Tour de France

Cav takes five.

2011-07-24T22:54:00.001+02:00

Stage 21
24 July

I watched most of the stage, then the show after, then I got a whole lot of phone calls of a semi-important nature, and it is already 2100, and I have two hours. Not a great day today for disciplined, well edited work. Maybe, just maybe, I will beg your indulgence about my superficiality tonight, and try to reflect and write a bit during the next week. Usually I am so involved in the Tour that if I don't get out of the “Tour zone”, and begin to do more other things, like stacking the four cubic metres of wood that are coming tomorrow, I get depressed when the Tour zone is no longer. The end of the Tour brings a lot of emotions, none of them deep deep, but still pretty real. Over the years I have learned a few tricks, and usually can avoid the post-Tour void, without too much problem. And this year I got ill in the middle and also had heavy family events. I probably held my life a bit together with the Tour blog. Anyway, I always write it for myself anyway, but I like to share as well. One pal offered to fix me up with some kind of tool which will tell me how people got to the blog, how long they stayed, where they live and so forth. I thought about it, and ralised that I would not learn much that I need to know from such a device. I won't get that puffed up if someone likes it, as some people have liked it for years. I had a very good certified judge of writing who says I can write well, in a certain way. Its not a bad blog. And if it turns out that almost no one reads this, then that really doesn't matter either. I know a few friends read it, maybe as much to find out how I am, as to read a flawlessly written and very knowledgable blog about the Tour.

So it's over. We know almost all there is to know. Slowly over the next few days and weeks, we will find out much more. Details from behind the scenes, how things happened backstage that we never knew. Endless (for those who know where to find them) analysis and lists of best moments, biggest disappointment, best team-mate, revelations of the Tour, etc.

For me it was an excellent Tour. There was uncertainty about all the jerseys almost to the very end. Tour 2011 had magnificent feats. I would say that at least once each and sometimes more than onc from Voeckler, Schleck, Evans, Contador, EBH, Hushovd. Rolland, Sanchez, loads of riders did magnificent feats. There were worse than usual bad bits, the crashes of many riders including a huge proportion of the contenders, those who realistically aspired to top ten. It is best when nearly all the riders are in good shape, uninjured and finish the Tour. Even though crashes and injuries are obviously a part of racing. The most obvious example is Contador. One day we might know what his physical problem was. I am sure that he had mental problems, a lot on his mind. Every jersey was won by someone who worked for it and is deserving for outside the Tour sporting reasons as well as fitting into the Tour rules for jersey winners.

Who better than Evans, for all around performance, and some feats of daring and risk?

Cav, well, there are people who don't like him. I once really liked him, then started to dislike him, and now like him again. If he were my neighbour I might not be best friends or anything, but he would make a good neighbour, within limits. And the incidental thing is that he is the fastest sprinter on earth, with the best leadout train on earth, so he won sprints and the green jersey. Every Tour some teams thinks HTC have a weakness, and that they can exploit the strategy that will destabilise Cav and his train. Turns out they can for a stage or two, Cav does not win every single stage. Knowing that Cav can be beten doesnot mean the opposition can actulaly do it much. Its not like the strategy is new, it been going for four years. They can't beat him, alhtough no one can win every race, even if they are the best. He has already won more stages of the Tour, faster, than anyone in human history. Unless something happens, there is no really good reason to doubt he will surpass Armstrong and Darrigade, which means two more victories. Then in a matter of a couple of years, Hinault will be caught, and eventually assuming things move along OK, he might surpass Merckx in Tour victories. That is 34. The guy is the best, and its good for him to win green once in his career. Now he can leave it for others, unless he gets a taste of it and just win more stages. But as in life, so in the Tour. He may never keep going long enough, fast enough to equal Hinault or Merckx, we just don't know..

Who better than Samuel Sanchez as climber of the Tour? He nearly won two mountain stages, and definitely won one? Almost always there with the best. He never tried to win the jersey, just to win the Tour in the mountains. In my view the most appropriate winner this year. It may be true that all things said, he could be the best climber in more than one GT. He can descend as well. Second place, went to Schleck, who is really not very good at descending. You can't be a good climber if you can descend. In my view. Sanchez can do both and did both during the Tour.

As for the white jersey, I think Pierre is great for it. No one picked him at all, it is humbling and fun to have surprises. On the other hand is well known enough in his own country, has won a few races, and no one is deeply surprised. This Tour could well be the turning point of his career. The question is whether he will be at the level of Chavanel, Gadret, di Gregario, Casar or Voeckler or will be he the level of top ten globally. No one knows yet. He is a very quiet, nicely behaved lad right now.

Reminds me of a story I heard today. A friend or mine and I were having a coffee in the cafe. I like doing that. He said his kid (14), who is a dirt bike fanatic, was glued to the Tour for the first time. Normally he says what kids often say about road bikes. He thinks Voeckler is great. He thinks Rolland is amazing. Alpe de bloody Huez! He wants his dad to buy him some kind of road bike before the school starts up. The impact of the Tour. I tried to fully get into how excited and inspired this kid (who I know) could be, assuming it is not a passing fancy, which I don't think it is. Loads of riders were into many things in their childhood, and it is not until they get older that they get into road racing. Usually as a result of the Tour de France. Sadly this kid may never play out his enthusiasm as my local club does absolutely nothing to encourage or teach or help young people get into cyclo-tourism or cyclo-sportives. Maybe the support is hidden, and I will have to look for it. Anyway, if you can, imagine begin 14, French, into cycling of some sort and being hit between the eyes by the Tour for the first time. The lad knew about it of course, but I mean hit by it between the eyes. So that is my favourite Tour story, except it must have happened many thousands of times in France alone. In fact, a 50 year old friend of mine saw the Tour come by one day years ago, and he became a genuine Tour nutter. The drugs seem to have put him off lately. The Tour bug will bite big with this Tour.

The stage was pretty good too. A quite short little promenade into one of the best known cities on earth. View of many tourist attractions, helicopter shots of everything, then the parade around the downtown area. Same parcours for years. The bit I love best is along the Rue de Rivoli to the end, where it takes the zig left and the zig right in the Place de la Concorde to get into the last few hundred metres of the sprint. I really do like that bit.

Rojas seemed to have more or less given up after the intermediate sprint. Naturally I had picked him to get me a few points, but he didn't mange the top ten. Don't know why, but if he didn't try,he is a bit of a wuss for me. Admittedly it was pretty hopeless after the intermediate sprint which he contested. But hey, it was the Champs Elysée for goodness sake. I think he still could have (logically)won by winning the stage and Cav out of the first fifteen. Who knows, maybe he just decided that Cav was the best this year and he was second best. For me Rojas was one of the revelations of the Tour. He has to be in the list of the “current best sprinters in the world”. What I did like about the stage is EBH trying to beat Cav. I mean EBH has had a great Tour, could not be better. If he snuck past Cav, he would be noticed by all, big time. As far as I can see, the only reason EBH is not fully recognised as a very high class rider is that he has had injury problems for two years. For example, I really would like to see Sagan and EBH go head to head on some of the uphill sprints in races over the next ten years. Unless EBH can learn to climb high hills. Then … Having two young talents like Peter Sagan (too young for the Tour) and EBH, not to mention all the others (Geraint Thomas), bodes well for pro cycling.

By all the others, I mean the five young riders in the top fifteen. This is unheard of. Lose a few of the big leaders, and some excellent young riders step up. I guess, although I have talked about it before, the success of the young riders, French and other, has been one thing that has marked this Tour for me. Often, the older guys were a bit disappointing, but the younger ones played way above what we used to think was their weight. We await future results to know if this younger generation is going to provide us with better sports entertainment. Always a good idea to read over the list of the best young riders at the end of the Tour. Try to remember what they did, what they look like. You will see them again.

In a funny way, although this Tour got rid of way too many very good riders via crashes, it also confirmed some of the more experienced riders. Evans for the best example. He rode an excellent Tour. Did nothing as amazing and historic as Schleck's ride up Galibier, 60k of solo riding in the highest mountains. That is the stuff of legends. That ride will live forever. Mind you some of Evan's towing along a group of others for tens of kilometres, his wee victory early on, his totally massive time trial after three weeks of racing, all that was excellent. Totally deserved victory. Some day I would like to understand the strange deep dislike of Evans in certain circles. He is not pretty, true. He grimaces a lot, looks like life itself is a constant pain, smiles when he cries, cries when he smiles (in public), has a squeaky voice, has self doubts and reveals them, involves himself in deviant causes (Aboriginals and Tibetans), has a complex wife and relationship (unlike some wives and relationships, to my mind), he is just too weird. Sadly for such people he wins races, and sometimes by feats of daring attack or massive solo effort. He seems a more than vaguely interesting cyclist. Probably, almost certainly, rides without doping.

Anyway, I am going on. No need really, the Tour is over. It was a good Tour, the results are known, more little mysteries will be revealed, deals between riders and new teams will begin to leak out in a few days. We will see what lives on from this Tour, what dominates the analyses that should come out in the next month. Should be fun. I do think we had a vintage Tour.

Oh yes, a small fact I learned that I never knew before today. Might be common knowledge. The financing of the Leopard Trek team, essentially the Schlecks, has always been slightly mysterious. Big money comes from this real estate magnate who suddenly decided to put big money into a procycling team. Bazzi, or whatever he is called. I wondered idly now and again why he did it. He clearly is not advertising a product, Leopard is not a product. The other sponsors, like Trek bikes, cars, clothing and tyres and so forth are paying normal advertising rates. They have products to sell. It turns out that Johnny Schleck, the ex-pro father, has been a hunting buddy of this rich Luxembourgeois for 25 years. That's how the team got financed. I never knew about the hunting connection until yesterday.

One last thought. In the unlikely case that I either write or collect “Tour assessments”, I will put them on the site within a month, maybe even a week. So pop back once or twice in the next month, in case I do it. I shall do this next year, unless something happens. Same address, I hope. I wrote 22 blog entries over three and half weeks. They were all somewhere between 2,000 and 1500 words. Not that well edited sometimes, if I were tired or undisciplined. That could be well over 40,000 words in three and a bit weeks. I guess that is how people write books, but at a less frantic pace and stretched out a bit. I am impressed. Too bad I lack discipline and focus. It is fun to do though.

Later.

Evans does the job, Schlecks flop

2011-07-24T00:06:00.000+02:00

Stage 20
23 July 2011

Even the day before the end, we still could have one change, presuming nothing bad happens. We can watch the parade into Paris with a bit of attention to the intermediate sprint and the ride around the Champs with the hope that no one falls off. If it all goes as expected the final jersey, the green one, will be settled. It would be a huge surprise if it were not Cav who wins it.

The holder of the white jersey preserved it with a fine time trial. Andy Schleck, the holder of the yellow jersey did a pretty bad TT, and Evans did a brilliant one. So he wins the Tour. I am pleased. Don't quite know why I went off both Schlecks, but I certainly have. They seem like very talented, extremely fit, slightly flawed, child-like, strategically rigid, whining rich kids. In spite of his not conventionally lovely looks, squeaky voice, and terrible French, I like him. Especially the “him” that has begun to appear over the last two years. He has a bit of depth, the Schlecks seem shallow.

Lets look at the TT. A few less obvious things. Pierre Rolland should have been beaten by Rein Taaramae, who should now have the white jersey. And Pierre WAS beaten. But only by 47 seconds, and Rein failed to win the jersey. So Pierre, after his win yesterday on the Alpe, has kept the white jersey. A minor triumph for a very good time trial under pressure. And a nice little cherry on the cake of the French Continental (second division) team Europcar. There is no doubt that Rolland is going to become another young chou-chou of the French. But it also looks like he might be able to take a step up from being one of the “new hopes”, and become a new “core rider” for the French. He did very well, as he is not a rouleur, not a specialist in the TT.

For me the biggest surprise of all is the fourth place of Thomas De Gendt, from the second division Vacansoleil team. I had no idea whatever that he could time trial (not that I know anywhere near everything, although I did know he likes long escapes), much less beat everyone in the peloton except Martin, Evans and Contador. He beat Porte (another youngish guy who is known as a good TTer), Peraud (former French TT champion), Sanchez, Cancellara, Danielson, EBH, Millar and so forth. I will look for an explanation. The poor showing of Cancellara shows he is unwell or knackered. I wonder when was the last time trial, in any race, where he was beaten by seven guys. Millar, normally an excellent TT rider, finished nearly four minutes behind. Beaten by Cunego! I have to remember that for many of these guys there is no obvious point in trying hard when they nothing to gain. But the case of Millar also requires explanation, as he usually is in the top ranks. You'd think he would ride well just for pride. Or to help his team win the team competition. When is the last time Millar finished 32nd, nearly four minutes off the pace.

Tony Martin is one of the best in the world right now, and he showed it. Contador is also a superb TT rider, and tried his best to overtake Voeckler for fourth, just out of pride I suppose. He finished third on the day. Even Thomas Voeckler tried hard at the end, finishing a respectable fourteenth, 2 minutes behind Martin.

The guys who lost most were the Schlecks. They simply rode badly, pulling nothing out of the bag. Andy, after boldly asserting he would win the Tour yesterday, finished 2 and half minutes behind Evans, and lost the Tour. No doubt he also lost the Tour because their plan, rigidly adhered to, was to NOT attack in the Pyrenees. They lost it there too, but they didn’t even come close in the TT. In fact, almost as if they were riding together, looking for the other brother constantly, they finished only three seconds apart. Andy particularly should have done way better than Frank. Quite a bad performance. Many of you have not heard of Richie Porte, but he was expected in the top ten and did well out of pride, as he was way down the GC. J-C Peraud, who was riding his first Tour at the age of 34, used to be a mountain bike. He managed to prevent Pierre Rolland from finishing in the top ten by riding a good TT. Put another way, he was the second best Frenchman and finished in the top ten on his first go. Four French in the top 14. Twenty percent of the top twenty were young riders.

The guy who rode the most important and meaningful TT is Cadel Evens. He throughly beat both Schlecks and rose to the top of the tree. The gap he created was way wider than anyone thought. Unless something happens, he rode himself in to the yellow jersey for good. In fact, had he ridden a little bit faster, 8 seconds over 42.5 k, he would have WON the entire time trial, and beaten every single rider. This would be incredible, given the work he did on his own, in the mountains. So it was an awesome ride on his part, and added to his earlier stage victory, and his towing the entire GC peloton up many mountains, makes him a totally deserving victor. No need to say “but” in any way. Bravo to Cadel.

Just to keep things in perspective. The slowest rider, the cyclist who just rode fairly comfortably to the end, only took 11 minutes more than the winner. In other words they are all riding very fast, but a few faster than the others. Nobody is loafing, pretending to be a cycle tourist.

As a quick summary of how uncertain and unpredictable this Tour has been, we can go back and review the predictions of the experts in the editorial team of Velo magazine. This is the classiest mag in France. Most of them make their living in the cycling culture, learning about and writing about cycling throughout the world, but certainly during the Tour. NONE of nine predicted Evans would win. NONE of them predicted that Sanchez would win the mountains jersey. ONE of them guessed Cavendish would get the green jersey, and even if Rojas should win, none of them picked him. And lastly NONE of them picked Rolland to win the young jersey (even though he is French), or Taaramae if he should somehow win. So out of the 36 possible correct picks for all the jerseys, they got one correct. This is a percentage of 3% correct, rounded UP.

So much more could be said, but a time trial sometimes leaves one a bit bereft of words. After all, although it is the race of truth, it does JUST consist of one rider riding on his own for a fixed distance. At the end there is a fixed time. The times are rank ordered. No battles, nobody being dropped on a climb, no crashes, no real action of a collective sort. The best way to watch a TT is with a few friends, near a curve, a slight uphill or a downhill. One after the other, same spot. Sounds boring, but it is not.

Cav and HTC should win tomorrow, but I picked Rojas to get more points. One last word about my fantasy teams. I think that without a shadow of a doubt, unless I get some heavy bonuses at the end, this is the worst I have done in years, probably the worst I have ever done. I was a bit hasty and casual with my picks, and really should take it more seriously or just stop. It is not much fun when you do so badly. Its like being in a race and getting dropped early on.

Last blog tomorrow, unless I feel inspired to do a wrap up reflection. I always think I should, but in fact, I am usually glad it is over, and normal life can begin again. Maybe two or three days after the Tour is over, check the blog, see if I have actually done a reflective piece. My cold is almost gone as well.

Do watch the parade to Paris, the first sight of the Eiffel Tower, and the last sprint. There is something really exciting and aesthetically fascinating as they ride across the Place de la Concorde for the last time. Presumably with HTC, probably Renshaw the last guy, after Goss drops them on the Place, towing Cav to the line.

Until tomorrow.

France wins, Contador loses

2011-07-23T00:12:00.000+02:00

Stage 19
22 July 2011

I admit I missed the first fifteen minutes, but to my mind this was a superb stage. As good as anyone could want. I was on the edge of my seat for what must have been three hours. I admit that I had trouble finding a break to pee, although the bit in the valley before the Alpe was a little bit less riveting, but way more interesting than I thought. Climbing and descending are the best. I doubt if I would want there to be a third stage like this without a bit of a rest. In fact, the suspenseful bit of the Tour is pretty much over. I have never got wildly excited about a Time Trial, even if this one will decide the winner, although the podium should be sorted now. Two Schlecks and Evans. Absolutely fabulous start and a totally superb ending. Creation or consecration of heroes at every level. Great racing. One of the best Tours I have ever seen.

I guess most of you know what happened. Contador animated the entire day with his attacks, which in some sense were ultimately unsuccessful. That does not mean they were not brilliant racing. He is obviously not that well. No idea if it is the crashes, the very hard Giro, the tension of waiting for the drugs axe to fall or something else. Maybe all of it. Can you imagine what might have happened if he had been in good shape and without worries. I am sorry about that, but getting to the Tour is good shape is part of the game. He is clearly a magnificent champion, a great racer, even he ends up busted for not watching what he eats. Or shoots up.

The jerseys changed. And it is likely even now, they might not be resting on the final winners' shoulders. What more can we want for suspense? Usually all the jerseys are long decided and the final day is for third or seventh place. Andy Schleck, with his superb ride yesterday, set up the inevitable. He beat Voeckler to the top of the Alpe by many more than 15 seconds and got the yellow jersey at last. The Schlecks were outridden on the Alpe by Contador, but his 34 second lead at the end of the day was not enough to make a big difference. Good for the spectators though. Evans stuck with Andy all the way, and finished in the same time as them, which means that tomorrow he has to gain 4 seconds on Frank to finish second and 57 on Andy to win the Tour. Both of those are possible. Andy is a better time triallist than people think, so he too, if he rides out of skin, could win the Tour. Either of them deserve to win. They have both exhibited huge abilities and big hunger during the Tour.

Cavendish finished with the grupetto nine seconds over the time limit, but all the latecomers were allowed to remain in the race. There was only Leukemans who was way behind, he was eliminated. So Cav will win the jersey, unless he makes big mistakes in the intermediate sprint on Sunday and in the finish on the Champs. Otherwise that jersey should be in safe hands. I am glad for the lad, although I have to say, you find many people who just do not like him. They think he is a great sprinter, but has a deeply flawed character, overly laddish behaviour and a big mouth. I can see their point, but I don't dislike him. He should win one green jersey in his career.

The stage winner, at last, was a young French guy. Pierre Rolland, the faithful companion of Voeckler, was released today (by Voeckler) so he could ride his own stage. Winning a race up Alpe d'Huez is a lifetime experience, you can get free drinks on that til you die. Pierre was so happy he radiated joy, mixed with a bit of pain. He did keep up with and out-sprint Samuel Sanchez and Contador for the victory, so he was very deserving. Such a nice lad on TV. For two years at least, he has been a “promising rider”, and now he has no doubt become “a winner”. He also managed to ride well enough to take the white jersey of the best young rider off the shoulders of Rein Taaramae. I can't say whether he is good enough to keep it after the ITT, but I am sure he will do his best. He needs to finish less than 1.33 behind Taaramae and he will be the victor, assuming nothing serious happens on the ride to Paris. I should think that the entire Europcar team will be riding with him and protecting him. What a day for the lad. He was asked if he knew who the last French rider to win at the Alpe was, and he said no. When told it was Hinault, he was a little taken aback. Then a few minutes later they shook hands. Those young guys did well. In the top twenty there are still four of them.

Voeckler will still be the bet French rider on GC, which no else cares about except the French. This first French rider is often mentioned in the cycling press.

At last the spotted jersey has found its proper home. Since there are no more mountains, the final winner, assuming he makes it to Paris is Samuel Sanchez. He won it rather easily, simply by trying to do well in the Tour, and finishing with a first, and two seconds on the mountaintop finishes. That, to me, is the way it should be won. He is totally worthy and deserves it utterly. He had to beat A. Schleck to the finish to win, so he did. Andy was riding with his brother anyway, having done enough to win the yellow jersey by a long margin. He clearly preferred to ride with his brother than win the spotted jersey. Still, once again, over and over, no one ever cares about that jersey. It just comes by accident.

What I particularly liked about the stage was the uncertainty of the finish, who would get dropped, who would win what jersey. In addition, there were several races going on throughout the day, which I always enjoy. The one we never saw and never will see, is the way the gruppetto of 80 riders or more finds its speed, gathers the lads together, times the last ascent, so they all make it through. In a world of individualist behaviour, its is refreshing to see the lads gang together and co-operate so that none of them get eliminated, even though several of them could no doubt go faster and make sure that the slowest get dropped. They don't do that in the autobus. No idea why Leukemans got dropped so badly. But also we had Contador's first attack and what it brought, and his second attack up the Alpe. Both of those were quite separate in some racing sense, and fascinating to watch unfold. Then there were the minor races for this or that jersey, slowly working their way out during the fight for the stage. And although I have hardly mentioned it much there has been the battle for 'best team', now pretty much won by Garmin, although even that is not totally certain. Really complicated and hard to predict, my favourite kind of racing.

I still don't like the Alps, but they were gorgeous from the helicopter. It is a total bonus to be able to see all that natural and human made stuff flowing past during each stage. Takes one's breath away.

I even enjoyed watching Thomas lose the jersey. I don't know if he would have kept it had he not tried to follow Contador and just knackered himself completely. Had he stayed with the peloton of leaders, he would still have arrived at the foot of the Alpe with everyone, and would have been way fresher. I would say he made a mistake and paid for it. Still, he radiated pleasure and astounded all of the French for days. Without his riding “the French”, and perhaps all of us, would have had a lesser Tour.

So tomorrow we have the time trial, and Sunday the parade to Paris, before we race around the Champs and have the final sprint finish. I am keen to see how the TT goes of course, whether Cadel wins the whole Tour. The nice thing is that tomorrow I can take a nap for sure. I am usually happy to watch 30-40 riders do the TT. I shall try to see Fabian and Tony Martin and a few others, but really I can't be patient enough to watch all of the riders do the same route, one after the other. Live it is much better, you pick a corner or a downhill or whatever, you have a picnic and you can see how each rider does it, and gauge their relative speed, keep track of who is coming next, whether they are late or not. But it is feeling like the Tour is nearly over. Best one in ages. I am glad I was able to spend the time on it.

Later.

Schleck, A. makes his move

2011-07-21T23:57:00.000+02:00

Stage 18
21 July 2011

Well then, what did you think of that one? I fail to see a missing facet in that little jewel. Not one. I should think that this stage will go down in the history of the Tour as one of the very best. The highest (elevation) finish ever in the Tour, and they raced all day really, in bits and pieces, here and there. Supposed to be 3 degrees and windy at the top of Galibier. My goodness, what a great stage. Exactly what the Tour organisers and corse designers had hoped. They must be glowing. AND we have two more days of suspense ahead of us.

