson and Christian Van De Velde have lost many minutes. In addition, so has Dan Martin. Simplifies matters for the Garmin team. Everyone now can help Ryder Hesjedal. But any of them can nip off and try to take a stage if they want to, as they are so far behind on GC now it doesn't matter. Anyway losing time gives you freedom for an exploit, as well as focussing the team on Ryder for GC. Just got my special Tour issue of Velo, actually the second special Tour issue of Velo. Strange, why can't one do the job. Cover pic of Voeckler and Rolland. Seems like Voeckler might be gone any day. Sad really. Tomorrow should be a sprint, but I notice there is a wee hill just before the end. I don't know how high it is or how hard, but it certainly would be a spot for someone to try to get away, whether from a small escape or a large peloton. Later.

Cav wins his 21st

Stage 2 Quite good today. No Euro Final. Attac meeting must have been cancelled (must read all the emails). More time to write. Less hurried. Sadly there is not much to be revealed. I can't tell you about the wealth stored in the magnificent aristocrat and church buildings. Really you gotta watch. Loads of people by the side of the road, Belgians and others really love to watch the Tour go by. I know EXACTLY what “they” might mean, since I am one of them. Racingwise, it was great for me. Cav and Andre Greipel are the only two sprinters on my major Tour fantasy team. I think I even got double points for Greipel today. Some things were revealed. Cav does not need a lead out team to win a stage. He is flexible. He said he sent away EBH and Bernie Eisel five k form the end, and just did for himself. This new Cav could be a Potential Classics Winner. Anyway rather than ride behind Eisel until the last K and then ride behind EBH, without watching the replay, it looks like he just wandered around until he got on the right wheel, then another right wheel (a Greenedge leadout rider), then the last right wheel, Greipel's, popping out just in time to nip poor Andre at the post. These two were on the same team, they know each other well. I lost control of the TV for the afterchat, but I heard that Cav was dead happy to win his 21st sprint in the Tour. One more and he is joint third with Andre Darrigade and Lance Armstrong. At 26. That leaves Hinault and Merckx ahead of him. Whoever else might be good in this Tour, you gotta give it to this guy. He really is the fastest guy in the world. My British patriot bit is really happy, at last. But the rest of me just loves to see him pop up and blow by. I hope he wins another couple. Greipel, however, will beat him. Kittel, the other young German sprinter, was a bit ill today and could not take part in the sprint. I hope Matt Goss, the third place guy (winner of Milan-San Remo this year) will eventually win a stage. In fact, during the sprint, when I looked at it, he used Cav's wheel until the end, elbowing Sagan off (fluidly) near the end. But of course Cav borrowed Goss' leadout man, whereupon Goss borrowed Cav. It really is quite a dance. Sure would be nice to know what the green jersey competition will look like in a week. Tomorrow is one of those flat stages with a bit of kick. Hello Sagan and EBH, maybe even Fabian. Love that act. Unless Gilbert joins in, which would be even better. Who knows who might pop into the picture those last few K tomorrow? Goss? Nice thing about these flat stages, if you have something else to do, you can mess about a little, until the last 30k when it begins to warm up. If you do that messing about though, you would miss the tidbits of gossip, the cut and thrust of the two lads on TV (not as good as Laurent Fignon was, I say), the countryside with its built component. From a helicopter. On mountain days I simply do not do chores. Or write emails. Or surf. Today I noticed that Sagan did not win. He had a sprinter teammate for leadout, but he still didn't win. So his current weaknesses are flat sprint stages when every other good sprinter is present and flat prologue time trials with not many hills or curves. And, supposedly, high mountains. He doesn't LOOK like he can climb, does he? The run up to the sprint was a bit different. For one thing, the Sky Train is gone. The idea this year is for Sky to get Wiggo within three k on the flat stages and then relax. If there is a crash inside 3k, you get the time of the group you were in. Wiggo was at the front. So was Evans. Cadel had only one guy with him during the last five k, George Hincapie. It was up to George to keep him safe. I suppose if you took a poll of the entire peloton, and asked them what wheel to follow through the last 15 k, I reckon Big George might come up. Maybe Jens Voigt. You could trust your Tour to those guys. And people do. There was a four man group leading out Greipel. And some Greenedge guys leading out Goss. But overall, when you see the aerial shots, you don't see many longish trains in the last five k like we used to. In fact this lack of teams organising large numbers of cyclists to help their sprinters means the peloton looks a bit “disorganised”. Now or later I have to say something useful and creative about the “organisation” of the peloton. It looked a bit messy today, and yet pretty much the same guys were at the front, on the podium. If ten days ago, someone were to ask who might be on the podium today, I am willing to bet that these three would have been a consensus guess, although maybe not in the exact order they finished. Must watch the replays later. http://www.cyclingfans.com/cycling_videos There is one which shows the last 1.4k, its the best, Basque language. This stage seems to me a perfect stage to study a genius sprinter in action. Find the Basque replay that shows the race for the last 1400 metres. Find the two yellow-hatted Sky guys, Eisel (usual Sky black jersey) and EBH (white jersey of Norwegian champ). They are vaguely seeing if they can help Cav, who is working on his own, further back in the pack on the other side. He is a bit hidden often, but has a yellow hat and rainbow stripes around the white jersey. Maybe this is kind of strange, but replay the video, watch ONLY one of the yellow helmeted Sky guys. See what they do, how they move around and move up. As far as I can see Cav could not possibly have ridden better. He was like one of those surfers with a huge wave, or a fish in water. Drifting with intent, from one rider to another, finally winning. Maybe I am odd guy, but I found it beautiful, the epitome of lone sprinting. They are all there, the sprinters. Never heard of Veelers before, the guy who finished fourth. Argos Shimano, a minor team, invited because of the French connection, although they are not French, but Dutch. Hmm, must do some research. They have a young fellow called Marcel Kittel who has already won loads of races, and is riding his first Tour. Apparently he had a bad tunny, and the team sent out another guy, maybe Kittel's leadout man. And this guy beat everyone but the podium. Worthy of attention. A very nice Danish rider called Michael Morkov is king of the mountains. He rides for Saxo/Tinkoff Bank, and they won't win much. So good for him. He was very happy. The top two on the green jersey are Sagan and Cav. With all the others nipping at their heels. Should be good. Nothing much changes in terms of jerseys or GC or whatever happens on flat early stages. Those kinds of stages are for the countryside and the last 20k or so. The young rider competition is waiting for the mountains and the first time trial. Until then, it is pretty much a list of young riders. Mind you, the best of them are already near the top, even though “nothing has happened”. But there is nothing to report. Goodness, unless I can think of something that's it for tonight. No bike ride to tell you about, it was market day today. I always go in for a couple of hours, after I go to the physio. We did have a minor household health scare, but its all right now. One day, I am going to find a way to just do the Tour, so that I am not at home, with all the regular activities of real life, AND a serious Tour obsession. Yeah, right. I am picking EBH for tomorrow, although I don't see how he can beat Sagan Cancellara, Gilbert, Valverde (he IS there), Goss and whoever else wants to join the party. Cav? You don't need a train to win this year.