I must write this quickly, as I had NO NAP today. I just could not figure out what to miss, and so I was there all afternoon. Glad I stayed. I have to say I find the Alps a little bit inhuman, too pointy and rocky. But awesome on the big HD screen, from a distance. I suspect tomorrow might be like that, nothing to miss. So I need to get this done fast and get to bed early. I should be ready for another day without a nap. The stage is so short there should be action all day, with a repeat climb of Galibier, by another road. My cold is almost gone, by the way.

One thing I noticed when I tuned in was that it took a moment (without using computer displays), to figure out who was where. It was a lovely, confusing and uncertain stage they gave us. Even the gruppetto, the slower guys, made the commissars break the rules, or bend them anyway. Over half the riders were outside the official and objective time limit for the stage. They should have been eliminated. But they weren't and they knew it. What stupid rule applier would eliminate half the field. No way. Some other rule or exception will be cited, like the wind or whatever, and they will all be back racing tomorrow. Or rather struggling with another very hard stage and its even more severe time limit. I would attempt to explain the time limit, but it consists of a predetermined calculation, based on the time of the winner. On hard stages they give the riders more of a break. But there is a precise limit, known when the stage winner crosses the line. http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/COURSE/docs/reglement.pdf (Article 22) Sad bit is that Cav, while staying in the race, loses points on the green jersey for being so slow. Rojas, no dummy and a bit of climber, was in the previous group who made it within the limit, so he gets closer to Cav. Suits me really, if Cav wins on the Champs, he wins. Fair enough.

Its was great fun to ask ourselves for a long time, did Andy do this 60k lone ride for himself, for the yellow jersey, for a stage, for Frank, or was it a big mistake. Views varied. He had gained two minutes after the climb where he rode away from everyone, not one rider followed, except for Rolland, who realised he should stay with Voeckler. Nearly everyone thought he would lose the lead on the descent or in the valley against the headwind. The yellow jersey peloton was full of guys who had a reason to ride hard and cut the gap. Maybe seven or eight. But sadly, they could not come to any agreement, and never made a serious chase. Here we found our second hero of the day. Cadel Evans, who clearly wants to win the Tour, had to work for many kilometres, up a bloody great hill, nearly always in front. In fact he took two minutes out of Andy on the last climb. His team mates were out of it, seemed like no one could or would help him, and he managed to save Voeckler's jersey and his own chances. Mostly by himself. I sure hope Thomas thanks him a bit. Another other hero who emerged was Voeckler, although he has been an unexpected bonus for the Tour for several days now. The wilder French think he might still win.

But the total hero was Andy Schleck. Many people wondered if either of the brothers would ever attack. I reckon they had this plan long in advance. Andy just went away from the entire group on the second last climb, 60k or so from the end. No one does that these days. Usually they wait until the last few ks of the last hill and then someone attacks. As it turned out, Schleck gained time on the first climb, on the valley (huge effort by Monfort) and then finished it off on the last climb. A legendary escape without a shadow of a doubt. Totally worthy of a winner of the Tour. Although it is not over yet. The thing I liked about Andy's attack was that we could sit and discuss why he was doing it? We now know it was obvious, take minutes out of everyone, win the stage and win the yellow jersey, plus the Tour. In one glorious day. The first race he has won since the last Tour. What a brilliant way to do it.

Those are my guys for the day, Cadel, Thomas, Andy. But also Pierre Rolland, who has climbed alongside his leader throughout the Tour, helping, just being there. This guy has now emerged from being a new French hopeful to being a strong candidate for “revelation of the Tour”. Maybe EBH, but he already is an established rider. I noticed that Tom Danielson (older, but riding his first Tour) and his assistant Christian Vande Velde managed to stay with the group, crossing the line sooner than Contador or Sanchez. That Danielson is steady. They all just seemed to have ridden out of their socks. Great racing.

The commentators were funny (sad funny) when Alberto and Samuel Sanchez were chatting at the back of the peloton, trying to figure out what they could do about this move of Andy's. Turns out that whatever they wanted to do they couldn't, both of them lost time, too much time. But the commentators said “They are talking in Spanish”, like they should be talking in French or something! Those commentator guys betray themselves after hours in front of the microphone.

One question that needs a bit of answering, and I might not have time tonight to speculate. Why is it that nearly all the time the group of GC riders was chasing, did almost no one whatever help out Cadel. Sure, they had a few riders help for a bit, but basically for the last 45 minutes, I saw Cadel riding on his own. Were they all whacked? All? Did they not care about preserving time and their jerseys? Could they not speak to each other and make deals? How could a peloton of leaders of the Tour not manage to bring back a smaller and smaller group in front of them? Cadel was a hero, but the rest were something or other. Lazy, shiftless, calculating riders.

Prudhomme had a stern word to say about the boys/men who run alongside the riders, many with their TV time costumes. Prudhomme was well pissed off. My wife says they should have tasers for those guys. I say their falling bodies might cause damage to a cyclist. They just scare me. In fact, because there is so little damage, contact, injury in spite of these stupid lads, this shows me that the Tour is privileged and special event. That all of French history and world justice watches over it. Otherwise there would be injured people spread throughout the route. That behaviour alone is a severe, but incomplete, critique of modern society. Individualism run rampant. Still, “boys will be boys”.

So the jerseys. Vanendert is still wearing the mountains jersey, but new competition has arisen, almost by accident. He will keep it if he wins the stage tomorrow, beating both Schlecks, Evans and Sanchez. I fear he has no real chance, unless he is first over Galibier in a break tomorrow. The other guys just win points for the jersey because they climb faster up the last hill than anyone else. And they will win points tomorrow too. The GC guys all care about the yellow jersey, and the spotted one comes along as a side effect. I am talking about Evans, Sanchez, and both Schlecks who could wear the spotted jersey tomorrow and keep it to Paris.

Voeckler saved his yellow jersey by 15 seconds, thereby becoming an French icon forever. I bet at the end of the year he will beat Yannick Noah and Zinedine Zidane as the most beloved French sports figure. No doubt he will lose it tomorrow, but then we have said that before. Hard to figure Andy can't climb the Alpe fifteen seconds faster than Thomas. Or have we said that before.

The best young rider is no longer Rigoberto Uran, who got dropped big time, but a young French rider replaced him. OK, an Estonian rider on a French team, Rein Taaramae. Uran lost only three minutes on his competitors, but lost the jersey as the race was so close. He maybe able to recover the time. He can still climb, and also TT very well. This is the first time I can remember when the white jersey as been up for grabs for so long. This is a good race in many respects. Three of the top five young riders are French, and four of the top five ride for French teams. Excellent for the French. Not one stage win, but some hope. And then there is Thomas.

The top ten is much the same, even though there was exciting action all day. In that respect it is a bit like a brilliant 0-0 draw in football. Uran dropped out and was replaced by J-C Peraud. Realistically speaking there are only four guys left with a chance for yellow in Paris, the two Schlecks, Evans and Voeckler. However, if another attack of anthology happens tomorrow or someone rides the TT of their lives, we could have a fifth who just creeps in. Viva the unexpected. Green jersey is much the same, but Cav loses 20 points on account of being outside the time limit. So he has to win on the Champs. But he still leads Rojas by 15 points. He really does have to win in the Champs and maybe pick up some points on the intermediate sprint on Sunday.

If there is anyone who shows up as the worst person to interview, saying nothing and barely saying anything either, it has to be Bjorn Riis. Doesn't matter his rider had a bad day, he is always like that. Says nothing, acts like it is a big favour to allow himself to grace a mike for us fans. Someone should talk to the guy.

For tomorrow I have invented a Schleck scenario. They both go up the Alpe fastest, Andy leads Frank much of the time. Then Frank moves out from behind Andy and wins the stage, gaining 40 points, giving him 96. Cadel has been following them and gets 32 for second and totals 82, andy gets third, giving him 94, which is two points less than Frank, who endosses yellow. Nothing else happens on the ITT or the last flat stage and Frank wears spots and Andy wears yellow in Paris. On the podium. Could happen. But first, they have to do well against Evans in the ITT, which will be nearly impossible, so Evans could win. I would not even try to predict the winner tomorrow, no idea at all. Although I will reveal I picked Coppel for today. You can see he did pretty well, but no win.

That is enough for today. There was plenty to write about, a wonderful stage. Must get to bed early.

EBH AGAIN. Norway rocks.

2011-07-20T23:16:00.001+02:00

Stage 17
20 July 2011

Unless you have found and used the SRM reporting URL I sent early on, you might not know that up the hills today, most of the riders (sampled by wearing computer thingamajigs that measure), went up at 140-150 beats per minute. I was testing you, by starting with a geeky sentence, wondering if you would stop reading.

On more important matters, it was another stage that apparently began with 100 kph of deciding which break was “the good one”. A break that had enough teams represented, nobody terribly dangerous to the GC, no huge imbalances. By the time I turned up, the break had six minutes and the rest of the day was sorted. It was pretty clear, fairly early on, that the break would stay away. Although Europcar tried to make sure that the highest ranked man in the break did not threaten the yellow jersey, it was also Garmin who rode. They were trying to protect the ninth place of their man Tom Danielson. In other words, there was no panic, nothing much to lose, nobody who mattered. Having said that, the Tour organisers managed to produce a very exciting spectacle at the end. They have done that a few times. Just to make me happy, it was EBH of the Sky team who won. I have been a fan of his for some time. Nice young Norwegian lad, room-mate of that other nice Welsh lad, Geraint Thomas. Watching the moves of the breakaway as the riders tried to sort out who would win the stage was very entertaining. EBH now has two stages (and a second) in the bag. This haul would make any rider's career. So if anyone doubts it, EBH is now a officially certified ace rider. He is also a massive descender. He really does rank up with Thor, Nibali, Fabian, S. Sanchez as one of the smoothest and fastest descenders in the peloton. Only a short descent, but a tricky one, even dangerous. Good ending to a stage that didn't change much, yet. Foundations have been laid for changes in the next three days.

The second part of the stage race was between the GC guys. There were half hearted attacks on the last climb, but toward the end, Sanchez followed Contador on an attack, and they slipped down that descent quite quickly. Behind them I saw at least three guys go off the road. Tricky. The camera was mostly on the two escapees, riding like blazes for the time gain on the rest. But the last few k were flat, and the two (both of whom will finish in the top ten ITT standings on Saturday) we simply overpowered by the guys they dumped on the descent. There were seven, containing at least two who are also among the best TT guys as well. Plus five helpers. Evans pretty much saved the Schlecks today, I guess.

Did you notice Fort de Fenestrelle, built on a kind of high island in the middle of a mountain valley in Italy just over the border. Incredible structure. Incredible site. Sooner or later it will become a movie set or a holiday resort.

Reporting on the jerseys, not much to say. The white, mountain and young jersey are all pretty much the same. Other than the two leaders, Vanendert and Sanchez, not many other guys are getting ideas about the mountain jersey. It is clear that Sanchez has bigger fish to fry, and will pick up points simply because he is a good climber. Chavanel is showing interest, but is neither good enough, nor soon enough to win. Suddenly it seems to be Vanendert who will win in Paris. I personally had never heard of two weeks ago (even though he has a good classics record this year and I might have known about him). Saw an interview where he said he was thinking of going for the jersey. Kind of accidental. He has to make some effort, since it looks as if Sanchez will always finish ahead of him. So he needs to stick with Sanchez and sprint ahead once of him once or twice at the top … or attack early to get the points ahead of Sanchez. There are only two more days he has to do it, so watch for him popping out. He didn't make the break today, he really just fell into the jersey. No one tries for it any more.

The white jersey is interesting, for the first time in years. It should be fun to keep track of the whereabouts of the white jersey of Uran, mostly red one of Rein Tarramae (Estonian?), the FDJ one (the one with the clover) of Jeannesson, the nondescript blue and white one of
Jerome Coppel (failed pick for today) and the Green of Pierre Roland. That is a great subs-tory that should run until Paris. Very exciting really, the white jersey competition would normally be over by now. Allez the young lads. The Belgian whose name I can't spell Ruijgh has fallen back too far and probably can't gain back enough time. White jersey turned out to be quite interesting, even if nothing happened today to the top five. Or you could say that the finest riders in the world, on this particular finish, were not really able to totally drop these young lads. Oh I forgot, one of them, not the top five, won the stage, his second. The young lads are GOOD. So far. Tarramae gained a bit on Uran, Coppel is about the same, but he is in fifth place. It is a race, each day there will be gains and losses. I hope Uran gets it. It would be good for French cycling is Coppel, Rolland or Jeannesson got it. Even Tarramae since he rides for a French team.

This is a very good little video that I got sent twice today http://vimeo.com/21306164 Old time tour stuff, all sorts of people and riders and situations. A wee gem.

There is a phrase, amongst many, that is used to indicate that while pedalling as fast as you can down a hill, wanting to go faster, but being unable to spin your legs any faster, you've run out of gears. These guys go so fast down hills that they cannot pedal faster and so just move into some kind of scary looking aerodynamic position and just glide. Really is quite wonderful to watch. I never run out of gears. And I have smaller ones than they do. They go really fast. EBH was a great example today, since we already knew about Contador and Sanchez. So smooth, so safe, so right, as they glided around those corners. I would watch a race with the ten best descender in the peloton. As long as I knew beforehand that none of them crashed, I could really get into it. I don't like that element of fear. Mine, I mean.

I liked seeing Thor, World Champion and winner of two stages, holder of the yellow jersey for some days this year, the guy with probably the best Tour of his life and of anyone this year, being the water bottle carrier to his team in the front as they tried to save the ninth place of Tom Danielson. Which they did.

As for tomorrow, it should be some kind of fun to watch at least from about 1200 CET on. That is, all day. No idea how I shall fit in my nap. The climb of Agnel should be hard. Maybe the GC guys will stay grouped, but surely the others won't. So we are almost sure to have two races again tomorrow. Unless one or two of the GC guys get really frisky. Most of you have NO idea how awesome these riders are, all of them, even the slow sprinters and the guys who are just plain tired. To give you a perspective on what they are doing, the highest mountain in all of England is Scafell Pike. 978 metres high. They begin this stage at 355 metres and climb steadily until about 13.30, at which time they are at the height of Scafell Pike. For the next three and a bit hours, they climb, descend, climb, descend and climb again, NEVER lower than the highest mountain in England. My guess is that they will spend maybe even an hour over 2,000 metres, either up or down. That is when your physical body is actually seriously affected. Things will happen. We just don't know what. So I guess Contador is the best bet for this stage. Or if A. Schleck has anything to show. Or maybe someone else. I picked Coppel for yesterday in the end. Missed, but got the idea right. I think Coppel and the French young riders are going to come out of this Tour feeling pretty perky, even though none of them will come close to winning, and some might not even finish in the top ten. So if I don't pick Contador, I will tell you tomorrow.

Haven't mentioned my fantasy teams much. Mainly as none of them are doing all that well. Basically I got a bit unlucky, as did some real teams. Most of my teams had guys who crashed out or were injured. Too many. And maybe I picked some of the wrong guys too. Not a good year.
"I don't like a lot of attacks, it's better with one pace," Boasson Hagen said of his decision to punch his way clear of his companions. "I saw Chavanel attack so I had to close that down. I didn't want to stop because the attacks would start again, so I just kept going and nobody followed. On the downhill, I did it in training and I knew it, I knew I could go quite fast and nobody could catch me."

“The Team Sky rider, who finished alone after countering an attack from French champion Sylvain Chavanel on the Cote de Pramartino climb, said he was eager to get stuck into the descent alone because he had ridden the climb twice in training and watched it several times on video.
"I was looking forward to the descent," he said. "I wanted to go up the climb alone and not have any more attacks, so I bridged up to Chavanel and then went on my own to do the descent at my own rhythm."” Let me tell you, the bits I saw, he was doing it so smoothly I was stunned. My man Eddie.

A story about the rich guy who built or rebuilt Pinarelo and lobbied for a stage should be here. Got his dream. Very interesting, but I don't have time tonight to look up stuff and write it.

A reminder that you can always find pretty good photos of the race, stage by stage, on http://www.steephill.tv/2011/tour-de-france/photos/stage-16/ There is also a very good site for photos on Boston.com, the Big Photo area, but I often can't find it, like today.

Good night. And Thursday and Friday should be long days too. Whew.

Contador returns to action, Thor does it again

2011-07-19T23:09:00.001+02:00

Stage 16
19 July 2011

Feeling good enough to write a short report today. In general, I want to observe that whatever else I might be saying about this or that, I have been entertained, at least at the end of each stage, throughout the Tour. They have managed to construct a route that has made the event pretty interesting, and we think the best is yet to come in terms of big drama in big country. I wonder what would have happened if an entire team (Radio Shack) had not been decimated and the leaders of other teams crashed out. Would have been even better. Nothing is perfect. This does seem to be the year when more important riders crashed than is usual.

Let's look at the jerseys. The mountains jersey is pretty much without serious rider interest. The two leaders are simply those who did well on two mountain stages. As a result of doing well, they got points. There is no one who has yet shown the least interest in actually winning it by positive attacking in the high country. Last year's winner (Charteau) has slipped back into obscurity, although one might claim he is helping Voeckler. Although he is not the last one there for him, Rolland is. So it will probably be won by whoever does well at the finish of each of the next three stages. But only because they want to win the Tour. The polka dot jersey itself is of no interest. In my view they should just get rid of it.

The green jersey, barring something happening, is now in Cav's hands, he has to make a big blunder to lose it. It has a been a pretty good contest. I have not added up the sprint points yet to be won, but in an interview, Cav seemed to think he had won. My guess is that if Rojas or Gilbert looks like they are interested, for example by going in a break to sweep up the few points left, then some HTC action will unfold. But likely they know the results too. Should be fun to see if Cav can take the jersey to victory on the Champs. I imagine the team will be incredibly motivated to do just that. Good photo too. HTC will be pleased to win it, as they set out to do just that. Cav will have to wait until next year to overtake Armstrong and Darrigade for number of stage victories. If he keeps up his current rate, he will have only Hinault and Merckx to beat by August 2012. The guy is good. No idea what might happen if he goes to Sky. Will they treat him as well?

The young (white) jersey, contrary to what I expected, is still very much up for grabs. Given that there are three hard mountain stages and a time trial, during which any rider can lose minutes, the fact that there are SIX young lads within five minutes is incredible. There are six young riders who are currently in the top 20. This is NOT usual. To have six young guys, so far, in the top twenty means that there is a new generation of stars on the way. In fact, since nearly any rider would consider a top twenty very respectable, these guys are already low level stars. This is a good sign. Furthermore, although it might be for bad reasons (crash), the guy whom everyone whatsoever picked to win the white jersey, Gesink, has not even managed to be within shooting distance. He is 32 minutes behind. I never wish ill to any rider, but I do like uncertainty and surprises. This jersey is still up for grabs. While I am slightly disappointed that EBH and Geraint are not high in the standings, I am delighted that Uran is leading. Not that I predicted this, but I knew about him at least. Mind you, I knew about all the young guys except Ruijgh, whom I had never heard of.

To the Big One. Who will wear yellow at the end? I cannot say I think that Voeckler will. Today was a good example. When it went up a bit (second category is not a big deal) and there were serious attacks, he got dropped. It was only a little hill, with a descent that allowed some time to be regained, but he lost 20 seconds to Contador, Sanchez and Evans. He finished quite respectably with Rojas (yes, the sprinter), Gilbert, Taaramae, Velits, F. Schleck, Cunego, a quite respectable crowd really. But not the finish of a winner of the Tour. Most people agree that Evans is now in the best position. If he can follow Contador, or only lose minute on a stage, then he has the Tour in the bag, unless something happens. However we don't know about that, and won't for some days. Don't you love uncertainty? A. Schleck seemed to show nothing much today, he lost more than a minute on Evans and Contador. He couldn't keep up with over twenty guys, including Rojas. So he has to attack. Contador needs to pick up some time before the ITT, so he has to attack. Although he odes a fairly good TT himself and might be able to beat Evans. The Schlecks have to attack. Others might get the idea too.

The stage was really good. At least after I woke up from my nap at about 1530, I was entertained for the rest of the day. I gather the first hour or two was not that great, just fast riding in a bunch and breaks that never lasted. The countryside was pretty good, I was told. I was actually hoping that EBH could beat Thor in the sprint, but frankly, with a leadout man as well, Thor showed who is the experienced wily guy with big legs. EBH has now has a first and a second, so he is doing quite well for a young lad. No doubt he is a star in the making, as everyone thought. He made his move at the right time, after getting in the right break. Thor has had a magnificent Tour. By the way, did you know you say his name exactly like Tour. I noticed he didn't even bother sprinting for the intermediate sprint, which he would have won. I guess has done his sums and knows he is out of it. Looking at the standings of the stage, I am struck by how badly Andy did. He just cannot descend. Basso dropped two places to make room for Sanchez and Contador, losing 30 seconds. He is still not out of it. Cunego and Danielson stayed pretty much the same. Uran moved into the top ten. We are starting to get to the stages where big drops and changes in the GC will occur. So I am going to have to print them out and compare. My impression is that by this stage, there are usually bigger gaps in the GC.

Put succinctly, assuming that Voeckler does not last until Paris, we have seven guys within two minutes of each other, with Voeckler nearly two minutes ahead of them all. All to play for. The only one of them who does not have to attack is Evans. The rest must attack to win.

When we think about “the best team” in the race, it is a bit difficult to figure out who that might be. The computational system the Tour uses is to add up the best three times, the three best riders, for each day's stage for each team. The team with the least time on a stage for their three best riders, is the stage “winner”. So today that was Garmin Cervelo, because they had first and third and 28th, making a total of 10h 39' 58" to ride the stage in total for their three best riders. Each day one adds the day's total to the ongoing total for that team and rank them. Currently Garmin is seven and eight minutes ahead of Leopard and Europcar. But in many people's mind the best team might be HTC. They have the most victories, they are the best organised for the sprint, they ride in front all day sometimes. But when you look at the GC (not the same as the”team calculation”) their top guy is 15th 10 minutes back, 32nd 24 minutes back and 70th 1 hour 15minutes back. All the rest are 124th or worse. In other worlds they specialise and do not give a fig for the GC or the “team prize”, only for stage wins and the green jersey. And in that respect, they are the best. In the tour team competition they rank thirteenth, fifty-one minutes behind Leopard. That is because they only finsh up front during mass sprint stages, which means that other riders are often given the same time as HTC sprinters.

I should also mention one other thing. Although the two expert mags that predicted the winner of the green jersey all thought Cav was worthy of a picture and mention, NEITHER of them mention or have a picture of Rojas or Gilbert, who are second and third. Experts? A Tour of surprises actually. Maybe they got the winner right, if so it will be Contador or A. Schleck.

There are still eight teams who have not lost a single rider.

Cav wins in Montpellier

2011-07-17T21:05:00.002+02:00

Stage 15
17 July 2011

Still in the grip of this cold, no desire to write. On the other hand I had to watch most of the stage, as the route went through the southern limit of where I cycle all year. The roads I know fairly well. Such a treat to see the villages and countryside from the air, and realise I live here. It would've been a good stage to write about. As for the finish, it was not a big surprise, but I could have brought back some nice shots from the busses, the people and so forth.

On the other hand yesterday would've been good to write about too. It would have been fun to write about how interesting a stage could be when nothing much goes on with the GC. It seems that it is all going to unfold in the last week, as many suspected. On the other hand there has been plenty to keep us entertained as spectators. Not least Voeckler. Is he in yellow becasue he is good or because the others don't make many serious moves. We shall see.

Sorry about this gap, I really don't feel like writing. Maybe tomorrow.

Voeckler and Vanendert are Stars

2011-07-16T20:48:00.002+02:00

Stage 14
16 July

Huge stinking cold has overwhelmed me. Watched the entire stage, would've loved to comment on it. But I won't. I am going to bed.

Hope to see you tomorrow.

Hushovd? You are kidding.

2011-07-15T23:10:00.000+02:00

Stage 13
15 July 2011

Note: Feeling a bit poorly today, so probably won't write much. Hope this cold does not get worse.

A stage where not much was expected by most commentators, and if one considers the GC, not much happened. All the leaders rode up the hill and down pretty much together. There was some suspense and there was an interesting break. In fact, we have another example of the break winning in the end. We also have an example of when the peloton showed almost no interest whatever in bringing the break back. None of the escapees threatened any jersey anyone cared about. None of them were in the top twenty.

As usual with the Tour, there was a bit of sadness and a bit of glory even in an uneventful stage. Jeremy Roy, a seemingly average rider, has suddenly become the escape artist of the Tour. He rode off with the break for the fifth time, and this time it looked like he might possibly win his stage. He attacked, he got free on the Aubisque and then tried to ride the descent and the flat bit to Lourdes. Oddly, given his reputation as a sprinter and his bulk (even if he has lost weight to climb better), it was Thor Hushovd, also in the break, who rode up the Aubisque and more importantly down the descent to catch Roy and beat him. It may well be that Thor's descent might be one of the high points of the Tour. Very sad for Poor Jeremy and well-deserved and well-ridden for Thor. Normally we don't see a bulky sprinter riding up a huge climb faster than most riders and then getting the victory. There was also Moncoutié involved, but he was not really up to the task, even though we have to give him credit for trying to win the stage.

Roy got the spotted jersey for his efforts, but he really was on the verge of tears because he didn’t win the stage. We have to remember that winning a stage of the Tour can make a rider's entire career. Roy just was not as strong as the former yellow jersey and current world champion. Roy, even though he lost, makes the other guys look like lazy buggers who are not in shape, not ready to race. No, I still have no idea whatsoever who might actually be trying to win the spotted jersey. So far there is not one rider who indicates by his actions that he want to wear it into Paris. Not one.

Green is still a race between three riders. Cav lost a crucial point or two at the intermediate sprint. He was cruising on automatic behind his leadout guys, waiting to win the stage, when suddenly, as if Cav had not seen him or even been looking, Rojas sped past and took the sprint. Quite careless really. In fact, when he didn't win, Cav got a bit annoyed and pretended that someone else had done something wrong, but he was just being petulant. No irregularities took place. Gilbert raced ahead of the peloton at the end when he realised he could pick up a few points and move into the top ten. He is still serious. All three of them are, separated by only a few points. Hushovd moved back into an outsider position by winning the stage, which was NOT a sprinter's stage at all.

The young riders' jersey is still up for grabs. Differing from the usual scenario, there are only five minutes between the first six riders, none of whom is an obvious victor. But I have to admit that most of the big name young guys have dropped well back. The sixth place guy is someone I have never ever heard of, and have no idea how to pronounce his name, Rob Ruijgh. I am waiting for the young Colombian, Uran, to make his move.

Great shots of the vulture sanctuary. The helicopter shots around the Pic de Midi Ossagau were excellent. It is the first time the Tour has been near this awesome peak. Great in HD.

Jalabert predicted no one much will attack today. He was right. Many had the same thought. I am finding Laurent way too nationalistic for the “reflective commentator”. I am used to it from Thierry Adam (the guy who fills up the space), it is almost “normal” that he be like that, as the Americans and the Brits and the Aussies are. Probably the Italians and the Spanish. But the reflective guy, the expert, is not meant to be quite so against Anglos, Cav, Thor and others. He also has never liked Moncoutié and shows it. Further, Jalabert gave no real credit to Thor, who had a fantastic and surprising stage. Gerard Holz was happy for Thor and says he has panache, which he does. Holz finds it easy to be enthusiastic. Jalabert has a harder time.

Apparently Lourdes is the third most visited Catholic site on earth, after the Vatican and Guadalupe in Mexico.

Yellow jersey, top ten, Gilbert moved up a couple of places with his attack near the end, but otherwise nothing changed at all. It is the general consensus that tomorrow there will be changes, and gaps, and that we will have some serious racing. I await enthusiastically.

Had a nice chat with my neighbours about the Tour. I was walking home and I heard the word Contador as I passed, so I drifted over and chatted. You can do that easily during the Tour. Many people, especially but not exclusively men, have notions to share. Me too.

This was a typical transition stage. A “transition stage” is a stage which is between the stages where real racing between the GC contenders happens, and it is also NOT a “sprinters' stage”. The transition stage is where someone totally unpredictable wins, mainly because no one else really cares that much. The GC guys are resting, getting ready for the “real stage” which will shortly happening in the big mountains. A transition stage is often needed just to cover the distance between the important stages, without train or plane transfers which riders do not like. But it is strange to have a “transition stage” with the mighty Col d'Aubisque in the middle. Still, there is some “racing” in the transition stage, and often a very good story about the escape that usually wins. We had that today for sure. Even after all these years, it is still strange to see an entire peloton of fifty or more riders just cruising up a mythic hill. Although their idea of cruising is faster than anything any of my pals or I could even dream of doing.

Andreas Kloden has stopped riding. Too much back pain from a crash. Levi Leipheimer is the only one of four 'leaders' still left for Radio Shack. Bad luck. Chickens coming home to roost maybe. Gert Steegmans (Quick Step) was a non starter, while Vladimir Isaichev (Katusha) and Lars Boom (Rabobank) dropped out during the stage.

Tomorrow is a very hard stage. I would be shocked if there are not battles, tragedies, changes in the top ten. Well, not shocked, but seriously disappointed in the riders. This is where they can attack and make a difference. There are two second category climbs, two first category and a “beyond category” climb at the end. Oh, a third category as well. The Col D'Agnes, about sixty K from the end, is meant to be rather hard, and might be where serious attacks 9from afar) could happen, assuming all the big guns do not wait until the last climb to do their stuff. Most likely the GC guys will just ride together until the end, then try to gain a few seconds, although I dearly and desperately hope I am wrong. Maybe a few of the climbers who have lost huge amounts of time might go for a break. If there is anyone at all who cares about the mountain jersey, they really have to make themselves visible in this stage. They should be in a break after the sprint, which is only 36 k into the stage, after a second cat climb. If some climber in the break succeeds in getting a substantial lead, then they will have the spotted jersey and might well try to defend it in the Alps. I would say Roy might try, but surely he cannot attack like that three stages in a row, in the mountains. Evans should pick up a few points, but he must be too far behind to ever catch all three sprinters in the green jersey competition.

Winner … I said Tom Danielson on my forum, just because the real favourites were taken. I figure it will be one of those who think they can win the Tour, but I really don't know which one. Basso, Alberto, Schlecks, hard to pick really.

Should be a good stage, from 1400 CET on, with the real action starting around 1500.

Can't wait.

First Mountain Stage, Sanchez attacks

2011-07-14T23:18:00.000+02:00

Stage 12
14 July 2011

We know a bit more about the Tour now. We also are beginning to accumulate a few heroic stories, more bad luck, more emerging stars, and gradually getting an idea about the yellow jersey. The Tour has definitely reached a serious stage. Tomorrow, I doubt if the stage will be won by a star. After the only climb of the day, a very hard one, the Aubisque, there are forty k downhill mostly, to the finish. This usually means that many of the GC guys will ride up the hill together, no one will attack, since they would be caught on the descent or the flat bit near the end. However, if a a couple of non-threatening riders from one of the GC teams are in the break, and they get to the top with a small time gap, their star could attack at the top of the climb, and catch up with his mates on the descent, then time trial to the finish. It has happened. Mostly likely there will be a break, maybe with a few guys who are close to the spotted jersey, or who want to win it.

I would have liked it better if Geraint Thomas, becoming one of my favourites, had won the Goddet Prize for getting over the Tourmalet first. But he was second. Nevertheless, a very good showing for the lad. It must be added, also for his companion, Jeremy Roy. They still use newspapers sometimes for descending, too keep the wind from penetrating the jersey when it is all sweaty. Others like Thomas V., have a specially made cycling gilet. In his case, yellow. I do love watching descents, probably because they are a bit exciting and dangerous, and also because I cannot descend fast, too scared, too cautious, not a good enough bike handler. So I can only watch the guys who can and enjoy it.

As expected by some, the GC guys just climbed the Tourmalet together and nothing much happened until the last climb. And then, GC-wise, only the last few kilometres. Views from the helicopter were missing. Fog. Nevertheless, we know more.

Chavanel tried for glory on the 14th, but he is not in good shape. Geraint and Jeremy Roy did a fine breakaway display. Pierre Rolland did a spectacular job for Voeckler, crossing the line in plenty of time to save the yellow jersey. Next to Thomas and Roy, he impressed me most today. A young French hope, only 24 and capable of climbing with the very best in the Tour. Voeckler was pretty superb as well.

Of the Top Ten, several had bad days, or are not going to figure in the GC this year. Tony Martin and Peter Velits dropped out of the top ten. So did Philippe Gilbert, Klöden, LL Sanchez and Jacob Fuglsang. They didn't totally disappear, some of them will be back. Maybe. Tony Martin is not a great climber, but has also been busting a gut for Cav. I expect he might hang loose until the ITT at the end of the Tour, and forget going up mountains fast. I can't explain Peter Velits just yet, he might come back. Gilbert has discovered that he can't really climb in the high mountains, but he certainly kept up until the very end, so maybe he will find a new identity in this Tour. Fuglsang is a bit of a surprise, let's hope it is a temporary setback. He is one of the last guys that is meant to be with the Schlecks. He wasn't. LL Sanchez has yet to really succeed in the high mountains.

To fill those empty spaces there are some overall contenders for the GC drifting up. Ivan Basso rode without a mistake, and is in fifth. Cunego also followed the wheels, but was unable to do anything except finish very respectably, now in sixth. Contador moved up to seventh, and has to figure out if he can do better and whether he can attack. He still is two minutes behind Frank, and while he is obviously physically troubled, maybe even mentally, he needs to find a space to attack. Maybe the Alps. The Schlecks found him out today, one attack, another attack, and when he didn't follow, it was Frank who took off. Mind you, no one else responded either. Maybe they were all not very worried about Frank getting a few more seconds. Samuel Sanchez moved up to eighth with his fine ride today. No reason to suppose he won't stay there, he seems in excellent shape. Tom Danielson, the 33 year old American who has promised much, but never ridden the Tour before, enters the top ten. Filling it out we have Nicolas Roche, who has been lying low for days. When the road went up, he was ready. The top ten now looks very much like it could be at the end of the Tour. Not sure who might crash it, until I look …... Yes, still room for plenty of new faces in the top ten, notwithstanding events. Maybe the way Voeckler has ridden, he will keep the jersey for two more days, but eventually he will make way for another rider. Ten guys have to gain five minutes on him in the next few days, and then he is out. Maybe he will cling on and finish “Top French Guy”, that would be cool. Mind you he can't time trial to save his life, so probably he will drift down slowly and disappear just before the Champs.

The guys who might move into the top ten include Velits, Tarramae, Leipheimer, Uran. Of course, for the sake of courtesy there should be a couple of French guys, maybe Rolland or Coppel. Sometimes the top French guy is only 25th. I hope there will be surprises in the top ten. Certainly quite a few good riders, who might have just had a bad day, will be making breaks in the next week or so. These are the good riders, who have lost 10 minutes or more already. Take a look at the list, there are plenty of them.

Tomorrow, the green jersey intermediate sprint is JUST before the Aubisque. It is a bit lumpy before that, so I think Gilbert might take the points, after the escape mops up the big ones. Gilbert is 26 points behind, and there are 20 on offer, even if there is no escape. None of the three big contenders will make it over the Aubisque and contest the final. Although I suppose Gilbert might … Of course we might also watch Evans in the next few days, he should get a few points, more or less for finishing with the leaders in the mountains, maybe even nicking a stage. For example today he picked up 11 at the finish. And then there is Rojas.

As for the mountains jersey, Samuel Sanchez earned it today by finishing first on this stage. It is not obvious he will go for it, we shall have to wait for two days to know his intentions. No way he is going to be allowed in a big break anymore, he is way too dangerous on GC. So I doubt he will be wearing it in Paris. Who then? I have no idea yet. Too many mountains to come, and everyone who scored mountain points today earned them, but almost by accident, by winning a stage or by being in a break. No one was really trying to be the mountain king. Do glance at the standings, they will tell you nothing. Where is Anthony Charteau? Does anyone care?

Gesink was a big loser today. He seems poorly. The young jersey is up for grabs. Contrary to my expectations and predictions, there is NOT a huge gap and the best young rider contest is very close indeed. Given that one can easily lose five minutes on any climb, the fact that the top ten young riders are within 8 minutes of each other, means this race, which will be one of attrition, is still going. That's great, and a bit of a surprise. Nearly everyone said it would be Gesink in a walk. Nearly everyone. And yet, people you may never have heard of are in the top ten. Nice extra event to observe. Speaking of young riders, Kreuziger can descend very well, and yet he did not catch Geraint and Roy coming off the Tourmalet. Something is wrong with him, especially since he is young rider and should not be so far down. He is the leader of Astana for goodness sakes.

Cool watching the peloton with all favourites on the last climb. Looking. Wondering. Deciding. Doing ... what? Mostly waiting, conservative so far, no big attacks. The Schlecks did well, but could have done better. Evans just hung on. Maybe they will try harder tomorrow. I love to watch the reduced group of climbers while they wonder what to do and when.

Big losers. Gesink, Kloden.
Little losers, Contador, Gilbert, Velits, Fuglsang.
Big winners, Voeckler (had a special gilet yellow), Sanchez (two prizes, stage and jersey).
Little winners, Schlecks (especially Frank), Cunego, Basso, Jeannson (didn't even know he could climb), Cadel, Levi, Vanendert (How many of you have ever heard of him before?), Cavendish, Tom Danielson, Rolland.

They ride at 35kph average for this stage, up three climbs I could not do in a day. I can ride that fast on the flat, for one k or so. Respect. Mind you, they are all young, and that's all they do. Still.

I won't have to learn to spell young Galimzyanov's name this year, he did not finish. That is, he finished, but somehow got dropped by the big peloton of slow guys, and finished outside the limit for the day. Each day, riders have to finish within a certain percentage of the winner's time, based on how hard the stage is. So if you loaf along taking it wasy in themountains or are injured, and finish way behind, you are out. Although they make exceptions sometimes for heroic finishes. Galimzyanov is Russian, so no exception. Feillu did not start, tendonitis he said. Two sprinters have had enough. I reckon we will see the young Russian back in years to come.

The historical story of the day on TV, with movies and stills, was about Eugene Christophe, interviewed by Robic or Bobet, great heroes of France. He was the first guy to wear yellow, in 1919. There was no jersey before that. In fact, you might not know that the green jersey only appeared in 1953, the mountains jersey in 1933 and the white jersey in 1975. I rode with Christophe toe clips for years.

Lourdes, stage finish tomorrow, has the second most hotels in France behind Paris, 200 or something. 11,000 buses a year. Who might win? Well, I guess Gilbert might take the points at the intermediate sprint, or I suppose Rojas or Cav could, it depends a little bit on the break and a little bit on how lumpy the route really is in reality. Lumpy, Gilbert. Not so lumpy, Cav. Unless, HTC want someone to try for the stage. Since they really don't have anyone very close on the GC, maybe they will just do Cav for the day.

It feels good for them to be in the mountains. Things happen more, riders move up and down, weaknesses and strengths appear. The stage unfolds more slowly, better drama. Scenery is superb, especially if the helicopter works. In a couple days I shall, if nothing happens, be watching in Montpellier. Doubt if you will see me on TV, there are sooo many people at the finish. I will try to get a few pics, as I won't be able to write much, with the travel and so forth. Still, Cavendish will win.

By for now.

Cav gets number three

2011-07-13T21:20:00.000+02:00

Stage 11
13 July 2011

I am really quite glad the stage was not terribly eventful. Tonight is the night they do the fireworks and I want to get this posted before I go. As I suspected, I am mostly looking forward to tomorrow, trying to figure when I should take my nap. I climbed the Tourmalet exactly how they are doing it, except I stayed in St. Marie overnight before I set out. I always like this bit of the Tour as I met a guy who I am still pals with in the hotel that night in St. Marie near where Eugene Christophe famously fixed his broken fork. My pal might even be reading this. Hi John.

The stage itself was quite standard, I fear there is more than me getting a little bit tired of a break that consists of majority French guys and another one or two. The six stayed away nearly to the end, when the sprinters' teams caught them. Then today, with it being flat, there seemed to me nothing anyone could do about the HTC lead out, and Cavendish finished it off. What an excellent team they have. I love watching the changing jerseys at the front for the last fifteen k, and especially the last few k. I must watch the videos of these sprints ten times each. I thought Cav was a bit short of help toward the end, but I guess not. He also took the green jersey, and I expect he will not want to part with it. There are two more stages where there is a sprint finish, the one I am going to in Montpellier and the the final in Paris. I figure Cav for one of those, at least. They do say he is going to sign for Sky next year, and I wonder if he will miss his leadout guys. Maybe Thomas, EBH, Swift will subordinate their personal careers in the Tour to lead out Cav, but I wonder. He has the finest leadout in the world now and I wonder if he would be wise to change. In any case, I picked him for today, so I get a few points.

Cav claims today that Greipel made one of the finest sprints he has ever seen yesterday, and that they get along fine. Odd thing to say. Not even gracious, as if it took the greatest sprint ever to beat Cav, then...

Looking at the green jersey competition, as it is the only one of interest now, we can see that assuming Cav wins one stage more, and picks up a bit in the intermediates sprints, he has the jersey. Maybe Gilbert has a strategy. For example, stay with the peloton and take points at the intermediate sprint, even if it is after a climb or two. We already know that Gilbert is going to see how he goes in the mountains for the first time. He will not join the back-markers, the bus, like Cav will. If Philippe goes well, then he could take a few points and maybe compete. But I somehow doubt it. It is very remiss of me, but I keep forgetting Rojas. He is serious, and is very capable and fast, without a huge long train like Cav. I guess Rojas has made his name, but I wonder if he can beat Cav, ever. If Gilbert fails to get points in the mountains, then it will be as it is now, in Paris. I am secretly hoping I am wrong and there will be a bit more up and down in that competition. But I don't think so. Mind you, there are a lot of mountains between here and Paris, so anything can happen.

Notice in fifth and sixth place two young sprinters, EBH whom I have already mentioned often enough, and the young Russian, Galimzyanov who has steadily placed and shown he will one day win a stage or more.

No change in GC, no change in yellow, no change in spotted, no change in young rider. Nothing to report. Actually nothing much to observe either. Other than the appalling rainstorm. We had a terrific one here as well. But the weather is meant to be good in the mountains during the next days. Hoogerland probably won't be able to keep up tomorrow, and with big points on offer, he will lose the jersey. Although apparently everyone loves him on the roads of the Tour. People will always remember him now, his identity is made. Since he is also a good rider, maybe his career is made. We will see how Gesink goes tomorrow. If it all goes as predicted he will not even get threatened on the white jersey. Heroic Thomas, we shall see. He should get dropped during the climb of the Tourmalet, but maybe will last until the final climb if they are all cruising along in a big group. Even up the Tourmalet they can do that sometime. It is the French National Day so Thomas will try hard to stay in yellow. Last thought, we have utterly no idea whatsoever who might be interested in the Mountains jersey, so as the green jersey competition dies off a little, the mountains jersey becomes slightly interesting, maybe. As it should be.

John Gadret out. Just wasted after the Giro. Like he said he was. His boss made him ride. Shame really, he was on one of my teams. Feillu out too apparently, tendonitis. He thought he would try for his victory one more time. I have not become fond of Feillu, even when he gets interviewed.

Usually, at this point of the race, I can take the top fifteen and note that several of them will disappear as soon as the road goes up. The sprinters, for example. But this time, there has been so much action with crashes and hill finishes that the top ten does look full of riders who can climb as well. No sprinters left in that GC. Most of those guys will still be there tomorrow night. I will say, and I will try to remember when Paris comes, that ALL of the guys in the top ten, will be from the top twenty on today's GC. Merely a question of who goes down and who comes up. Presumably Voeckler will go down, and Contador, for example, will come up.

But such speculation is not what I want to do tonight. Its the fireworks. I need to eat and be gone before it gets dark. I need to hang around a bit, see who is there before the fireworks start. After I will just come home. Should be a big day in the mountains, and I want to get a ride done in the morning.

As for predictions, I don't really have any strong feelings or intuitions. It could be someone from a break, someone who is way behind and just has a really good day. Guys like Uran, Gautier, Van Garderen, Moncoutié, Dupont. I predict a French winner if this scenario happens. Or it could be the winner from a wee pack of heavy guys who ride up together, Evans, Schlecks, Contador and whoever can keep up. Or someone ambitious, but not an immediate threat, could ride off and no one chases fast enough on the last climb. Like Danielson, Cunego or Vande Velde. Most likely it won't be one of the big stars, as I think they will ride up together and none of them will attack. The outsider winner would have to be from a team that is unlikely to win the Tour, as all the workers for that team (BMC, Leopard, Saxo, etc) will be keeping their boys back to stay with the leader. The leaders will be cautious on this first climb. Oh yes, and I reckon another leader will fade out of the GC today, but I don't know who.

Another small thing to watch is whether Evans will manage enough points in the mountains to threaten Gilbert or Cav. I don't think there are points for the ITT, otherwise Evans would have a good chance to overtake. We shall see.

See you in the mountains.

Omega outwit and out-ride Cav and HTC

2011-07-12T23:07:00.000+02:00

Stage 10
12 July 2011

I might be a little disorganised or might write poorly for a bit (like I did Sunday night). Tell you about it later, but my apologies. Heavy lightning tonight. Must send this out without editing. Sorry.

Racing results first, then extra stuff if I have time and energy. I really did appreciate the rest day. Tomorrow when I write, I will be looking forward to the big mountains. The Tour starting to come together, although sometimes it seems to be falling apart. Like life.

Reflecting on the past week or so, I really found myself getting upset or disturbed by the injuries or potential injuries to so many leading riders. There have been some good racing moments at the end of nearly every stage. Take a team like Radio Shack. They started with four guys, any or all of whom could be in the top ten, suddenly, with many days to go, might have NO fully functioning guys to ride for the GC. I don't even LIKE Radio Shack. We won't find out how well Leipheimer and Kloden really are until Thursday afternoon. Popovych is also hut for them. As for missing riders, it is more or less normal to have only nine teams of the 22 with all their roster intact. Maybe a bit above the average, as we have not even reached the mountains. But the thing about this Tour is so many outsiders (anyone who might get in the top ten except Schleck and Contador) are invovled. Out or injured. Kreuziger, Contador, Leipheimer, Gesink, for example, are still riding, but if you read a bit, it appears they are not at all in good shape. Haven't heard anything bad bout S. Sanchez or Evans yet. Chavanel might not be able to win a stage, he is suffering. Thank goodness for Voeckler, from the French point of view. However, a guy like Samuel Sanchez who is meant to threaten the podium, is not meant to be five minutes off the pace BEFORE the mountains and without a long TTT. This means it is a Tour of surprises, but on the other hand, they are not really good surprises.

Overall. Doing well enough, Evans, S Sanchez (stretching it), both Schlecks, Kloden if his back doesn't go, Basso (not out anyway),P. Velits ... Out, Wiggins, Horner, VDB, Vino, Kreuziger (probably, lost six more minute today).

Green still with Gilbert, who is deadly serious about it. He wants to take it to Paris. Today he knew he would not beat the sprinters, so he decided to help out Greipel beat Cav. He was actually a team-mate. He attacked, as far as I can tell, to try and upset the pattern of Cav getting to the finish with five guys in front. It worked. Cav actually was alone when he attacked, following the wheel of Daniele Oss, from Liquigas, who was just trying to win by attacking from afar. First Greipel was following Roelandts, his teammate. Then Greipel followed Cav's wheel, pulled out, and went past him. Not many can go past Cav, unless they planned well and Cav and his boys were affected by Gilbert's attack. That is, the HTC team had to work really hard on the hill just before the sprint. Some of them never even were there at the end, Renshaw, Eisel. Admittedly Gilbert lost some points for green, but he still finished 14th.

Yellow is the same. Nice to see Thomas V. in the last escape, green and yellow in the same little group ahead of the peloton. Not terribly sure I would have gone when Voeckler did. Why not let the others get away and not care? Just hang at the front of the peloton, just behind the HTC lads. Surely it was obvious there was nothing to be won today, as Gilbert must have known. By the way, no time to discuss, som epeople are not Voeckler lovers. They think he has made mistakes. Later.

Spotted jersey carried all day by the hero, Hoogerland. I don't want to exaggerate, but I saw the crash. I saw the cuts. I saw him get stopped by being caught in mid air by a barbed wire fence. Then he kept up with everyone today. He is a hero for me.

Gesink still in white. We don't know whether he is getting back in shape or whether he is still weakened. Thursday. They asked him how to pronounce his name. It is NOT a hard G. It something a bit like in Hebrew when they say Chutzpah. A kind of guttural H. Hesink more than Gesink, but with gutturals in the H.

They found the “woman in yellow” whose placement on the side of the road caused several riders, including Contador to lose over a minute on the very first stage. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2325 L'Equipe found him and brought him to meet Contador on rest day. Nice picture of them shaking hands. Yes, him. Just about 13. A kid. Never been to the Tour before. Mostly plays rugby. He swears that his feet were never on the bitumen, he was on the side of the road. He was looking toward the disappearing back of riders to identify the French ones. He even has a mark on the large T shirt he wore. Also an autograph from Alberto. That's the kind of story I would go for if I were a reporter on the Tour. Kid has funny hair.

More in the paper about Alberto's knee. No one knows. He has fallen three times or is it four, did he fall today? Anyway it hurts. You can't ride a bike well with a hurt knee, you just can't. We will see Thursday when someone else attacks. There are plenty of riders with motivations to attack. Including Alberto of course. I really hope someone goes for it. Anyone will do. A young French lad, A Brit, a Basque guy, anyone.

Someone found this site, I think from my forums. It use is self-evident, and useful in the moutnains especially. http://videos.lachainemeteo.com/videos-meteo/tour-de-france-et-orages-64940.php while we are at it, someone also pointed out this interview with Rigoberto Uran, the Colombian who rides for Sky. I think he will win big one day, and I am not alone. He was in one of Thomas's videos, sleeping on the way to the race start.
http://www.cyclinginquisition.com/2011/06/choosing-to-forego-revenge-and-looking.html

The feature articles specially written for rest day in L'Equipe were about the caravan and young French riders. No time tonight to reflect on the caravan articles. Maybe after I go to see the sprint finish on the 17th. Might gets some pics to illustrate. With the young guys article, there was a long series of quotes about French cycling in general and why it is really a bit mediocre now. All of the principals were French team directors. Again too lengthy for this blog, but most French observers have discussed this over the last two years. The actual NEW young French guys they tip to move up are Romain Sicard 23, Tony Gallopin 23 (written before the break today), Johan Le Bon 20, Thibaut Pinot 21, Arthur Vichot 22 Cyril Gautier 23, Olivier Le Gac 17 and Arnaud Demare 19. Voila. Now you know the names. You just have to wait. OR go to Wikipedia or the team sites for more info. I had a guy figured three years ago, Fabien Taillefer, then he got sacked and some kind of doping problem and …

Good article on Hoogerland and the crash. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303812104576439862756666174.html

The sprint was rather full of somewhat hidden meanings for some of you. Greipel used to ride for HTC, until this year when he left to ride for Omega. Greipel and Cav did not get along well, sprinters are a bit strange and maybe more individualistic than others riders. Cav has said many times that there is no way Greipel could beat him. Greipel was a second rate sprinter, Cav was best. Except today. I see the result, the defeat of Cav, as a well worked, carefully devised strategy to figure out “how to deal with Cav”. Today there was a hill just before the finish, and that is where Gilbert attacked. Hard. By doing so, he wasted maybe a couple of Cav's train, and tired him out a bit, so Greipel could beat him. Which he did. The third place guy, Rojas does not appear to have gained much ground after Cav attacked. Feillu wasn't that close. Thor stopped pedalling when he saw he would lose the stage. By the way, I now think that Thor is NOT that serious about green. Watch the video. He stopped pedalling before the finish, once he had lost the stage win. The green jersey is now mano a mano, Gilbert vs. Cav. One important stage will be the one that finishes in Montpellier. Flat. The interview with Greipel after the stage was really really boring. He spoke like a dumb cyclist. Told us nothing. I prefer Cav for interviews. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2618

Hejsdal was not well on the climbs. He was good last year.

The first break was interesting for me. Vichot is one of the very young, 22, hopes for French racing at World Level. He is good at everything, and most people think he needs a couple of years to mature a bit, and then bingo. El Fares, who is what they call a “puncheur”, good in strong fast bursts that are longer and harder than sprints (Gilbert, for example), is also “from the diversity” as some now say. He is of Maghrebin (North African) origin. This is the exact time of history when non-vanilla French guys are breaking into top level cycling. I think it is exciting and well worth paying attention to. El Fares is also pretty good, but he is 26 and so he should be producing victories now. Will he? So seeing Vichot and El Fares in the break was kind of additional interest. Not to say Cyril Gautier, 23, puncheur, who also interests me French wise.

I suppose it will be on You Tube, but both my wife and I rather liked watching Thor (or anyone) change shoes while riding or rather while hanging on to the car while not pedalling. Take a look.

Best display for the day in the farmers' competition was the map of France, quite accurately outline in a field, with a dot in it. It said “Vous Etes ici”, which was, of course nowhere at all. Excpet it worked, I remembered. It was Almayrac, Almyrac. Check it out. First prize so far. I could not figure out what material they used to make the white marks for the map.

I was wrong about the break today, it was a sprint. So tomorrow, I don't even know if I should guess. Fewer climbs, last fifteen k look almost flat, the last five k are totally flat, even a bit downhill. I imagine any person wishing to appear wise would say Cav. I do too, although I will try to guess someone else, to win more points tomorrow. In our fantasy guessing, you don't get as many points if you guess Cav, along with ten other people. Speaking of which, my Fantasy team in one league is not doing well at all. I tried going for really cheap sprinters, and spent my money on climbers and GC guys. AND I picked Wiggins and VDB, both of whom are out completely. Also picked Leipheimer, who seems to be limping. In short, my cheap sprinters did nothing, and I don't have many GC guys left. It might be worse than last year. Still I have spared you the details of those fantasy leagues. But they do take up time.

Until tomorrow.

More crashes, Voeckler in Yellow

2011-07-10T23:46:00.003+02:00

Stage 9
10 July 2011

Where we had our picnic

Tomorrow is a rest day, and after Thursday, we can relax a little and maybe not have such a bunch of crashes. I am getting upset more than I like.

News of the day, bad news overall. Two leaders of teams out with a crash. The day after vino almost won a stage, he crashes out. Not really a happy way to end your Tour career. In the same crash, Jurgen Van Den Broek also crashes out. I already mentioned that I don't like crashes, not because I don't know that life is full of bad breaks, but because it is such a tragedy for the spectator and for the teams. But it happens. So we have had several team leaders out or injured already, Chavanel, Brajkovic, Van Den Broek, Vinokourov, Wiggins, Zabriskie. I don't think this is usual. Two big crashes and 8 abandons in one day. Millar crashed, Kreuziger injured. And lately, rumours that Contador's small crash at the start (caught his handlebars in Karpets' saddle) was not so small and that his previously injured (another crash) knee might be affected.

But hey, Thomas Voeckler in yellow! How about that. I doubt that very many cycling fans would not like to see Thomas in Yellow. He is a kind of well mannered, modest, moderately talented, attacking type rider. He knows and says that he is not that great, but yet he wins and does so in pretty interesting ways. In my mind, the jersey is not so much for this escape, he could have missed it. It is a mid life reward for the general way that he rides. It is the universe saying we like a totally clean, attacking, modest, non-'people' type rider. I so think he is riding clean that if he got caught doping I would be really sad, for many days. “Many years ago, Thomas, you wore this sacred jersey, it helped you become who you are today. Its time you wore it again. Clearly you are not going to win the race, but here is the jersey, we want to write about how cool you are.” Even non-French people like him. I just thought those two actions in the Tour were typical of a good Tour, no matter who wins. Voeckler wearing yellow and crashes wiping out team leaders, favourites or other good riders entirely. One makes you happy the other makes you sad. Can't get away from it.

Nice award to Hoogerland and Flecha for “most competitive”. And a sort of justice that Hoogerland will wear the spotted jersey for another day if he can actually ride. I suppose it should be easy to watch that car swerve suddenly to avoid a tree in the road, apparently not seen before the last moment, just when he was passing a little thoughtlessly. Both left wheels were already off the road, he should have never been there. I figure the guy made a bad driving mistake. If he had crashed into the tree, I guess all the riders would have got wiped out. Choice, should he have knocked over two riders or all of them and wrecked the car and held up the whole Tour. Both wrong, he should never have been in the position to make one of two horrible choices. He drove badly. He should apologise to those at the very least. Maybe have a huge fine, and loads of points. Maybe jail. Certainly off the Tour.

I don't have every cyclist's correct name spelling in my spellchecker. Thomas, I have had on for ages. His team also rides Colnago, like I do. One thing I don't understand is why some people call him Tommy. Sharing the name, I assumed you stopped calling boys that “diminutive” (unless they like it, for example in the Southern USA where there are adults called Tommy, or Jimmy or Billy) when they grew up. I think the French commentators call himThomas.

Hushovd quite happily gave up his yellow jersey, it just was not worth knocking the team out over long, heavy roads, for a jersey that had a good life on Thor's back. Thing I like about Thor and Voeckler is that they have good smiles. When they are happy, they show it. Not all riders do that. Makes the spectators like you, if a rider does that. Thor was a great leading man in the show for a few days. And Thomas … really, you could not pick a better rider to wear yellow for a bit than Thomas. No way he can keep it all the way to Montpellier on the 17th, where I will l watch the finish near the rugby stadium. But Voeckler COULD keep it until Bastille Day on the 14th, only two more days of riding. It would make good photos to have Voeckler, ex-French champion strips on his yellow jersey, doing more than just wearing it on that day. Maybe doing something with panache. Sadly it is up some heavy mountains, so I doubt Thomas will have the jersey in the evening of the 14th. Hope he keeps it till then. The French put on the show, they should have one of their own riders do a little bit of good stuff now and again. Rather Voeckler than Casar, any day. I know the French have not really got anyone remotely like the big champion they want, but they have Thomas. He will do for a bit. Maybe he will make a desperate last sprint on the 14th, trying to keep the jersey from some climber who attacked. Even Voeckler in yellow could not possibly keep up with a good climber for long. The climber finishes, Thomas struggles, the countdown starts, and then, at the end, after very good close-up shots, Thomas (fill in verb) the yellow jersey. Good show, good rider. More like him would be GOOD.

The green jersey has now got a serious front runner, Gilbert. If he keeps riding in the medium mountains like he has been, then he can pick up a fair few points, even if he can't out fight the real sprinters on a flat stage. Not too many of them left in the competition anyway. Quite good this little battle for green. The other thing is that Thor can now ride solely for the green jersey. We shall see whether he is really interested. I hope so. There an increasing number of sprinters who are losing ground fast. If the guys in sixth place or lower do not win a fair few points, then they will leave all possibilities for green in the thighs of four guys. Still could be loads of fun, especially since we have two sprinters who can do really well in hills, and a couple who can't, including Cav and Rojas.

The white jersey is still Gesink, but everything I read says he is in bad shape, not feeling well, and not at all confident of doing well in the Tour. Could just be disinformation or bad gossip, we shall see. He seemed perfectly sound today, at least at the end. His team will feel better as well now they have won a stage. I will try to find out something inside about Gesink, he does look good.

I noticed on the climb that in the second row, I saw EBH a few times. I wonder how he sees all this, and what Sky wants to do. EBH and Thomas have excellent possibilities, but perhaps not this year. We can also see that Flecha is no slouch, and was given some space to make a move. Too bad the guy ran him over. Anyway, I think I have become, during this Tour, especially after the loss of Wiggins, a Sky supporter. Their strategy must have an element of tragedy, improvisation and creativity to it now. This should be fun. Although my enthusiasm is dimmed by knowing what happened to Flecha. I figure he could have won that stage.

The full results for the stage are that same kind of result we had the other day. It looks like one group “lost” time, and of course technically they did. I must watch the finish, but I bet it is just a matter of when the commissars say there is “a gap” between a bunch of straggling in riders, up quite a hill. It can even be one is working hard, but a bit casual, following a wheel, but without noticing that the wheel one is following is not quite following the previous one, that “a gap” has opened up. Suddenly you loose a few seconds.

So the jerseys are changing, and the spectacle (sometimes tragic) continues. But so far it is only by elimination that we get results. No one has attacked. Gesink and Contador still riding, but both with unknown levels of distress due to their crashes. Contador fell today again, apparently on the same knee he injured earlier. Gesink and Alberto were present in the right group today, but they could have problems, as could anyone really. Crash, out of the Tour. I think I shall now keep watching Hoogerland, I am impressed with him. Wearing the spots today, what a day. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJarentZE2g&feature=player_embedded#at=17

I won't be writing tomorrow, I take a rest too. So can't tell you who I think will win the stage on Tuesday. I was right about a breakaway today, was I not? Tuesday is a slight downhill finish, perfect for dramatics from a mass sprint. Thing is, they put one big hill and one little hill, not to far from the finish. Maybe the two or three sprinters who can climb would contest it. Or a break. I have no idea who will win, but I will tell you if I got it right on Tuesday night. Today, who did I settle on? Geraint Thomas. I was wrong, but I had a great story worked out. In fact, it was Flecha that enacted the first part of the fantasy. Thomas finished just behind Gesink and just in front of Basso and Kloden. In my opinion, he will soon be in the same kind of place in the final GC. Maybe not this year. I really am keen to find out if he can climb. I even have a wee fantasy that sometime soon, the first Brit to win the Tour would be Welsh! Cool.

Absolutely trivial and meaningless video about room-mates and hotels in the Tour. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2569

A friend asked what I meant by “heavy roads”. I am not sure I am using the word correctly, but for me it means up and down all day, not much time where you can just ride along on the flat for a bit. It also means, for me, that the surface of the road is not so perfect, that it is rough, paved badly maybe, the edges ill-defined, there are potholes or obstacles. Basically you have to use one gear less to ride the same speed, it is just incessant slightly harder work. Not like climbing a big mountain which is hard work for a bit, then not. That’s what I mean. Today was on heavy roads, and I think Monday as well. But on the 17th, the roads from Limoux to Montpellier will not be that heavy as the roads in the sticks, up and down hills all day.

So have a nice rest day. I will. Both rest days are on Market Day here. I can go in to the Market a bit relaxed, not feeling under pressure to write. A wee holiday, I can go for a little ride in the afternoon if I want. Flat roads, if really hot, up a hill, if not. That is a poem. Anyway I am invited to a pool birthday party, in the early evening. So I am glad I don't have to write anything tomorrow.

The Young Lads duke it out, Thor climbs calmly

2011-07-09T23:03:00.001+02:00

Stage 8
9 July 2011

This is the first stage in what we call “medium mountains”. What have we learned about the Tour?

Still keeps me interested, usually something happening, weather, crashes, some good racing with the sprints and the hill finishes. Enough uncertainty that it is still not obvious who is going to fill out the top ten and win the jerseys. Plenty of Tour Tragedies, which I can only like if I distance myself from them. Boonen, Wiggins, Brajkovic, Horner, Kiriyenka, Christophe Kern, Remi Pauriol and others, no longer on the Tour. Strategic choices of the excellent or not so categories. Some new names coming to the fore. Feats of fortitude and desire.

It must be said that other than elimination of three top ten contenders, even podium contenders, it is still not clear what is going to happen on a hill when Schleck cannot follow Contador. Or when Evans might drop one of them. If you look a little at the very end today, they were doing dress rehearsals, but nothing happened. Substitute other names of attackers. We haven't a clue who is going to be strongest over the three weeks. But it must be said that in the Tour we NEVER know for sure after eight days, especially if there is not an ITT during the flattish bit before we get to the real mountains.

Thor has been a superb wearer of the yellow jersey. Basically this big sprinter (1.83m and 83 kilos, about as tall as me and 14 kilos heavier), can now climb some pretty hard shortish hills. By keeping up with the guys who are supposed to climb well, he has saved his jersey. For example, he rode mostly on his own today, his team trusted him to stay calmly within spitting distance of Evans. I am totally impressed with Hushovd. After the yellow stint, he has to revert to the World Champion Jersey. Good year, good Tour for Thor, no matter what happens next. Do you think he can keep up with the leading group of GC riders, all the way across the medium mountains to St. Flour? I have driven on a few of those roads, and while the cols are not mighty, they are heavy roads, and lots of BIG rolling hills. Big rolling hills forever.

We now know that there are at least three guys seriously interested in the green jersey. Cav, Rojas and Gilbert seem to be acting as if they care a lot. Others show signs of being keen, but can't quite get enough points to match those three, they don't make it a priority or they are not as good this year. Hushovd is still well in touch. But the others, including Farrar, do not seem to have the application to get the points at any cost. Today, for example, Gilbert worked a bit harder than necessary at the end, to get the points. He seems way serious. We already know Cav is serious. I knew about Rojas, who I thought was a kind of second rate sprinter. He was never mentioned as a possible green jersey, even an outsider, by La France Cyclist, for example. Maybe someone thought of him outside his family and Spain, but I missed it. Rojas is serious.

No more information on the spotted maillot, although I think it is nice that one of the Next Great American Tour hopes can wear it for a day or so. Seems a very nice young man. Anyway, keeping it until Paris is unlikely. Nice he can wear it at the age of 22. I thought he rode all day like very young, trusting, hard working rider of immense talent. A bit inexperienced maybe. I am looking forward to seeing what he does in the mountains. If he finishes in the top ten this year he is a certainty to win the Tour one day. He can time trial brilliantly.

Gesink is back in the young riders jersey, but it has to be said he could not keep up with the front group and lost time on nearly everyone. So I guess even if he has a bad day, Gesink still looks like the (young) man. Quite a few people in my forums think Gesink is overrated. Did he just “get dropped”? Is a minute or so a big deal?

We can see that Sky wants to keep visible, we saw Flecha and Xandia today, being quite serious. Thomas and EBH finished in the first group. I do hope they get through the loss of Bradley and make some cool moves.

So we don't know very much yet, nothing is clear. A lot of nice fit young men have worn the various jerseys and we are glad. So far it seems a pretty good Tour. I often get bored with the sprint stages, but this year I didn't. OK, admittedly I am really looking forward to the real mountains. But to keep me interested they have stages which have a bit of racing, and go through gorgeous countryside. I can still feel a little bit like I still have to make it through some stages which are not going to increase the uncertainty and not going to affect the result. Maybe something untoward will happen. But its not until next Thursday that they hit the Pyrenees. Still we can always hope for uncertainty.

Today's race was good in the end, the last few K that is. I only caught the last 50k, but it seemed a proper road race with loads of interest, for an hour or so. I liked to see Vino having a dig, felt like a proper Tour de France. I liked the young lads battling it out for the stage. Finally, part of a break stays away. Bravo Rui Costa. Another young (24) with a pretty good record so far. I wanted Tejay to win, since I didn't remember much about Rui Costa, except a vague connection with doping (he got off). In the end the Portuguese lad deserved to win. Tejay worked a bit too hard, but showed us that either of them could do this again. No team or rider really wanted to chase hard enough to catch them. Gilbert seems to be doing quite well. He is going for green without a doubt. Still can't figure Thor. He says he rides around Monaco with Gilbert, and Gilbert makes him work hard on the hills. He thanked Gilbert for the help. So I guess if you lived around Monaco you would have seen Thor and Gilbert out training in the hills, now and again. Thor is amazing. Look at the stage results and see where the next “sprinter” is, after Gilbert of course.

One thing I like to do when I am not in a hurry to cook my dinner (unless I get lucky), finish this off and get to bed in time to read a bit, is to look at the stage results in detail, and notice all the small gaps or big gaps. Then I guess why they exist and what they mean. I noticed that EBH lost eleven seconds on the first group. Sometimes when there is a climb and there is a group strung out for twenty or thirty metres, they all get the same time. But then the commissars decide there is a gap between the last rider in one group and the first rider in “a new group”, also strung out for a few metres (before the “third” group). There is supposed to be a gap of one bike length before a ”new group” begins, but often you can't figure out exactly what criteria they use for the 'end' of one group. So if you look down the stage results, you see tiny handful of seconds separating a number of riders. I think, unless I study the video carefully, this small time difference is simply a slightly larger gap between two riders, one that the authorities see as a BIG ENOUGH gap, rather than a small one. In that same way I guess Leipheimer lost 29 seconds. But LL Sanchez and Gesink losing 1.23 meant they were not as strong or determined as the guys in front of them. Meaning? NO idea, but the questions arises as to whether Gesink is in good shape. I noticed Tejay and Cyril Gautier passed the line a couple minutes after the winner, which is normal for a break that gets caught. They might have been chatting or might become lifetime friends because they road 150k together in theTour. And of course Contador was followed everywhere, even over the line, by both of the Schlecks.

Contador seemed to be accelerating a bit mainly to see who would follow, not really to win the stage. Then he stopped. I guess just warming up for …. next THURSDAY. They won't hit the high mountains until the 14th of July. Maybe we will have a French guy who escapes for a mighty victory and slightly behind we have a hot battle. But that really is DAYS away. The hope I have is that either Contador or others attack a lot, even if we have to wait until Thursday. Still, never give up hope that something exceptional and interesting will happen in the medium mountains to come, the hilly bits.

Jalabert and B. Hinault agreed that it was not obvious why BMC were working so hard, for so long, at the front. They both thought it was unwise. Its a long Tour, why use up your energy to do what? Win a stage? Grab yellow for a few days? Waste of energy, the two French cycling personalities said. This story should run for a day or two as a sub-story. I thought they were riding for the stage or for the jersey, both of which were possible. But the Badger and Jalabert ask a good question. If you want to win the jersey, you have to wear it in Paris. Wearing before the high mountains just means your team has to ride in front a lot more. The experts said they should have made Contador get his team out and work. They did not say how exactly, but BMC should definitely NOT ride in front for long distances.

Tomorrow I go out to a picnic in the late morning-early afternoon, which does not give me a lot of time to read the paper and compose thoughts. So maybe tomorrow's blog will be a little thin. I do hope to get home early enough to have a quick nap and then watch the countryside for a couple of hours. Should be absolutely gorgeous, even if the race is just a break of 4 French and 3 other riders, kept at four minutes for a long time. I guess if any stage had the possibility of a break succeeding it could be this one. Why would any big GC guy want to work hard tomorrow, we have not even reached the mountains. So a big break tomorrow with lesser mortals from seven teams, including some of the biggest teams.

I talked about the fat, detailed Race Book, although I called it the Road Book, that everyone who is anyone gets. You can get a glimpse of the Road Book or Race Book on one of Thomas' videos. On the first page, you can see the short route they mark out for non-Tour route followers. The video is entitled “G and Eddy – TDF”. http://www.geraintthomas.com/videos/

Why do they not force the Team Directors to drive with a normal telephonist, call centre type microphone and headphone. One ear. They drive for ages hanging onto their totally archaic hand held microphone, which means they drive a lot with one hand. Narrow roads, team cars passing and stopping, spectators, bikes in front and behind, etc. Bad idea to do it one handed. Can't figure that out. There exist speaker phones, and so forth.

They said it was 14 degrees and it was raining on the top of the highest climb. Hope they get good weather tomorrow, up and down all day.

In fact, it is so likely to be a break that gets away that I won't even bother to predict. No idea. Jeremy Roy maybe (that is a joke). It is lovely to see the peloton floating through that countryside. I doubt if the big fellows want to race yet. I notice the that each forum buddy has picked a different rider for tomorrow. No one knows.

Our picnic is at a nice lake near here, called Lake Salagou. We have never been to this exact spot, although our pals say it is quite good. Water should be warm enough. When we went to the sea, it really was not comfy to swim, quite bracing. If I were 100% Northern English, I would have gone in.

Back tomorrow at the same time, touch wood.

Cav Two, Bradley Zero

2011-07-08T23:14:00.004+02:00

Stage 7
8 July 2011

I am late starting this. I went for a ride today and am a bit tired. None of you serious cyclists will be deeply impressed, but I rode 67k today and climbed over 700 metres. I have not done that, which means a particular circuit I know, for at least two years. I have not been fit enough. But today I thought I might be. I am beginning to sense “being fit enough” (maybe in a month or so), that I can go anywhere and survive the ride. Around here that is.

Championne of France lives two villages up the valley

Chateau at Lunas

Have to admit to feeling sorry for French people in general and Brits/English people in general. At least those who watch the Tour. The French have STILL not won a stage. It could be they are saving it up for the fourteenth. But the fourteenth is up the Tourmalet then Luz Ardiden. For them, I fantasise a huge pack of every French climber who has lost at least fifteen minutes on the yellow jersey taking off and just outlasting the finest climbers when they try to catch them on the last climb. Could be a great scenario, and maybe with a one two three it would make history and we could get back to the real Tour. Gadret, Gautier, Dupont, Charteau, Coppel, Vichot ... It could be one glorious day. Anyway I do feel sorry for them. They put on a show and none of their guys are getting the big daily prize. In case you are not aware, an entire career is guaranteed to any French rider who wins a stage, and more. I will say something about Feillu in a moment. Maybe even a French guy might win who is NOT entirely vanilla French. Yessss.

Before I mention the other thing, Bradley's crash, I would like to say that in some ways, nothing much changed although it might look like it. For example three Brits in the top ten and three Sky guys in top ten for young, today they are almost gone. And Millar soon will be. Boonen left the Tour today. Pauriol (young French lad with possibilities) as well. But overall, even though some of the jerseys changed hands, that was partly due to Wiggins' crash. My wife was actually quite upset about it. I could pretend I wasn't, that it was all part of the game, that things happen, that the Tour is not about 'justice', but I was really disappointed. I have read two of his books. I liked the guy that I met in the books. I like hearing him talk. I like how he tried really hard to do well last year and failed. Then tried another way this year and was looking like he might succeed. Lost even more weight so he could climb better, and demonstrated it a few weeks ago in the Dauphine. But also seems to have lost nothing in his time trialling. He had a lovely team of such talented young lads, mixed with a couple of old geezers. I have been enjoying 'getting to know' Thomas, Swift (my least favourite) and EBH, for example. Bradley was pretty quiet up to now, staying out of trouble. But ready to try something. Damn. We will never know.

I felt a bit sorry for Pauriol too and Boonen, but not the way I did for Bradley. I note that Radio Shack has had some serious bad luck. Their young leader Brajkovic is out of the entire Tour in one of those stupid crashes, collar-bone maybe. Today Leipheimer and Horner lost so many minutes they are nearly out of the GC themselves, Leipheimer anyway. All they can do is win a stage and help Klöden. I still bet they are the 'best team' at the end of the Tour. Bradley was the only Sky guy injured, not like Shack. The rest of the Sky team is still impressive. Tyler Farrar, as a result of that crash, is now probably an outsider in the green jersey race. Although I am sure he will keep trying every sprint.

So results-wise Thomas hung around Bradley so long that he lost over a minute and with it the white jersey. I doubt he will see it again, but would be dead chuffed if he did. The new “young rider” is Gesink, who nearly everyone thought would win it anyway. Thor kept his jersey, but most likely will lose it tomorrow. There is a semi-serious climb at the end, not just an uphill finish, too much for Thor. By taking the points n the intermediate sprint and at the finish, Rojas grabbed the jersey from Gilbert, for a day anyway. So some small changes, but the outlines of the after mountain GC are still unknown. EBH, Bradley and Thomas, all in the top ten yesterday are out of it. Bang. Over.

What I like about the Sky disaster is that they might give us a good substory. Team has big plans. Leader is fit and ready. Suddenly Plan A is shattered. The leader is gone. But there are all these pretty good young lads, and a couple of competent vets. What can they do to make headlines? Nice challenge for their management. No one can doubt they have some fairly good raw material. I still think Thomas and EBH can do interesting stuff on the Tour.

I am fully enjoying those heli shots of houses and landscapes and am going to LOVE them in the mountains. It is such quality coverage. I have seen other coverage by other TV teams in various cycling races. I think the French produce a superbly varied and mostly pretty well edited picture/story. Did you know that in the studio it is Ronan Pensec who actually choosing exactly what camera to put on live? True! How else cold anyone, except the filthy rich, ever see shots like this? And the slo-mos of the sprints help me to actually understand what went on, since I have never actually, and never will actually be in such a sprint. End of tribute to the lads and lasses that bring us the picture. And to French history which brings us the landscape.

THE Intermediate Sprint was totally classic again. Do search out the video and check out both sprints. Soon the action will develop at a more leisurely and sustained pace, in the mountains. We won't need slo-mo to sort it out. Looks like Cav and his team ARE targeting the Green. Hope he gets it. Although I picked Hushovd. We shall see what he does when he loses the yellow jersey.

A word on Feillu. I am utterly certain that if he were not French, he would be relegated or tossed off the Tour. He is a “suddenly” competitive fast sprinter after many years of being pretty good, without being a star. He IS fast. I have been trying to watch him, and realised that he is a very dangerous sprinter. He has no train, just another competitor on his team, Bozic. Often they do NOT work together. If you are a sprinter, when you are in the last few hundred metres, you are mostly meant to go in a straight line toward the finish. You are not meant to suddenly lunge to the left, or drift over and block other riders, or make any really sudden moves. You are not really supposed to cut off someone by suddenly swinging over into their way. Now there is always a bit of physicality, but you are not meant to to do sudden dangerous moves. I maintain that Romain Feillu makes sudden dangerous moves every time he sprints. He is fast though. He is the guy with the VacanSolieil dark blue jersey with bits of yellow on it. Identify him in any of the sprints and then follow him, and you will see what I mean. If I get around to it, I will insert the URLs for the YouTube link. But there have only been six stages you have to check. Less really.

They were way behind schedule today, so I even had an extra long nap and “didn't miss anything”. They were tired, there was a headwind, weather had been togh, they wanted to take it easy, there are hard stages ahead, those were the reasons given.

One thing I like about some riders, Cavendish, Jens Voigt, Voeckler, Millar, Farrar, Voeckler, Gilbert, Thomas is that they give interesting interviews. Almost as if they know that giving interviews, ones that add something to our understanding and appreciation, is part of the spectacle. Some riders think they are sportsmen only, without realising they work for companies advertising products.

Voila. I had a couple more ideas, but I would not mind getting to bed at a decent hour. No time to even tell you about how my fantasy teams are doing. Actually my favourite fantasy team is doing badly. I decided to pick cheap chancy sprinters, only two. They have not done anything, so I am only going to start scoring points in the next few days. Should do well after that though.

Good night.

EBH Takes the Cake

2011-07-07T22:45:00.001+02:00

Stage 6
7 July 2011

A rather long stage today, the longest. Dreary weather, and although the road was frequently wet, not as dangerous as yesterday. Without apologising too much for being repetitive, those of you who are not checking out the incredible architecture and countryside of France are really missing something. I would like to spend more time in front of the box, taking that in, doing little errands, checking things on the computer. However, often, as today, I only caught the last fifty k and missed the intermediate sprint. Must mark the mountain stages on my diary and make sure I devote time to watching on the new TV. As I suspected, with big screen HD, everything is better. I liked the picture setting that made everything brighter, my wife liked it more realistic. Typical of us both. Can't wait for the mountains.

A few things that I'd like to mention before the results. If you look carefully, it was certainly clear today, there are long sections of road which are newly made. The tarmac is so new they sometimes don't have time to paint the lines on it. When the Tour comes to an area, you can almost see the route by finding new road surfaces. They don't mess about, the tour is money, and no one wants crashes due to bad roads in THEIR region. On the last wee climb and toward the end it was obvious today.

The spectators sometimes park their cars on the side of the road, then instead of watching between cars, they watch between their cars and the road. This means that when the riders were taking up the entire road, which they often do if not going really fast, and the spectators didn't know about bikes and races, which they often don't, neither the riders nor the spectators had anywhere to go to avoid each other. Its like the spectators forget, or wilfully don't think that the road is for the riders, there is a race on. A ROAD RACE. They came so close to collisions, so many times. Like the yellow dressed woman the other day, except she knocked over a rider and herself got knocked over. So thoughtless, so stupid. Mind you, the same thing happens to bikes ridden on ordinary streets and roads, but as the Tour passes they should all know there is a race on for a few minutes of their lives. Mind you, considering the millions of people on the road it is always something to explain how they get through with so few deaths and injuries. It is not just luck, there is something more profound.

As for the race, although you don't know it, I did, in the end, pick Edvald Boasson Hagen, EBH. I really thought about it and thought he would actually win. Although I picked him partly because no one else picked him, and I would get big points in our league. I am pleased because I have been a fan of his for a couple of years, he is a shy and modest fellow (in English anyway), clearly an immense talent, and he has been plagued by injuries for two years. This year, for example, he came down with an attack of shingles a week before the Tour. Brilliant lead-out from Geraint Thomas, himself a great talent and WELSH. Earlier Ben Swift buried himself for EBH. EBH was riding in front of Thor, Feillu, Gilbert, Goss (plus the others) and no one gained an centimetre. Notice how when the Rabobank guy took off, it was instantly Geraint on the wheel with EBH behind. In one of his interviews, EBH said when you follow Geraint you can just trust him, he is that good. Note how Geraint looks around, sees who is where, knowing EBH is on his wheel, and drifts off to his right, continuing to ride hard, but subtly blocking other sprinters, then slowing up seconds later. EBH also made a very good move when he chose the right time to leave Geraint's wheel, when he saw the right opening (you can see the space he went into), to begin his sprint. Just enough space and perfectly timed. Master class. Watch that sprint on the videos for sure. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2451

Other riders who struck me during the day, although I have noticed some of them before. Laurent Roux did a nice little futile attack near the end. He almost won the French jersey this year, and if he had, I bet he would ride even better. In any case, he is a young talent in one day races or stages. I was also immensely impressed with Adriano Malori, the Italian TT champion this year. Not many could have ridden in front of a serious peloton at the end of the stage for that long. IN ADDITION to riding in the escape. If he ever gets in another escape with one or two serious rouleurs, we can expect someone to react quickly or he will be gone. We also got a wee thrill with another futile attack by Thomas Voeckler. He does have that fighting spirit, but just is not quite good enough to pull it off. On the other hand, try and try again and you eventually make it. He will , and has. He really is a liable guy when interviewed. Kid next door. Confident, but modest, if that is possible.

Arthur Vichot (FDJ) right up there today. Arthur Vichot? Guess we better watch him. You don't get in the top ten on a finish like that by luck. Can he climb? Apparently. Romain Feillu also seems to be having a good Tour. Still don't like him much.

A very amusing and realistic interview with Chris Horner. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2457
Compare Hinault's predictions with the results. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2432

Someone who runs the Specialised company should take a look at the bikes they are sending to Contador/Saxo. He has been changing them a lot. Its not that he has (Shimano) electronic shifting, as he uses SRAM gear (same one that betrayed Schleck last year). I have heard of several riders mumbling about bikes which shift on their own, but not much in the press. Anyway, Contador seems to be upset quite often with his bikes. I really don't know why, they have mechanics, the bikes should be fine. Puzzle.

I was self-critical too soon, the new intermediate sprint system is giving us two good sprints a day, but not two catches. I just watched the video of Cav in the intermediate one, and HTC just did a classic lead out, perfect. Lovely to watch. I notice Rojas was there and Farrar and Gilbert, so they are still very serious about the green jersey. I love it, but bring on the mountains. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2447

Cadel was the first Australian to ever wear the mountains jersey, and when it got handed over to Johnny Hoogerland (whom we see attacking later, for sure), it was the first time a Dutch guy had it since Gert Jan Theunisse, who was a drugged climber from the eighties.

Might I recommend some quite good informal videos that Geraint Thomas is making. http://www.geraintthomas.com/videos/ Sky has three of the top six young riders at present. I wonder if they can keep them all for a few years. Overall doing well and quite visible in this Tour.

Last “feature” bit from a story in L'Equipe today. About the companies and budgets. Seems it is easy enough to identify the “big teams”. The dividing line seems to be 10,000,000 euros a year as a budget. The average budget is apparently 9.5 million euros. Over ten million are Saxo, Leopard, Garmin, Astana, Radioshack, Sky, BMC, Quick Step, HTC and Katusha. Katusha (named after a missile, by Putin) leads with 15 million, but I think this includes a junior team too. Saxo, Astana, on 12. Astana seems the odd one out, not really worth all that money. Following Shack at 11, we have Garmin, Quick Step and HTC on ten. The rest have smaller budgets. I am not saying money buys a good team, just pointing out that a team like Euskatel and Europcar on 6.5 and AG2R on 7.5 are simply never going to have the best riders. Money talks. By the way, I have no idea if these data are correct, but they are the only ones I have. Euskatel (94), Rabobank (96) FDJ (97) and Cofidis (97) have been in the peloton longest, although AG2R was a co-sponsor in 1997. Lampre has been with us for along time too. It does seem like the French teams have the most stability, since Europcar has been around for years with different names. Then again so has Movistar. In fact with all the chopping and changing, it is hard to tell when 'a team' stops being a team, since it can be the same team, same admin, same riders, but the sponsor's name changes. They advertise simply because it is cheap and effective. It is just business, although it helps to have a cycling fanatic at the top of a company. Quick Step, for example, said that when they began advertising in 1999, 0.55% of the population recognised their name. In 2011, they say 51%. Effective.

In case you missed Mont St Michel, this video might help. Turn down the sound though. Second most visited place in France, apparently, after the Tour Eiffel. I have been there. If you know you are a tourist, and realise that tourists/pilgrims have been coming for several hundred years, it is an amazing place.
http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2469

Feillu doing well, but wandering about all over the place looking for an opening.

As for the stage tomorrow, I will just bask in my accuracy for a day. Nearly everyone on my forum has picked Cav. Probably right. The stage finish is completely and utterly flat. Before that, there is nothing whatsoever resembling a hill. So I pick Ben Swift. Unless I change my mind after I send this off. Maybe Tyler Farrar would be a better pick for second or third.

Soon, the mountains.

Cav finally does it

2011-07-06T23:21:00.000+02:00

Stage 5
6 July 2011

L'Equipe is back and the beach was great. Good place to read the paper, on the beach, in the shade, looking out at the Med. Forgot my pen though, and could not circle good stuff so I could tell you.

Seems to be a day for crashes. Very much a part of any cycle race, and very much a part of the first week in the TDF. I still don't like them at all. I don't like riders being eliminated by a crash, especially if no fault of their own. Anyone find an interview with that yellow dressed woman who took out riders? So who is out of the Tour? Kern out with tendonitis. Brajkovic out. Would have liked to see what he could do. Boonen probably out. Gesink we will see tomorrow. We have to accept this sort of thing, which I do, but not gracefully. The guy who designs the route (with help, of course) was interviewed. He gave an answer that makes some sense. Around nearly every town there are endless roundabouts, speed bumps and street furniture. They are designed to slow down the fast moving motor vehicles that dominate our urban environment. These traffic projects are dangerous for racing cyclists. They do slow cars, but they are dangerous for fast bikes in large packs. The route often gets designed so it goes on small roads, without the street furniture, avoiding that kind of anti fast car danger. But of course it is still dangerous, as the roads are smaller and during the first week for sure, riders are keen, they have not lost a lot of time, there are many who have high hopes. What can you do, except maybe make all the riders slow down whenever … whenever what? The problem is cars, not bikes. But the solutions for cars are not always good for racing bikes.

The main interest in these first stages has “the sprint”, including the intermediate sprint and the hill sprints. If the escape has only three or four riders, then there will still be points available at the intermediate sprint and the break will not be caught. My prediction that there would be two attempts to catch the break, both before the intermediate sprint and before the final one turn out to be dubious, if not downright wrong. The sprinters' teams seem to have come to an agreement to catch the escape only once.

http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2411
Take a look at that finish. So it is slowly becoming clear who is going for the green jersey, but we should still wait a bit. There are six guys who are quite obviously in the running for the green jersey (check results now). Cav picked up the points he needed today and is back where he belongs. Gilbert is still trying, figuring he could have won this stage. No idea on earth how Cav beat him, as it was slightly uphill and Cav is supposed to be only good on the flat. I would say it is one of his most impressive victories in his entire career. Beating all the others on THAT stage. Never would have guessed it. Rojas not only has big ideas, but he seems to have the legs to back it up. I suppose we all have to admit he is not a second rate sprinter, but a first class one. Hushovd is still thereabouts, although his placing today does not really match the Mur the other day when he finished with about ten climbers. THAT was a genuinely remarkable ride. Geraint Thomas still has no idea if he is a sprinter or a climber or a rouleur (or all of them). We shall see what happens in the mountains. In any case, he is a very fine cyclist whose name will be even more well known after these first few days. Maybe the French will call him Welsh one day instead of English (Millar is also called English). Geraint needs to win a stage to jump up a level in fame. The fact that Cadel is still there, and he has mountains yet to come, means he is in fine fettle, very fine indeed. With the points he gets in the mountains, he might, oddly enough and quite surprisingly, do very well in the points competition by the time we get to Paris. Farrar was tired today, apparently, just not feeling that good. So he and his team gave the sprint a miss, although Garmin was very happy for Thor. At present those I mentioned are the obvious contenders. But it must be said that a really good day for Greipel (currently lead out man for Gilbert), Bozic (same team as Feillu but not working for him), Feillu (he got boxed in on the left hand side of the road, silly mistake), will bring them into contention. Today Cav won a stage, points on the other sprint and suddenly he is in the top five. I still do not think that those last three are class sprinters. I am thinking now that most of the other sprinters are out of the competition completely, maybe they will get lucky and win a stage. BUT the climbers have yet to move into action and they could upset the best laid plans of the sprinters. Maybe. Quite good this green jersey competition, so far.
I noticed that Lampre, the team of Pettachi (pink and blue), were riding in front at the end of the stage. I guess they were doing it for Allessandro, who has shown us nothing at all this year. Although perhaps I missed the point and they were riding for Cunego who finished 24th. I do not understand how a guy who won green last year cannot even place in the sprints this year. Today Pettachi was 114th. HTC was riding, Saxo and BMC as well. Garmin and Sky also, for their respective riders, to keep them up in the GC. Nice to have George Hincapie being your companion, as Cadel does. Still very pleased Big George is going to be the guy who rode the most Tours in human history. I like George, even if it turns out he took drugs.
Rather liked Thomas Voeckler making an escape about 30k from the end, with Jeremy Roy. Just rode up the verge of a narrow road and surprised them all. They didn't make it in the end. But the escape did allow a bit of cocorico (the sound a French rooster makes, NOT, for example, cock-a-doodle-doo or chicchirichi, Italian ) from the French commentators.
A little kid who was champion of France as a “benjamin” said (interviewed on the after Tour show) that Contador lost the sprint to Evans because his hands were in wrong position. The kid said you have to have your hands on the drops when you sprint, not on the brake hoods. The kid was right.

Take a look at the video of the intermediate sprint, to see why both Boonen and Rojas were relegated, no points. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2408 This led to the others getting more points. You can see Boonen and Rojas moving over and cutting off Cav. When you start a sprint, all other things being equal, you are meant to stay in a roughly straight line, You are not really meant to 'close the door' on a sprinter coming up to you and trying to pass. You are meant to sprint cleanly and clearly. The two mentioned did a fair bit of moving off a straight line, left then right. But I don't know why there is suddenly all this official interference in the sprint. They might have warned the sprinters, as they all seem a bit annoyed and puzzled.

Although there will be a break tomorrow, I expect it will be caught. The finish is uphill slightly, from 50 metres at 3k to 140 metres at one k. Then it is flat till the end. Thor, who is nearly a climber? Gilbert who goes up wee hills very fast? Cav again? Hard to bet against him when he is on form and warmed up. But Farrar should be rested, the stage the following day is utterly flat at the end, so …. The truth is I don't have a clue. I will go for Gilbert, so as not to go for Cav.

Bye.

Stage 4

2011-07-05T22:33:00.003+02:00

Stage 4
5 July 2011

Still no l'Equipe today, strike in Paris. So I had more time to ride the bike, 68k up the valley and climbing a bit to St. Vincent and then back. Nice valley.

Right by the side of the road, didn't even get off the bike to take the above.

This is more or less the start of the ride, I rode in the direction of the photo and back.

The judges, or commissars, took away the points of Thor and Cav for the intermediate sprint. You can see the replay of the intermediate Sprint from yesterday. In my mind, although I missed the live version, there is utterly no reason to really mess with them, neither of them even complained. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2353 Just a bit of argy bargy, Thor moved over on Cav, Cav moved him back. Very normal. Someone is getting overexcited about this and they should calm down. If Thor and Cav were to get thrown out of the race for a bit of this and that, it would be outrageous. No idea what is going on with the commissars. No way they should be punished.

Other thing to mention is that sometimes it is hard to give this little job the attention it deserves. Not getting l'Equipe for the second day in a row annoys me. But having a good ride instead of reading the paper is great. Tomorrow we are going to the beach. Life does go on, even when the Tour is on. I am sure I will get more involved in the mountain stages, although the green jersey DOES interest me this year.

Murky racing day today, but no rain toward the end. They looked pretty much like wet puppies when I tuned in. Good to see Kadri in the break. He is one French guy I am watching. However the break will be caught, and Gilbert will win. [wrong about Gilbert] No strong feelings about any other guy in the break of the day. In the end, very nearly the end, they did get caught, no surprise. So really the race is all going to happen in the last 5k. But we knew that too.

Those hills at the end, from a distance, are the kind of hills that break your heart on a hot day while cycle-touring. Seemed a problem for Farrar and Cav too, both dropped before the end. Evans leading out Gilbert. First real test to see who has good legs and power to spare, even if it does not matter in the end. This end is really good. All poised and waiting. Contador attacks. Gaps appear. Andy can't follow. Evans. Gilbert so clever. Alberto. Evans. Very tired bunnies. That top ten after this little climb is the first one that gives us a hint of what might happen. No Wiggins. No Schlecks. And Evans the best. No big gaps of importance, just some indications, something to contemplate. Three Brits (called English on the French commentary) in the top ten. Thor keeps the jersey. Contador has more to say, not dead yet. Gilbert is not invincible. Evans in the polka dot jersey, misses the yellow by a second. Thor keeps it. Thomas was in the picture as well, that guy is going to do something quite good soon. They were all in the front, only the fourth stage. Just like a mountain finish. Except Andy, who has shown us nothing whatever so far. Frank did well.

Sadly, we can't conclude very much, even thought the last five k were quite dramatic. Still one writes blogs to speculate a bit. Clearly Evans is in top form. Not worried about saving anything for later. For his trouble he got the stage win. Although Contador lost by a couple tyre widths, I think he wanted to show people he was still OK. He is. The Gilbert fans are going to have to figure out what happened, but he may still keep an interest in green. Don't know why Van Den Broek attacked Gilbert, they are on the same team. I think this deranged Gilbert. He said that he was trying as hard as he could and he just was not strong enough. Vino is serious and fit. The old guy was third!

The gaps are very small in the top ten. So in spite of all the action, nothing much has happened in the GC, except Sanchez, Hesjedal, Contador have lost a pocketful of seconds. In fact, anyone who draws any very serious conclusions from this stage result or the four stages so far is kidding themselves. Of course Wiggins (known as a diesel without acceleration) and Schleck (who only really does well on long climbs where he can settle in) lost a few seconds. Totally normal. Contador is known for acceleration and he wanted to say hello again. Evans is looking very good, but the Tour is long. And we (re)discovered that those who cannot be beaten (Gilbert) can be beaten. And that old guys can still do well (Vino). Looking back over the top men, it also seems to be pretty clear that Thor is one of the very best up a hill, even if he is also a sprinter. Quite surprisingly, as I have seen him accelerate well, Gesink seems to have missed the final selection. If I were a serious columnist, I would make something of this, but I am not, so I think it means little.

Green jersey, can we say anything. Still not totally obvious who is keen. Seems that Rojas is beginning to make a serious attempt to keep the jersey. Could be interesting as I have no idea if he is really good. Always thought of him as a second rank sprinter. Maybe not. Someone said that Gilbert, for example, will decide what his goals are after the sixth stage. Evans is going to pick up points in the mountains as well, but I think he is totally fixed on yellow. Hushovd is one good stage away from green, so he still could have his eye on the prize. Tyler Farrar has had a good start too. Those guys seem serious. If those below them do not win a few more points in the next three stages, then we will know they are not serious about the jersey. For example, if Cav does not pull his finger out and get his train together by the eighth stage or so, then the opportunities to win sprints or even intermediate sprints, start to disappear. Same goes for Greipel and Galimzyanov, neither showing much. McEwen clearly is not interested in anything but maybe sneaking a stage. Pettachi is so far behind he might just go for one stage. Allessandro has 4 points, the top five all have over 60. I predict, fairly safely, that Pettachi is not going to have any chance whatever to win the green jersey. None. Perhaps, perhaps, this year the winner might be a climber. As I say, much more speculation is a bit premature.

Having said all that, for one reason or another, riders like Gesink, Hesjedal, A Schleck, Thomas, EBH, Brajkovic, Roche all were unable or unwilling to keep up with acceleration of Contador and Evans. French guys like Chavanel, Moncoutié and Voeckler also didn't keep up. But we are talking small time gaps here. Very small mostly. Gesink and Schleck or even EBH and Brajkovic are still ready to do anything.

I am slowly getting into this Tour. But it IS slow, hard to devote enough time to it. Tonight's “something better to do” was a meeting of the Collectif Non-Violent in town. Last meeting of the summer, thought I should turn up. I am the only immigrant who goes. Not very many politically active immigrants in this town. The group is a very decent bunch of people who do get things organised quite well for group in this area.

Tomorrow I have no idea who is going to win. Velo magazine thinks it will be Cancellara. My forum that guesses, thinks it will be any one of a number of sprinters, Farrar, Brutt, Rojas, and Cav getting the most votes. I see that the last five k, after a slightly bumpy parcours without any BIG hills, slightly uphill from 4 to 3k then a little uphill the last k, more like a faux plat maybe. That is not obviously for Cav. So maybe HTC will ride for Goss. Or Hushovd can do it too. For that matter Gilbert is not going to give up. I could go for Goss. Like I did today and got nothing at all. Goss was not even involved in the sprint at all, he rolled in four minutes down, at the back of the peloton. In fact, although Tony Martin and Tejay Van Garderen were in the group that lost 8 seconds, the rest of the HTC team ambled up the hill without even trying, losing at least 2 minutes each. HTC not present today. Mind you, I am glad that Tejay is doing well, and Tony Martin is keeping in touch.

Why do I even bother with these predictions? What do I know anyway? Maybe Cancellara, no one else has picked him, so he might just do the job. Yes, I will stick with Cancellara, I get most points if he does well and no one else has picked him. I can imagine him doing it.

Supposed to be totally scenic tomorrow. And my 'better thing to do', you guessed it, go to the beach in the morning, hopefully after buying l'Equipe. But like I said, I am just warming up, they are just warming up. While they have been entertaining each day, nothing that profound has happened, except Contador, Hesjedal, Sanchez all have to attack. There are three Sky and three HTC in the top 16, and FOUR Radio Shacks in the top 16, they have not yet made any big mistakes. I bet Lance is having a good laugh at Contador, and pleased his old fellows are doing well. Like I said, I really should not be speculating it is so early in the game.

Roll on tomorrow. We might have the TV by tomorrow.

Stage three

2011-07-04T23:03:00.001+02:00

Stage 3, “Fourth of July” 201l

National Day for my Mother Country. Happy Birthday. Tyler won “for his country”, maybe.

Major bummer today. There was a strike with the distributors and there is NO l'Equipe today. It is just not a normal day. There might even be some rain here, so no ride.

Went to the market this morning, as all Monday mornings. Had a chat with a guy who is a “real cyclist”. He rides into the market, about 18k return trip, although I think his wife drives in, as they can't carry serious shopping on a bike, like a tray of peaches. They are NOT young. He is active in the campaign to get a cycle path in the area. He takes cycling holidays with others. A real cyclist. He hates the Tour. Just another example of “competition”, which he deplores. The Tour is totally penetrated by drugs, commercialism, consumerism and competition. He has no time for it. Watches almost no sports on TV. Yet there is no denying the guy will be a cyclist even if the Tour disappears tomorrow. Do does sports often. I admit I mostly listened, partly since I totally agree with him. And yet I love the Tour, every year. Even though I know all the stuff he knows and even say so publicly. We never got around to the next bit of the conversation, the part where I admit I mostly agree with him, AND also love both cycling and the Tour. I look forward to that conversation.

I also had a chat with my pal Joseph. We cycled together in the club a lot for six years or so. Both of us were always in Group Three, the older, slower riders. He was much stronger on the flat and the descents, but on the climbs I could almost keep up with him. He does not ride much now (76) as he had a heart problem and operations. He was probably the best competitive cyclist in the club, winning seven races in seven days across the South of France in his prime. Almost rode for Tom Simpson's Peugeot team. He has gone off the Tour too. He is not so keen to watch the finish of the flat stages. He was gardening outside when Gilbert won stage one. Joseph thinks there is too much money, drugs, razzle dazzle in the Tour today. He doesn't trust what he sees as being the real competitive cycling, which he knew very well. Too many deals, too much influence of sponsors. Every flat stage has a break, a long ride in flattish countryside, then they catch the break and have a sprint. The scenario for today? I think he will get more excited once we hit the mountains.

Maybe I can get a short ride in today if I take an early nap. I only need to watch the last hour. Didn't manage the ride in the end.

Can you imagine if, at the foot of “The Mur” tomorrow, not only Gilbert, but Contador and Sanchez launch an attack. Everyone tries to follow, including Thor, Goss, Tyler and whatnot. Now how about that for a little dream race lasting 3-4 kilometres. And then we should have a bit of argy bargy strategy in the ten k leading up to the final climb. Yes, that's what I would like for my Tour tomorrow, please. If Contador or Sanchez attacked, do we think anyone could follow? I'd like to see. Alberto won't. By now he has figured out that the lost time is not a disaster. He just has to attack near the top of all the big mountains.

It's kind of nice to see old customs respected, Anthony Charteau rode ahead a little so he could stop in his hometown to say hello to the family. He rejoined the peloton with no problem, as they came past. Almost got a shot of another traditional custom, pissing from the side of the bike as you keep riding. But they cut away.

Excellent little graphic for watching what is happening and having an up to date map to hand, so you don't need an atlas. And cool data for the geeky ones. Got this from my justcycling forum. http://data.srmlive.de/TDF/

HTC. Martin to last kilometre, Eisel, then Goss, then Renshaw. Not a bad train really. But they blew it.

At 9k the catch was made. Now riding at 70kph, I can't go that fast even downhill. No sight of HTC yet, 6k. 5K, HTC in front. Tony Martin left in front too soon. Marcato attacks. No one worried. Cav lost the wheel of HTC. Got it back. Garmin and Tyler. Fourth of July! His first Tour victory ever. Rojas and Feillu, nice one for the less famous guys. Thor, yellow jersey, World Champion, Tyler's own leadout man. Goodness where were the BIG guys? Cav fourth. No doubt we should study the tapes.

Today the event that distracts me from this writing is the first monthly meeting of the local Attac group (Google it), of which I was once president. I faded out for a bit, but only because they have meetings on Market Day, when I hang with friends. The meetings were also terrible, but now seem to be under improvement. Tonight they are starting the bigger monthly meetings after a two year break, and I want to check things out. So you get far less analysis time than you might. However, there is not much to say. HTC made a mess of things, Garmin did not. And a couple of lone sprinters did clever things and beat the rest of the big names. I still like Thor in yellow, leading out Tyler I expect Tyler will lead out Thor tomorrow. As he would love to beat gilbert, although I really have no reason to think ANYONE can beat him.

Back from the meeting, had dinner, ready to polish this off. The last few minutes of every finish are always on You Tube, so you can watch. Looks like in another Tour either or both of Cav and Thor might have been relegated or worse. Sprinting is a bit of a contact sport, so I reckon its no big deal. The GC is the same, the 'Mountains” jersey is the same, the young jersey is the same. The only real interest at the moment is the points jersey, the green one. Not a whole lot to say about it yet, we have to wait for a couple more days before making speculations. It does appear that a number of riders are keen to contest the sprints and the intermediate sprints. Until we see who is really going well, who keeps trying, we won't know for sure. Farrar has GOT to be going for the jersey. Hushovd maybe. Gilbert, maybe. Cav, probably. Gil seems to showing some enthusiasm. That is already enough for a good contest. We should just wait and see. One day when I don't have something better to do, I will take a You Tube clip of sprint finish and give a detailed commentary. Some of you will have noticed everything I say, but some will see something new. But not tonight. You can watch the finish again on the videos http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/2282

I originally picked Gilbert for tomorrow. Besides it being his birthday, he seems to ride up that kind of hill faster than anyone by along shot. However, due to heavy betting on Gilbert in my forum, I am going to try and figure who else might either win or finish second. AND be picked by no one else. So far I think Hushovd is way oversubscribed too. So maybe Thomas, EBH (everyone figures he is unwell, but I don't know), or Goss. Maybe Cav will lead him out. On the other hand, I had a quick vision of Contador sprinting like blazes up the hill, neck and neck with Gilbert taking thirty seconds on the rest, and putting Gilbert in yellow again. But it won't happen. I changed to Goss.

Are you getting warmed up? I feel like I am getting into the Tour, although having no l'Equipe was a bit annoying.

Until tomorrow.

Stage 2 - 3 July 2011 TTT

2011-07-03T21:44:00.000+02:00

Stage 2 – 3 July 2011

I am trying to write some of this before the stage, so if the tenses get confused, read deeply.

Let me take a moment to help you understand the weird finish yesterday. It might not concern you much, so skip this paragraph (actually two paras in the end). If you look at the stage finish results for stage one (now, http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stage-1/results) and notice that the first 31 placings seemed quite normal and then suddenly someone fished at 1'20”. You might think, ah, there was a gap between riders due to the crashes. OK. Then suddenly the 37th rider finished only six seconds back, even though he crossed the line at the same moment as the 36th and 38th rider. And throughout the rest of the results there is an alternation of six seconds gap and 1.20 (or more). Keep looking through and it will be obvious that on numerous occasions, a rider got a time only six seconds after the winner, even though they finished WAY behind riders who lost more than a minute. In fact, if you look at Matthew Goss (the extreme case), finishing 183rd, the guy in front of him lost 4.56, the guy behind him lost 5.33, and he only lost six seconds. How can this be?

The rules are fairly clear. The second big crash, the one that happened 2k+ from the finish involved all the people who got a six second gap in the final GC. You can see exactly how many there were. If you have a crash in the last 3k (or a mechanical problem or a puncture), everyone in the group who crashed (or those with bike problems) gets the same time as the first guy who finishes, from that group (not Gilbert's time since he sprinted away from the group at the end). The judges have a device which reads the transponders of every rider at 3k, so they know exactly who was in the group at that moment. But the “classification” of each rider, the order they crossed the finish line, is strictly when they cross the line. Hence the 183rd guy to cross the line really did cross very late, but only lost 6 seconds because he was with the first group at 3k.

This rule was constructed to prevent a Tour being lost solely by the speed, jostling and pushing and danger that comes with every sprint finish. This rule means that in the last 3k, very dangerous, the NON-sprinters can hang back a bit and let the sprinters and their lead-out men duke it out. The guys who hang back don't lose time, and the sprinters have space to do their stuff. Sprinters are happy and GC riders are happy. So for some reason I don't know yet, Goss and Gesink took ever such a long time to get over the line. Although you have to search long and hard for their names on the finish list, they were clearly in that first group, the group that got entirely missed the first crash (because they were in the front), nine k from the finish. Alberto took some time to extricate himself from that first massive pileup, but not THAT much. Check out the videos which must be appearing by now. When there is a big crash, especially one spread out across the road (it had ditches on both sides too), some riders have to check or be checked if they are injured. Others have to wait for a new wheel or even a new bike. Others have to wait for an actual way to be clear for them to walk with their bike on a clear road to get back on. Of course some, the ones in the front, are not injured, have a bike that works, and are off. Over the distance between the first crash and the finish, riders caught up with others and finally, it appears from the times, that a rather large group got in 1.20 after the winner. They got their actual time of arrival since their crash was outside the protected zone. Gesink and Goss knew the rules, as did many others who were in the second crash, and many of them just took their time getting to the finish. Why rush up the steepish hill, they had nothing to gain? Had Contador, the 2 Sanchez and Hesjedal, for example, been WELL in front at the nine k mark, like the other 80 odd riders were, they would have avoided the crash and only lost six seconds, like the Schlecks, Wiggins and Evans. Bad riding, bad luck.

Note that all this rule does NOT apply on Wednesday for the finish on the Mur de Bretagne, which is treated like a mountaintop finish, not a flat, sprinty one. Games are complicated, sometimes you have to dig to figure out why the rules are there. Sometimes they are just stupid. Enough of that.

If I keep my promise I only have a few hundred words left for the TTT. Usually there is a bit less “event” in the TTT than in a proper road stage. The results will shake up the GC briefly. I predicted Contador would lose more time, as he has a poor TT team. My pick, Sky, almost won. Wiggins is even better placed. And Thomas is knocking on the door of Yellow, wearing white. But Garmin won, and Thor wears yellow. Fantastic. I like when the yellow is worn by many different riders during the Tour. I like immensely when rider who “deserves it” actually wears yellow for a day or more. Remember Sean Yates and Jens Voigt.

Basically the real joy is WATCHING a TTT, not writing about in a daily blog. Poetic writing maybe. For me anyway, there is an aesthetic pleasure watching the different teams try to ride a perfect TT. It actually is very hard, all things considered, to ride a bike at 60kph or whatever they do, about five centimetres from another back wheel. For a LONG time. Around corners. After the messy stuff on the first stage, we can settle down to watch how the guys ride in a “pure team” way. Watching the TTT is relaxing.

The unusual nature of the first two days' stages does mean we should have some more attacking later in the Tour as the big fellows try to make up the gaps. A few riders who might want to attack for the stage win are also more likely to be let loose, since they have lost so many minutes already, no one cares what they do. So any of the last 40 riders, the ones who have ALREADY lost more than three minutes, will be likely to make a break.

We get another look at how “peloton” will deal with the intermediate sprints. Should be a good strategic story as the Tour unfolds.

Loved seeing Thor Hushovd in the mountains jersey! Very pleased for Thor. No idea why, but I reckon he is clean, nice and Norwegian. [later] And now yellow. The beauty of the Tour.

Getting annoyed with the stupid spectators booing Saxo and Alberto. Not cool. They should be booing the UCI and the Spanish Federation.

Big turns by Fabian. Nice to see. Sky looked lovely too and you could tell that BMC had done plenty of practice. Frank S. not taking any relays at all. Andy not taking relays either, at the end. Saving them? They can't time trial? Feeling poorly? Sorry, my attempt at gossip.

Wiggins says he weighs 13 kilos less than Beijing, he now weighs 69k. Usually that draws a breath from serious racing guys. He clearly wants to climb better. Jalabert immediately was worried about reserves for three weeks.

Saxo, good morale, very good result. They are not a strong team, but managed to be quite respectable. On the other hand Alberto is now behind Schleck by a very significant time. When Andy lost 42 seconds to Contador on the prologue last year, he never got the time back, and lost the whole Tour by 39 seconds. Contador has lost way more. I can only think this will make the Tour more interesting. Contador simply has to get the time back. So he has to attack, both Schlecks, Evans, Wiggins, Basso and any other chancer. If he attacks, some won't be able to follow, some will. That is what makes a good race. Mind you, there still might be plenty of “events”. We have many stages to come.

Evans quite impressive. Long relays. Big winner. Took more time on all rivals.

Gilbert will never get the yellow jersey back at the end of the stage up Mur. Must have been a mental treat for him to think he had all three jerseys today. Can't have happened more than a few times, must check. He is probably a cycling legend already. Should he win the fourth stage there will be no question. “Remember the 2011 Tour when Gilbert just rode away from every rider in the Tour, twice!” Maybe he might even carry on to the end of the Tour and try to get the green jersey. THAT would be fun.

Jean-Paul Olivier is a very knowledgable commentator. He is part of the French TV team. They showed clips of him answering questions on a quiz show, like “who was fourth in the second stage of the Tour 1970”, for example. He described the six guys in the break, remembered who got dropped and who won the four man sprint. And several other questions like that. He was good!

I do apologise for not saying much about the race, but the TTT is not really a race, more like an aesthetic exercise. It is over. The results will not distort the overall race very much, which is good. Interesting gaps emerging quickly, but it is still very early, no mountains. I cannot imagine anything but good coming from this for the quality of our Tour. Uncertainty is always the key to a good race. I think so far, the route planners did a good job.

So tomorrow is almost certain to be a sprint. Maybe one or two of the usual sprinters teams will be too tired to chase. I doubt it, but it could be a victory for a breakaway. Plenty of riders want a spot of glory before the serious stuff starts. On the other hand, the total odds have been on Cav for this stage since it was revealed. I pick him too. But I would like to see Thor win in the yellow jersey. Such a cool ending. So tune in for the last 45 minutes maybe or half an hour.

That's it for tonight. I am quite tired from staying up to finish after the Country Fete. I didn't even get out for a ride today, just felt tired. Voila.

Later.

Stage One

2011-07-02T23:49:00.009+02:00

Stage 1 – 2 July 2011

Plenty of people hanging out in the villages. A break of course … new jerseys, the green stripe for Sky instead of blue, the light white summer jersey for Garmin, UK champ helmet for Wiggins, some crashes, but not too bad at the beginning, some sumptuous housing, loads of “field art”, the commentators' voices in the background, closed roads leading to the parcours, with cars parked all along them, getting used to it all again, slowly, during the first stage. The usual run of classy castles, big houses, with the gentle voice of Jean-Paul telling us about them. Then we got to the highest point in the Vendee, and at the highest point of the highest point (church steeple of course) were the usual collection of people waving flags. Being on a tower (or a digger with the bucket up high) or doing something outside a stately home is always a way of getting on TV. In fact, the travel through the countryside of France gives a huge number of people, should they be be a bit creative, the chance to be on TV. The Tour, while “sports” for sure, is also a “spectacle”. The French countryside really is lovely, full of architecture from a number of centuries. No wonder more people spend holiday time here than any country on earth.

A slow first stage, no one really busting a gut to bring back the break before the intermediate sprint, Team Time Trial tomorrow, saving strength. So what can we say about the intermediate sprint? The new one, the big one, the only one except the final sprint. Not much really. It appears that no team was the least bit interested in chasing down the break, until the end. I guess it was a special stage, the first, and we will have to see how the new rules affect behaviour and strategy as things go on. It was certainly the case that teams took the intermediate sprint seriously, even if it was only for fourth place. No idea what happened to Cav and his team. They were there, doing the leadout, and suddenly they weren't. Must watch the replay. One place to watch replays of various bits is by checking them out on the video section of http://www.cyclingfans.com/cycling_videos

Omega acting as if they are yellow already. Making sure Gilbert gets his chance to win (which he did). Jalabert saying, for most of us, that we love to listen to Jean-Paul Olivier describing for a minute or two, the cool buildings we see. A lovely first day.

Did you see the first black guy in the Tour, apparently the very first? I must check that out, it could be true. Europcar, Yohann Gene. He is French, from Guadaloupe, which is French territory. Seems to be able to do his job, riding in the front for Voeckler. Nice to see a peloton a little less than vanilla. What with the Maghrebin background riders El Fares and Kadri, the French are in the fore of darkening the whiteness of cycling. They also have a black track rider who can beat nearly everybody, Gregory Bauge. Note: I do not say the French are not racist, just that no one else seems to be able to find non-vanilla riders. Oh yes, the two Japanese, but I don't they are riding this year.

I genuinely enjoy watching the teams assemble at the front with less than 40k to go. All the ones who hope to have a victory, suddenly appear near the front in clusters. Trying to keep safe, trying to protect their riders, trying to be in place to counter attacks near the end. BMC, Omega, Sky, Garmin. Then, with only 15k to go, the teams try to arrange themselves for the last push. For me, watching it is like watching a very cool dance. Sadly, the list of riders who were NOT in the front, and who got caught by the last crash is quite long. Bad mistakes.

So Philippe Gilbert is the winner. Many predicted he would be, and he did it. He is meant to win stage four as well. The guy is astounding. No idea how long he will wear the yellow jersey, but currently he has every single jersey (except young of course). When this happens, the spotted jersey and the green jersey are worn by the second place rider. His team is not great at the TTT, but I should think they will be very heavily motivated, and if they won't win, they might not lose much time. He could also win on the next hilltop finish. So he could have the jersey for some time to come if the team does well in the ITT.. Amazing, the guy just executes the plan that anyone on earth could have figured. Stay at the front, use up every rider on the team, then just ride really fast to the top. What a rider! And a word for Fabian Cancellara who gave it a go and then just ran out of juice, and Thor Hushovd, who managed a third place (and was a favourite too). Admittedly it all happened in the last few k, but still, a good bit of racing. And Cadel Evans second, taking many seconds on his rivals. And we end up with a semi-unexpected event which could change a lot. It is true that everyone says there might be crashes in the first week, nervous, everyone with a chance. Vive the surprises. Suddenly the two overwhelming favourites have already lost a minute and half. Stunning. AND Gilbert had a yellow watch waiting to match the jersey he thought he might wear. Apparently, he had a tri-colour watch to match his Belgian Champions jersey. Must have a watch sponsor.

The young jersey, white, is worn by Geraint Thomas. He did this last year too. He really is a fine Welsh addition to the UK team. In fact, Geraint is sometimes considered the first possible winner of the Tour, although we still don't know how good he is in high mountains. Certainly he is good for a stage win or for classics wins.

I don't like crashes. All part of the game, of course. The race cannot stop if there is a crash at the end of the first stage. And the guys who were caught simply were not at the front, where Gilbert and Hushovd and forty others had been for some time. They made a mistake. Nevertheless, even if no one was hurt, I don't like them. As a result, the times of the finishers were varied. Some riders who rode in next to each other at the finsh have times of 1.20 behind or .06 behind. Some crashed in the right spot, closer to the finish. If you crash inside the three k mark, you get the same time as the group you were with. If you crash outside the three k mark, like Contador, etc, then you lose all the time before you cross the line. In any case, you can see from the GC (General Classification) who lost lots of time and who lost a few seconds. Nothing to do with when they cross the finish line as you can see from looking at the finish line sequence and the time lost (on the Cycling News site I mentioned, under results of the stage). Nevertheless, the two Sanchez, Hesjedal and Contador have some work to do.

Cadel looked good. Felt perky enough to gain a few more seconds on everyone and a lot on several rivals. Feeling strong enough to use the energy to place second. I was impressed. Did I mention that Voeckler was also a success, fourth. Many thought he would win or do well, and he just went and did it. Probably the French cyclist most liked for his modesty and attacking style and almost certain non-doping. They think he is an old time cyclist.

Significance of the crash? The Tour is long, many things can happen. One says this a lot, at least I do. But this particular happening happened pretty quickly. Clearly, there will be a little more attacking somewhere, since those who were caught out, S. Sanchez, LL Sanchez, Contador, Hesjedal, must all pick up time on at least Evans, Van Den Broeck (VDB), Horner, Kloden, Gesink, F. and A. Schleck, Vinokourov, EBH and Roche. Those quite serious riders, who did not get caught out by the crash, have go a huge bonus so early in the Tour. But while some of them will gradually lose or gain time on the others, when they hit the mountains, there will still be some of the lucky ones with that time gap advantage. It won't change a thing for tomorrow, and probably not for the sprint stage on Monday. But the next uphill finish, the Mur de Bretagne, on Tuesday, will be very hotly contested, by anyone who can climb a bit. Overall, we should see a bit more action than usual in the first week. Bigger time gaps. But in spite of all that, the race will probably still be won in the mountains, where minutes can vanish. Nevertheless, it is a huge time gap for a flat stage and makes the race better for sure.

As for the stage tomorrow, I reckon the top three teams will be Radio Shack, Sky and Garmin- Cervelo, or maybe HTC. I put my money on Sky to win.

Sorry it seems a bit hasty tonight, but I am going to a special festival of country music and commodities, in the next town. My wife has a recent, but serious passion for line dancing and this is a big event. I gotta go. In any case, the stage is over. We had some very fine performances, some favourites came through and damn those crashes. I figure it will be at least a week before all the effects of this time loss by strong riders will be erased. Maybe even longer.

Got back from the Country Festival at 23h30, so a bit tired, and really no capable of doing any more tonight. Usually I check the forums and various websites to see if I missed anything. Tonight, I will just have to let the errors slip in.

Vive le velo,
Tom

Pre Tour Introduction 2011

2011-07-01T11:19:00.001+02:00

Tour de France 2011 – Pre Tour Introduction

Greetings. The Tour de France is starting Saturday, so I better get this out. Please send this introduction or the URL to anyone you think might be interested. Normally the blog will be about 1,000 words long, this one is an exception. This piece is immense. There also might be photos.

I noticed, in editing this especially long piece a few times, that I made mistakes. Endearing mistakes, bad writing, embarrassing ignorance or just plain being wrong. This will continue throughout the blog. I might make simple mistakes, I might be tired from riding the bike, I might write superficial and short pieces because I am busy with other stuff, and no doubt I will mention what people “in the know” say to the media (truth content always unknown). I am actually a simple Tour fanatic who reads the paper every day, surfs a bit, checks out my cycling forums, talks to the guys in the club, writes a blog for three weeks and momentarily imagines myself Alberto Contador when I suffer up the hills around here. So, in advance, I am sorry to talk rubbish, but … I can't help it. On the other hand, this is serious bullshit I am writing. Anyway, you should know by now that I love the Tour. So please read in that spirit. I write this blog with my friends in mind. Some are Tour nutters, others just vaguely interested. One or two like reading my writing.

At this point, we know all the riders. To find the list of the riders, go to http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/start-list That site is also a good one for fairly rapid results of each stage. I won't be copying 'results of the day', as nearly anyone can find them on the web. The special eight page section for “the day before the Tour” is waiting to be read. The teams were introduced yesterday on TV, but I missed it. The new TV is ordered. We are ready.

The route is known, it looks to be a “typical Tour”, a mixed route with some quite hilly bits, some sprints and some high mountains. It begins in the west of France and hits the Pyrenees first and then the Alps. Most of the early stages are flattish, although some finish with a short steep hill climb (not usual). Some say there are eight possible sprint finishes. There are four mountaintop finishes, but also a few mountainous stages which go downhill after the last climb. There is a team time trial on stage two, but it is not long. And an individual time trial at the very end, just before the finish in Paris. Also not too long. A year without a huge Time Trial Component. But overall, nothing much unexpected. Nothing wildly radical. Typical Tour.

The rules are pretty much the same, with one notable exception. This year, there is only one intermediate sprint, at about the time the television coverage begins. The rewards for placing in this intermediate sprint are much larger than usual. So this year. I expect there will be two all-out sprints on each flattish stage, each with its own emerging strategies, I suppose. A rider could not possibly win the green jersey (usually called the sprinters' jersey, but sometimes won by a climber), without making a huge effort in the intermediate sprints. So overall, there should be a bit more to look forward to on the flatter stages, two escapes, two attempts to catch the breakaway, two sprints. Maybe. We really don't know yet.

Generally, nearly everyone thinks that the race for yellow will be between Andy Schleck, second last year, and Alberto Contador, first last year. While a trifle boring to predict the same result as last year, it is pretty reliable and easy to guess that last year's winners and high finishers will also be this year's performers. During the past two years, Alberto has been first and Andy has been second, so there is no overwhelming reason to think things will change. Unless … (when I say that, I recognise the Tour is long, last year is not this year, and anything can happen). The candidates who might disrupt the party on sporting grounds (bad luck or accidents can ruin any prediction) are riders like Frank Schleck (crashed out last year), Cadel Evans (total bust last year), Ivan Basso (also a bust 32nd), Bradley Wiggins (especially if you are English, but a bust last year), even more outsiders like Samuel Sanchez (fourth last year), Christian Vande Velde (CVV), Robert Gesink (sixth), Andreas Kloden, Jurgen Van den Broeck (tenth), Ryder Hesjedal (seventh, 2010 big surprise) and quite a few others.

All my “picking a favourite etc” energy is in my fantasy leagues until Saturday. Recently the French sports paper l'Equipe had a poll of various riders and directors from all the teams in the race. The overwhelming consensus was Alberto first, Andy second and probably Evans third. Anything other than that will be a mild or immense surprise, although there are plenty of others who could also complete the podium. Maybe we will get really lucky and Contador will have a dramatic mano a mano with Andy, while behind, six guys will be battling it out quite fiercely, for the last place on the podium. That could be good.

Without going into it yet, I will tell you, maybe, about the results of my various teams in the fantasy leagues I enter/follow. Maybe. Currently I have teams in three different leagues. I will also delight you by sharing my predictions for each stage, maybe after the stage is finished, maybe before. I am obligated by one fantasy contest to pick a winner EVERY day. Most of the contests just require picking a team and watching how they do. One, which I don't like, involves changing riders in mid-Tour. In any case, you won't find out how well or badly I am doing in anything else you read about the Tour. Exclusive here. I might be adding a word about the bike ride I might do on a given day. I will keep the twice/thrice weekly visit to the pool out of the blog.

On to the sprinters' or green jersey. You will recall that it is awarded for the rider who gains the most points at the finishes. That is, the rider who finishes well most frequently, thereby gaining most points. The sprinters get points at sprints, and climbers get them in the mountains, and various others get them here and there throughout. Usually it is the sprinters who do well in in their many sprint finishes (four mountaintop and eight flat, they say), so they win the highly respected green jersey. But ... if a race is very mountainous (like the Giro) it could be a climber who finishes well in the most stages, thereby gaining the most points.

The fastest sprinter in the world, over the last couple hundred metres, is usually Mark Cavendish, if the finish is flat, and if his lead-out train works well (more on “lead-outs” later). Cav has already won more Tour stages than anyone has ever won at his age (I should look up if Merckx had more wins in his mid twenties). If he keeps this rate up, he will break the all-time record of stage wins in the Tour, held by Eddy Merckx of course. Cav has 15, Merckx had 34. But careers are long, and many things can happen, like the emergence of better sprinters. This year, Cav claims he is going for the points jersey (as well as stage wins), so he needs to do well in many finishes AND intermediate sprints. He cannot merely win the flat stage finishes. He needs this green jersey win to be properly ensconced in Tour history. Numerous riders can beat him if his lead out train does not deliver him 200 metres from the finish, at the front, or if the finish goes up a bit, or if he makes a mistake, or if someone is just better on the day (sometimes happens). Previous winners of the jersey are always good bets to do well on a given stage. Allesandro Pettachi, Robbie McEwen, Tom Boonen and Thor Hushovd, all former winners, and even younger and faster sprinters are happy to win the jersey if Cavendish fails. Thor Hushovd is the current world champion (and the winner in 2009) so he would like to win stages or intermediate sprints wearing the rainbow jersey. It would be an extremely cool photo. McEwen will be lucky to win a stage as he is a bit old, but he is also wily and experienced. Pettachi won last year, and there is no earthly reason why he should not work hard to win this year, even though he is getting on too. He should beat Cav in one stage at least. And Tom Boonen would dearly love to prove that, given the right finish, he too can still win. His results have not been great lately. Then there are plenty of younger, less well-known sprinters who will be desperately figuring out how to beat the big names. Australian Matthew Goss is the last leadout man for Cav, but sometimes Goss could do better on uphill finishes than Cav. Yauheni Hutarovitch, the Belorussian who rides for the French team Francaises des Jeux (FDJ) has been known to pop out opportunely, as have riders like Tyler Farrar, Romain Feillu and Andrei Greipel. Some are tipping the young Russian sprinter Denis Galimzyanov. To complicate matters, some experts are picking Philippe Gilbert to win the green jersey, as he is a handy sprinter and can win stages or sprints up short steep hills. One famous L'Equipe writer picked Edvald Boasson-Hagen (EBH) to win Green. There is such uncertainty over the green jersey that this COULD be the most interesting competition during the Tour. More about the individuals as they appear. Oh yes, I also like Ben Swift of the Sky team.

The mountains jersey, the spotted one, has been quite boring in the past few years. Basically, no one seems really that keen on winning it, so there is no real competition. Not many riders aim their Tour riding at this jersey, unlike Richard Virenque (retired seven-time winner), who planned his entire Tour around winning this jersey. So this 'contest' has become deadly dull. Last year the winner was a guy that absolutely no one (except SOME French aficionados) had ever heard of, Anthony Charteau. Most people still have never heard of him, because he has not had a brilliant season and generally is not one of the best riders. He simply cannot ride up a given mountain as fast as at least 20 other riders. The 'winner' of the polka dot jersey, the 'best climber' is the result of a flawed scoring system. The actual best climber seldom wins or even wears that jersey. Points are scored for each hill in the Tour, more for difficult climbs than easy ones. Big points are scored for the very last climb if it is the finish of the stage. The boring, but recently successful strategy, is to pick a long stage with loads of high mountains. The rider escapes early on, no one cares. The stage is long. He takes most points over all the high scoring (difficult) mountains before the end, mainly because no one cares. This opportunistic rider might not win the stage, in fact is usually swept up by the real climbers in the last kilometres. But in the meantime he has picked up big points for climbing against no one. The opportunistic rider then hang on desperately during the rest of the Tour, maybe making it into another break and taking a few more points here and there on hilly bits no one cares about. This is the Virenque/Jalabert technique. I will explain it in context during the race, as it is a little bit complicated. The only part of the race where the best climbers really care and try to go really fast, is the last climb. They attack there trying to win the stage or at least go faster up the hill than their real rivals, thereby gaining time, which means they might have a better chance to win the whole shebang. Charteau finished 42nd last year. He just got dropped a lot at various points in the Tour. Even though he rode over the early climbs in the mountain stages first, since no one else cared. We shall see if anyone else cares this year. Who might care? Maybe David Moncoutié. Maybe Damiano Cunego, Egoi Martinez, no one really has a clue. More likely the winner will be a very good climber who accidentally gets in a break in an early mountain stage, and hangs on. What would really please me is if we actually saw a real battle for the jersey between two or more riders who actually want to win it. But that has not happened for well over a decade, so I am not really thinking this year will be different.

The white jersey for the best young rider is usually no 'contest' in an of itself. It is awarded to the best rider below 26, based on the Overall Time, that is the General Classification (the yellow jersey is awarded to the first place on GC). So if you are trying for a high place in the yellow jersey competition and you are young, the white jersey is a recognition of a status rather than a specialised contest. It is the GC contest, the top ten contest, the yellow jersey contest. Usually, after the first two mountain stages, the best young rider is obvious and there is no real extra interest generated. This year could be the same. Andy Schleck is too old for this jersey now, so someone else will win. The overall best guess is probably Gesink, the young Dutchman who also aspires to the podium. Kreuziger might do well, or someone who will be a complete surprise. With only Kreuziger and Gesink as serious contenders, this jersey is likely to be rather uninteresting this year. Frankly, as a 'contest' it just does not exist.

So that takes care of the jerseys, although we will hear more about them later. At least the ones which require explanation or the ones which are actual contests.

French riders. Since I live in France, I hear a bit more about the French riders than you might. I will write a bit about some of them to remind you about French riders, and amaze you with my inside knowledge, if you are not living in France. I can't do that for Spanish or Italian riders, but one could, I can't. One of my fantasy teams has ONLY French riders in it. None of the French riders are likely to make it into the top ten. If any of them do it will be a grand surprise and everyone will be delighted. If there are two, it would be cause for national celebration. Most likely the top French rider will be 12th. John Gadret might do well, but he is most likely wiped out after his fourth place in the Giro. People big up Nicolas Roche. The French generally go for stage victories at this point in history, they just don't have anyone remotely near a contender for the overall. Sylvain Chavanel is the most likely to win a stage, partly because he has done it before and partly because he is wearing the jersey of the French champion and would be desperately keen to win with the jersey on his back. Total lifetime memory. Thomas Voeckler is everyone's favourite Frenchman, mainly because he is of moderate talent, and yet he attacks constantly to win stages. A genuine, clean, mentally strong, polite and modest attacking rider. I am keeping my eye on Blel Kadri and Julien El Fares, who as you can tell are not from the Jean-Claude Dupont type of French origins. I am keen to have some non-vanilla French guy win, and either could take a stage. My other young hope is Anthony Roux, who could also take stages, and certainly will do in the future. He is more a puncheur, a guy who can make it up smaller hills at the end of stages (like stage one). Another young guy is Cyril Gautier, more likely to win something in a breakaway that goes all the way. A long time favourite is Samuel Dumoulin, who has a big punch even though he is not a proper sprinter. He is also very little, which is why I like him too. Guys like Jean-Christophe Peraud and Christophe Riblon from AG2R will be looking hard for openings. And the one Frenchman who might make the top ten is Jerome Coppel from a smaller, weaker Saur Sojasun team, invited only because they are French. But overall, it does not look like the French have not yet solved the question of where their proper big time champions have gone lately.

Anglophone riders. Although the Tour is globalised, English speakers and readers often become interested in the fate of Anglophone riders. They read more about them, they get interviewed more on Anglo channels, the Anglo commentators talk about them. This year there are two who have some kind of good chance to do quite well in the Tour. Cadel Evens, the Australian and Bradley Wiggins, the British champion. Cadel has finished second twice, was the world champion last year, and could, maybe, crack the top two. Wiggins seems to have found a better training regime this year, recently won the Dauphine, and could possibly finish in the top five. Cavendish and Farrar, we already mentioned as sprinters. One young guy, American, who might do well, although usually first-time young Tour riders hang back and watch for a bit, is Tejay Van Garderen (a name most of you won't know). I am hoping that Geraint Thomas (Welsh, where are the iconettes when you need them), although mainly helping Wiggins, will show well during the Tour. He is tremendous talent. Although he is assigned and committed to helping Alberto, Richie Porte is an Australian rider who has no serious weaknesses, he can ride in high mountains, and time trial. One way or another, he will be shining in the Tour, but maybe not this year. I would be remiss not to mention the Radio Shack trio, anyone of whom might make the top ten, Levi Leipheimer (recent victor of the Tour of Switzerland), Andreas Klöden, and Chris Horner. The one thing they all have in common is maturity, all in their late thirties, Horner (who recently won the Tour of California) is nearly forty. However, they are all very good riders, and along with younger Janez Brajkovic, the ostensible leader of Radio Shack, might well pick up the 'best team' award. I will explain later how this prize is calculated. The Irish have high hopes for Nicolas Roche, who is the only non-French guy on AG2R, but who speaks fluent French. But a top ten will be the best he can aspire to. I am hoping that Sky's Ben Swift, English, will nip in a take a few sprinting points, but there is an awful lot of competition. Garmin-Cervelo is full of Anglos, David Millar, Christian Vander Velde, Tom Danielson, Ryder Hesjedal, David Zabriskie and Tyler Farrar. At least three of them could be candidates for the top ten, and Millar and Zabriskie can always ride a good time trial. In fact, the entire team might well win the TTT on stage two. Overall, whether one is keen on British, Irish, Australian or American Anglophones, the time is ripe for language based or nationality based chauvinism.

A word about Alberto, one of the two big favourites for the win. He was found to have clenbuterol in this blood during the last Tour. In fact, it stayed in his blood for several days, so it was found in four tests in a row. He was a bit unlucky to have got caught, as they sent his sample to one of the very few labs that would have have been able to detect that amount. But the limit is zero clenbuterol, so the minutest amount is illegal. He claims he ate some contaminated beef. Nearly everyone else reckons he was doing some drugs and hiding it with clenbuterol, which he took at the wrong time. There is another factor too, but it is seldom mentioned now. Although it is not yet illegal to having “plasticisers” in your blood (Google it, as I got bored trying to figure it out), most people think that the plasticisers found in Alberto’s blood came from a bag of plasma, that he had auto-transfused. Re-injecting your own blood to increase the red blood cells is illegal. But they have not yet figured out how to detect it reliably, if the blood is taken skilfully, at the right time. Apparently there are plasticisers in the blood bags which prevent the blood from coagulating. He might have taken out some of his blood well in advance of the Tour and re-injected it during the Tour. The sad joke of it all is that although cycling seems to have good testing procedures, maybe, it has no way to deal with the violations judicially, with even a reasonable rapidity. So the Contador drug process is still going on, and Contador can continue to ride. The acute silliness comes out when we see that Contador is found guilty on appeal (he has been whitewashed by the Spanish Federation), he will lose the 2010 Tour (2011 Tour result) and his win in the Giro 2011, plus all other victories since July 2010. If he is declared innocent, he will have won two (or three) Grand Tours, if not, he will have won none of them. He gets to ride even though he is under review. Not like the cop shops on TV in the USA, when you have turn in your badge and gun while under review. Anyway, it is all a mess and shows that the UCI (the governing body of cycling globally) as well as other national and international bodies, are slow and incompetent, and perhaps corrupt as well. Huge mess. I hope to avoid all writing about drugs and legalities and medicine during the Tour. Hah!

What are the crucial stages of the Tour, the ones you just don't want to miss? Fortunately my careful research on the subject found an article this week in the most popular daily newspaper in France. I will often share insights gleaned from l'Equipe during this Tour, since I read every word every day, normally. L'Equipe asked 92 staff and riders of all the teams to predict the winners, the 'revelations' (riders who shine unexpectedly), AND the most crucial bits of the race. Their collective verdict? Although the climb of the Galibier (stage 18) got most votes (31), the following crucial stages were not far behind. The stage to Alpe d'Huez was second with 26 votes and the time trial at the end, in Grenoble, got 25 votes. Plateau de Beille and 'the last week' got 8 and 5 votes. So, no big surprises. Watch the mountain stages in the last week, and if you are really keen, check out the time trial. I would also say that the first and fourth stages might have some interesting action at the very end. Furthermore, watching a team time trial (second stage) is always an aesthetic treat. The third stage, will be a sprinters' stage, we should have a pretty good time in the first four days. I will warn you about each stage the day before, very briefly. So you have time, and feel a bit relaxed, watch the last bit of the stages for a week or so. Most of the action should take place at the end. On the other hand, if you have a HD big screen TV, which I should have before they get to the Massif Central, lolling in front of the box is a very good way to spend most afternoons for three weeks. Unless of course, you have something better to do. Me, I declare it my annual holiday and ride the bike and watch the Tour and write the blog. Unless I have something better to do.

If you got this far, you are clearly a bit interested. Remember, if you are, you have to surf find the rest of what I write. http://tourtom.blogspot.com/ For those of you new to these writings, some days I don't spend a lot of time on the blog. Maybe LESS than 1,000 words. Perhaps the stage was not really that interesting, or I had something better to do. One year, just at the end of the Tour, I got seriously ill, and stopped writing altogether as I was in hospital, without a connection. Rather dramatic and I hope it will never happen again. Normalement, the daily piece should be on line by about 2300 French time. I have to sleep.

I am, as ever, looking forward to it. I can see that if most of the punters are right, there might not be a very exciting race for the yellow jersey. But maybe more than two guys will be battling it out! Would that be good?

In case you are betting, or care to guess who might win the first stage, I would say two obvious choices might be Matthew Goss (HTC) or Philippe Gilbert (Omega-Lotto) and a long odds outsider could be Anthony Roux (FDJ). On the other hand it could be Thor Hushovd, he is good on uphill finishes. I should think the last half hour might be full of action and exciting. The stage ends on a long hill, where most of the frantic action should take place. Since the yellow jersey will be up for grabs, everyone will be trying very hard. I will tell you who I picked later, I must get this off.

Next blog after the stage fisnish on Saturday, although it might be shorter than usual. As predicted above, I already have “something better to do” on Saturday night. Sorry. This really was way too long. Editing took many minutes, maybe hours. 1,000 words from now on.

Vive le vélo.

2010-07-26T08:28:00.002+02:00

Stage 20 25-7-10

My last blog is never very long. I usually promise that I will do a reflection of some sort and publish it later, but I seldom do. So this time I will not make the promise. Should you wish to check in about a week, you MIGHT find a more considered view of the Tour. I might even pick some people or teams like this. The set of questions from one of my cycling forums.

Best stage(s) – Stage 3 Had me on the edge of my seat for many minutes. Stage 17 was pretty good.

Most Surprising Team – Bbox, visible throughout even though without any really good riders.

Most Surprising Rider – Anthony Charteau, (who?) will no longer be a question. Hesjedal, for finishing so high. Navarro, riding for hours up hills making other riders suffer, his speed dropping many riders more famous than he.

Chapeaux – Fignon and Jalabert for being the best commentators ever. The French riders, for making the best of their resources to win stages, not races. France, for continuing to have the most gorgeous countryside on earth.

Maglia Merde – Don't think it is a good idea. But if I gave it it might be for the bad jokes and negative reference to 'mamy' (older ladies) as the opposite of the young macho fit lads on TV and therefore somehow sadder people than young lads. Totally disrespectful and examples of 'bad jokes'.

Best tactical decision – Get Cancellara to stop the race for the Schlecks. Get Schleck to follow Cancellara the next day. Riis triumphs again.

Best tactics – Astana for covering up Contador's bad days.

Worst tactics – Stopping Schleck from attacking more. Riis loses again.

Funniest moment – Hardly anything funny at all.

Giro or TDF? TDF, always the best spectacle, Giro the best cycling race as such.

But the truth of the matter is that by now, blogwise, I am tired and glad it is over. I peak at about the two week mark and it is hard work after that. The Tour has its motivating factors, so I usually continue. I will read al the mags I possibly can afterwards, and enjoy every minute. No doubt I will go back over the record of the race and see what happened in relation to what people say happened, there are always several races being reported on. Like the glorious final race of LA. Like the Chaingate story, which no doubt will run forever. Like the green jersey story. Like the crash of Frank. And then we get into transfer stories. There is much to learn. And much to follow.

So Cav won the sprint, almost on his own. He was dumped very nicely at the last corner, and then just accelerated. He failed to win the jersey, maybe by not trying when he saw he had lost back on stage 2 or was it four. He just gave up. There were two complete surprises, utterly unpredicted by anyone, with Pettachi and Charteau. The last was not even envisaged by his mother. This is unusual.

Like I said, it is short. I liked the Tour. I think it was far more interesting day to day than average. It had plenty of spectacle. And you know the thing I liked best … they caught no one using drugs, they never talked much about drugs and as far as we can tell at this moment, it might have been a clean Tour.

More in about a week. My excuse is that I had a couple of long family calls tonight, big changes ahead, and these took up most of my evening.

Good Tour, I enjoyed many many moments.

2010-07-24T23:15:00.002+02:00

Stage 19 24-7-10

Whew, that was a nice little twist at the end. They got me with that one. Suddenly Schleck might NOT lose the time trial. I kept waiting for him to fade and for Contador to win. It did happen, but it took long enough. Wondering wondering. There were some fine moments in the Tour and those waiting minutes were some of them. It was good to see that next year, no one will be able to say that The two 'heroes' are evenly matched in the mountains, but not in the TT. It looks to be a fine five or six years MORE with these two battling it out. Although Contador does say he had more than one bad day this year. Of course, there will be additional factors or riders in the race that we don't know about and some we do. I mean Menchov was not that far behind. And there is a generation of younger guys that still have plenty of room for improvement. Looking good. Maybe there will be more 'one person dominance', a la Lance and Miguel, but maybe not. That gives us enough uncertainty to keep us going for a few more years.

So Contador won yellow, unless something happens. Pettachi wins green, unless he finishes seventh in the sprint and Cav wins. Even here we still have some suspense, although of the long shot variety. I think Vino still might pull off a 2005 finish, just to say goodbye to active cycling. Otherwise he might have to ride all next year too.

It should be said that some rides today had more meaning that others. For example, Wiggins is one of the few 'later riders' who managed to crack the top ten. I am almost sure that when I woke up from my nap, near to 1530 or 1545, the top ten looked pretty much like it looked earlier when I took the nap. And it stayed the same, more or less, until the end. Menchov also did very well, very well indeed, given that no one with the wind against them did as well as usual. Menchov did better than Vino and Contador by close to two minutes. Put another way, Menchov beat Contador and Schleck by nearly two minutes, even thought they were riding at the same time. The wind made a huge difference. However, I would highlight of course Cancellara and Martin, who most likely would have won anyway. But guys like Menchov, Wiggins, Vino and Contador, not to mention Schleck should have been way higher and faster than the earlier starters, IF everything were equal. Any one of them could WIN a time trial, not finish, 9, 11, 33, 35, 40, 41 and 48. Just not right. But it does put Menchov and Wiggins in perspective. They did well in spite of the wind. NO idea what this will mean during the long time trial in next year's Tour.

Cancellara and Martin have now proven that on any given day, in any given time trial, they are likely to be head and shoulders above the rest, maybe. They did a terrific ride, both of them. And I like Fabian a lot as personality. He speaks five or so languages. He can make wee jokes in French and English at least. He never seems that perturbed. He is friendly and likes his teammates and other cyclists. Although few riders could have calmed the peloton at Spa, he could. He is the guy (under the orders of Riis) who won the Tour for Andy. He has a way of also not talking nonsense, or if he does, he laughs at himself. He seems honest. I would be so upset about professional cycling if he ever turns out to be a doper. I am delighted he won that stage. I just kick myself for not having him on the fantasy team instead of, for example, Frank Schleck. I might have won something. Bravo my hero Fabian. To the extent that I have heroes of course.

Are there any real puzzles in the stage results? Other than noting that those who rode later had a big three quarter headwind, and those earlier did not, not much. So the times that are disappointing are not THAT disappointing. So Fabian is no surprise, Martin either. I think two thirds of my cycling forum picked one or the other to win. A few picked Contador. The funny thing is that in our daily contest, all the players but one changed from Cancellara, because our betting system rewards those who are NOT the eighth to pick Cancellara, but the one person that picked Grabsch, which no one did.

Third through sixth places on the stage are not a surprise at all. Any of them could win a lesser time trail and are well known to be fast. Kiriyenka is not a big puzzle, as I suspect that we will see him often in the top ten in the next years. But we have not seen him a lot before, so hello Vasil! I guess I should know something more about Morenhout or Tjallingij as TTers, but I don't. I can't yet spell their names with looking. Must see if they have done well before, but I just don't know anything about them. Actually Morenhout is 36 and wins a race now and again, even the national road race championship ofHolland. Never have seen him this high in theTour. Tjallingij is 32 and has won a fe races, but nothing for three years. He is a vegetarian. Wiggins and Menchov for me are the best of the rest, they were late starters. I was most impressed. Geraint Thomas, 'the young Welshman on his first Tour' was riding well. Good for him. We now know he can do a good TT at the highest level and also sprint. What he can't do is climb in the high mountains. Yet. Could he be the British guy who wins the Tour? Jeremy Roy being the top French rider should be a little bit disquieting for some of the other French riders, who really should have done better than him. Still 12th is quite good for Roy, chapeau. Although Maxime Monfort is one of my favourite Belgians actually, but seeing Stuart O Grady, at his age, doing so well makes me feel warm all over. Other notes are that Muryev being the top placed Shack rider might annoy some people and even embarrass some. Shack did bugger all this TT, they just didn't care, the lot of them. I guess they had the team award in the bag. The last word is for our David (Millar). I hope he keeps riding, but this Tour he did not have a lot of good fortune. Still he was there, and even in the last TT, he managed a respectable 17th, although a guy like him should be in the top ten in every time trial. Such class. So good looking on the bike. They talk of Schleck's height being some kind of problem with him getting into a decent TT position. It certainly is true his position just catches the wind, it is terrible. But Millar is 4 cms taller and ten kilos heaver and he has a position to dream about. They both have to follow the same rules about the dimensions of the bike. Maybe Schleck has a hugely long chest, and short legs, but it does not look like that on the bike. He has long legs. Anyway, who knows why a second place guy in the Tour can't find a good position on the bike. He might have won if he had not lost over a minute on the prologue and TT. Anyway, it was a moderately interesting time trial.

Looking at the General Classification, what changed? Well actually, not much at all. I already mentioned Menchov beating Sanchez. Hesjedal went up one place, so did Lovkvist and DeWeert. Gadret went down to make room for them, and Sastre moved into the top twenty, while Moreno drifted out. So the time trial really didn't do much to the overall GC placings, with the exception of the move by Menchov onto the podium. It also means that Gadret will not be the first Frenchman. Nicolas Roche will be that, even though Gadret did not lend him his bike when Roche needed it in the mountains. Roche still wouldn't have made it into the top ten, but still, he did well. Roche has been tipped by many French people as being the best of the current young crop. He is 25 years old, the same as Schleck. No doubt if he continues to mature he might someday be in the top ten, but it seems hard to imagine him winning the Tour. That takes care of the top twenty.

So who is Kevin de Weert? He is 28, never ridden the Tour before, rides for Quick Step, 1.82 m and 70kg. He has essentially done not much, under 17 TT champ and under 19 TT champ in Belgium, in 2000, he won the Giro de Tuscany, and was fourth in the Etoile de Besseges in 2007. Otherwise, zip. Now the question arises, how did a guy like him beat (he finished 18th) Sastre, Armstrong, Wiggins, Casar, Evans, Cunego, Basso, Rogers … I know, he had no team responsibilities and blah blah. But that tiny story is what makes theTour interesting to me. I will never know the answer because I have no interest in a Belgian rider called de Weert. Maybe I should? But in fact, in the Tour 2010, he beat all those guys who one would suppose are in another league to him for any cycling historian.

Overall, I was rather pleased with this Tour. I think it is one of the good ones. I do remember 1989 and 2003 still quite fondly. This year there were several bizarre and controversial events. Disqualifications, chains slipping, falls here and there, peloton waiting for two guys who were not even in yellow or high on the GC, lack of attacking, unbelievable French wins (three in a row in the mountains), battles that never really happened as such, cobbles (which was a great day of racing spectacle), the clarity with which we now KNOW that we have five or six years of watching Schleck and Contador trying to beat each other and whoever comes up in the next bunch. I say Romain Sicard and Fabian Taillefer. Remember that last name and that you heard me mention it first, although I did mention it last year too. Although we still don't know for sure about EBH, who I guess can't do big mountains. Or Peter Sagan, who has possibilities. Much less the 'almost men' like Lovkvist who might someday mature, maybe. Or what EBH might do if he does not have such a horrible year, although maybe he too won't be able to do high mountains. Most days there was something to keep us going, although without going into details, there were also a few too many days when nothing much happened. That is, if it were a one day race, we would have not thought much of it. But you can't have a one day classic every day for three weeks. They do have to rest a bit. I understand that, but as a spectator, I often get impatient. The Giro is better that way, in terms of cycling entertainment. But the Tour is the Tour and this was a good one. Or pretty good anyway. I do think what happened in the Pyrenees, for whatever reason and with whatever excuse, was a huge waste of good mountains. I mean, after about five kilometres of watching the two lads ride up the Tourmalet, most of us really wanted one or the other of them to attack and get rid of the other one, even if the other one came back and counter-attacked. 'Together' is a touch less exciting really. And when will we next finish on the Tourmalet? We deserved more. Mind you, the weather was a bit much too. They should have had better weather on the Tourmalet. The image of two guys riding side by side or yellow behind white, in the fog, is dramatic for the first five k, then it gets old. Imagine it, Schleck attacks, drops the yellow guy. Moments later, out of the fog, comes the yellow guy. Good, right? And again once or twice before one of them actually WON. They should have sprinted desperately, both of them. But one was giving a gift to the other, to repay for a dubious slight given the day before. I mean. Its a bloody race!

I am sorry Frank Schleck crashed out. But overall, more riders finished this Tour than any other in living memory, in fact, more riders finished this Tour than any other, full stop. I will not do percentage calculations for each year, but not many quit, were seriously injured, got wasted, disqualified or whatever. NOT ONE sprinter at the top of the table quit voluntarily, they all rode over the mountains. I shall look into this in slightly greater details maybe tomorrow. Lots of guys riding on antibiotics with bronchitis, but that is quite normal.

Some teams must have been a bit disappointed. I can't imagine how Sky or Milram, or Cofidis or Liquigas or Footon can say they had a good Tour. And frankly, Rabobank, even if they have a podium place and another top ten, really did not 'animate the race'. I mean it is nice to quietly win a podium place, but no one will remember where Menchov lost the time, where he gained the time. He just kept on keeping on. And rode a brilliant TT. But even Rabobank might be a little less than happy. From my point of view anyway, not from theirs.

Funny thing is that people have such disagreements on the Tour, in the sense of was it a vintage Tour or just average or even below average. Some do think it was below average, even boring. Not me. I figure it was above average, but not vintage.

Don't forget I mentioned Hesjedal in my preview. He did well. Very well. But he is not young.

And last but not least, Radio Shack is the 'best team' in the Tour. Lance will be proud.

Voila. Another day, and we shall know the final jersey, the green one, but it should be clear already. I do not wish Pettachi the bad luck to finish ninth, not at all. And I hope Cav wins, unless it is Vino trying to do 2005 again.

2010-07-23T23:16:00.002+02:00

Stage 18 23-7-10

Today the Tour finished in Bordeaux, city with a very rich heritage in architecture, stemming from very rich people making loads of money from wine for hundreds of years. Apparently gorgeous and I intend to check it out in a week or so. In addition it is the second most prestigious sprinters' stage, after Paris of course. Although there was a break of four, there were too few riders for it to succeed under the onslaught of the sprinters' teams, riding for nearly the last victory. The result was predictable, the break were swallowed up and the sprinting trains were put in place. The man of the day was Mark Cavendish, to no great surprise. Julian Dean, the guy who bundled Renshaw out of the Tour, was second, and Pettachi third. Thor Hushovd finished in fourteenth place, and admitted in an interview that his Tour was over, there was no chance he would win the green jersey. He said what everyone knew already, that he was just not up to much in the sprints themselves. So whatever other points he got were just not enough. In fact, today was a good example. All the sprinters were ahead of Thor and the guys immediately behind were not sprinters. He was the last sprinter. Unless something awful happens, Allessandro Pettachi should win the green jersey in Paris. End of suspense. I think even if Cav wins, Pettachi has to finish worse than seventh. Not much chance of that. Unless something happens.

Perhaps I have been a bit hard on Anthony Charteau these last days. There are other ways to look at his totally unforeseen victory in the competition for 'the best climber'. First, it was unpredictable. I often go on about uncertainty being the key to a good race, and yet when something totally improbable happens, I don't get excited. In fact, I don't even like it much, it disturbs me. This is not consistent (although consistency is not a value that is supreme, in my view). Maybe I should be happier. Furthermore he is almost certainly not a doper. When you look at recent winners, Rasmussen, Pellizotti, Virenque, Jalabert, Kohl, all of them are either convicted dopers or almost certainly dopers who were not caught. So we got a clean one this time. Furthermore, unlike the case of those guys, this is the biggest event that has ever happened in Charteau's life. He is a little guy, a loyal team mate, and worker. Obviously he has a bit of will power and focus. He has nothing about him that is fancy, more a modest local personality. I should be a little bit happier that there is still room for a guy like him in a media circus event of global proportions. Maybe it will restart his career, even at his advanced age. That would be nice. On the other hand, I can't help but wish for a Tour where there is a serious competition between two excellent climbers, who race each other to the tops of hills and mountains. Like the green jersey competition.

Today it was Cameron Diaz (who I have never liked much) and Tom Cruise who were in town waffling on about the Tour and posing with Contador and Schleck.

For those of you who might think I ignore the team classification, here it is. Radio Shack have it in the bag.

1 Team Radioshack 264:36:07
2 Caisse d'Epargne 0:08:30
3 Rabobank 0:33:39

Nothing changed on the GC. It seldom does on a sprint stage.

I am rather glad that Cav won without his usual leadout train. It may well be that disrupting the HTC train is one way to stop Cav from winning, but in fact he now appears to be able to win without the last leadout man. If you watch the video you see him searching for the right wheel to follow, eventually settling on Pettachi. Once he was on the wheel, he just picked a moment and left the others behind. Simple really. But it is slightly harder without a leadout man, and requires a reading of the race, good quick decisions, and a bit of luck. I think there is little doubt that if he tries to keep his personal life a little bit orderly, then there is no reason he won't be setting records for years to come. Keep in mind that if he keeps this up for ten years, he still won't be as old as Pettachi. Which reminds me to tip a chapeau to Alessandro, he has done really well this Tour and would clearly deserve the green jersey.

So all we have left is the time trial. Most observers are convinced there is no chance that Contador can blow the time trial and lose to Schleck. The only question is whether Schleck will lose 30 seconds or two minutes. I think happy endings and tidiness will be best served if Contador takes at least a minute out of Schleck. Anything less will not be impressive. Already Contador has not won a single stage, which is not utterly unknown, but a bit rare. Usually if this happens, there is talk of winning 'without panache'. Panache is crucial to French people. What they call panache does not always seem to be that, but who knows. There is some chance, but a very slim one that Alberto will win the time trial. But with guys like Cancellara, Martin, Wiggo, Kloden, Armstrong (?), Evans, Zabriskie and others, it is unlikely that Contador will win the stage. The weather promises to be cool and partly cloudy or a bit sunny. Perfect, no rain, no heat, nothing to trouble anyone.

There was a moment during the Tour commentary when Jalabert and Fignon were both asked to evaluate the Tour. Fignon was most critical, saying Schleck had a poor team, never really tried anything much except that last day, made no real improvisations, and that the Tour was a series of occasions lost. We never really saw a battle, and there were not very many examples of tactics. Basically Andy has to train a bit more, and get better at time trials, as well as learn a bit more about tactics and surprise. Fignon also said a good word for the French riders who won stages, and a bit for Charteau, but without much conviction. Jalabert was not so brutal, but did agree that there were many fewer attacks than there could have been. He also contended that the two should have sprinted for the end of the stage instead of it being a Contador gift. The two Laurents had always been clear that Alberto did nothing wrong and has nothing to be sorry for and no reason to give gifts.

In case you wondered, when cruising comfortably along on the flat, the peloton does about 60kph and when getting set up for the sprint they do 70kph on the flat. This is of course with most of the riders hiding in the wind shadow of the peloton and others rotating in front. No one can ride for many kilometres at that speed on their own. Further important information, in the last 25 k or more, the HTC team rode in front for 52 percent of the time, Lampre (Pettachi) for 40% and the rest was Milram. The first two got their rewards, but Ciolek has been a big disappointment in this Tour. He left Cav's team to be a star, but turned out not to be. I wonder if this will happen to Greipel.

The French word for riding like the wind is 'fulgurant', like lightning.

People say this has been a hard Tour, lots of heat, accidents everywhere, loads of climbing and so forth. But in fact, there have never been so many riders finishing the Tour as this year. More than any other year, by far. I say this shows that although the weather was hot, and there were climbs, there was not so much hard racing as usual.

Quotes from Cavendish. "I wasn’t sure if I was going to even start the stage. I’ve been sick the last four days with bronchitis – actually, there are a hell of a lot of guys in the peloton with the same thing so I’m not only one [ed note Pettachi too has bronchitis]. But I finally had the fever yesterday and I was dead last night and never thought I could start today. We decided, ‘Oh, okay I’ll go. If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t…’ Even during the stage, I was speaking with Brad [Wiggins] and he said, ‘Are you sprinting today?’ And I told him, ‘Yeah.’"
"He then told me that I’m not normally as talkative as I was when I’m up for a sprint. But I told him that we didn’t really have the pressure on and if I don’t win, we know the reason… but it was so nice to see the guys working so incredibly hard. I was sitting in 10th wheel and the guys were pulling and pulling and pulling. The guys in the escape were strong and also very clever and, as we saw in the end, it was hard to bring back [Daniel] Oss – he did a brilliant ride at the finish – and we had to use Michael [Rogers] and Tony [Martin] to pull him back."

Must get to bed. I am sorry the Tour is nearly over. Although I do like to watch them do the Champs Elysées One day, live.

2010-07-22T23:54:00.001+02:00

Stage 17 22-7-10

So much of the Tour is over. Those of us wary of the spiritual hole in our lives created by the end of The Tour have to prepare for re-entry. More time on errands, see a few people you've ignored, catch up on work. But of course it is only over 'if nothing happens'. This is a phrase common to writing about sporting events like this. It really means if nothing out of the ordinary happens, with emphasis on bad things. In other words if there is no really bad thing that happens, like falling and breaking a leg, then Contador has won. If a young hitherto mediocre time triallist suddenly beats one of the best time triallists on earth, then maybe Contador won't win, and Schleck will. But I think there is not a cycling commentator on earth who would say the race is not over, in terms of the yellow jersey. No one would wish that Contador NOT win, on sporting grounds.

The polka dot jersey for the best climber is also done and dusted. There are no more hills. It goes to a rider who even those who follow French cycling might not quite remember the name of or simply have never heard of him. Seems a very nice fellow. Chapeau to him, as his careful attention to the rules, a certain fitness, a determination matched by no one else, led to him earning the jersey fair and square. The jersey has been won by French non-climbers several times in the past. But when I identify with the Tour and want it to be pure and honest and full of uncertainty and excitement, with heroes and villains, and those who suffer, I have to work hard to make room for the jersey being won by a 'nobody'. Now what WOULD be cool is if this 29 year old, almost at the end of the career, one win a year rider was transformed into someone who might win any race when it goes up. A real climber. That would be a happy ending. Until then we have a chapeau to Charteau. May we hear of him again.

The young jersey was never much in doubt. A guy who finishes second in the Tour two years in a row is unlikely to have any other young riders close to him. You can't use 'a strategy' to win this classification. It is the genuine indisputable award to someone who has the very best time, and therefore the very best placing of anyone 25 or younger. You can't follow rules to get the award, you have to beat guys like Gesink, Kreuziger, Rolland, Gautier, Koren (never noticed him either) and El Fares. Several of the competitor to Schleck as 'young riders' are French, and according to this Tour prize category, they will be the guys for the future. Actually one of the 'young' riders already have finished second twice now. Some years ago, a guy called Ullrich won the young rider's jersey for three years in a row. Anyway, details aside, Andy Schleck was the best young rider and almost the best rider regardless of age. Next year he won't be 'young', and we will begin to see what he makes of his career. Most people think he should learn a bit of time trial skill and conditioning. He does not seem deeply interested. The story of Andy Schleck will run and run. The last five best young riders have been Schleck twice, Contador, Cunego and Popovych. Not bad company. IN fact, Andy and Jan are the only one to have won the white jersey three times since it began in 1975.

The battle for the green jersey runs on. It seems as if ALL three of the contenders have made it through the mountains. So we get to observe whether Hushovd, Pettachi or Cavendish will wear the green AFTER the last stage. I think it is nearly impossible that Cav will don the green in Bordeaux. Something would have to happen. No idea whether Pettachi or Hushovd will be wearing it. My best guess, with only two stages to go and one of them not counting for green points, is that the green jersey will be resolved when the first ten riders pass the line on the Champs on Sunday. Don't forget what Vino did in when was it, 2005. Cav could win both sprints, taking his total to five this year, and still not win the jersey. I was wrong in my own prediction that the jersey would be won by an all rounder, someone who could win in the medium hills and pick up points on sprints. Like Boasson Hagen. Sadly he didn't do it, and the first few green jersey guys are sprinters, as usual. In any case, it is one race that is still being run.

The really big losers of the day were Leipheimer and Vinokourov. Of course Basso also had a very bad day, dropped right out of the top twenty entirely. Vino dropped from 9th to 16th and Leipheimer from 7th - 13th . You don't usually get such big failures so late. Well, maybe if the race is hard you do. I think we can conclude that the race has been quite hard, all things considered. And although one could be a little bit sad about the last stage (not a lot of racing in some ways), it was a very hard stage. Really hard. The fact that one or two guys can lose big time is not that rare really. I mean Vino having a hard day is really easy to understand. He got his stage win after two days of trying hard, and it knackered him.

All that having been said, the headline of the day was a question. Can Andy drop Alberto on any climb? The answer at this point in history is no. No, Andy cannot drop Alberto, and Alberto has never had to try really hard to drop Andy. So we don't know. Most likely conclusion is that unless one of them has a bad day, they are just about equal in the mountains. And it is a 100% opinion that Alberto can take at least a minute, maybe two out of Andy on a 40k time trial. I rather enjoyed the last climb. I liked the riders being dropped. I was a bit sorry that they didn't race more against each other. The best of the dropped ones, I mean. The headline story is the mano a mano (this expression seems to be preferred one of English speakers and French speakers. I don't know what the Italians call it. It was in the fog, so we didn't get any good landscape shots, just the two guys riding along with each other. A bit atmospheric I admit. Andy tried some variations of pace, but never really attacked. Contador followed him. Alberto made one sharp attack, and kept going, but within maybe 25 seconds, Andy was on his wheel. I don't think they did much of that for the last few k. And at the end, Alberto did not sprint for the win. They had a spontaneous on the bike arm clasp/hug, initiated by Andy. They did other congratulatory gestures. Including one exchange I saw several times in which there was not a 'feel' of conviviality and respect. So for the next five years or so, we might (if nothing happens) be treated to these two, and whatever others can be found, duke it out. I am not saying that Janez Brajkovic is the answer, but that there are young riders who will contest future TdFs, with these two as the top guys. They are the top guys. In July.

I was a bit sad about Sastre. True, he is on some of my teams. And everyone always has him on the list of favourites. True, he did well in the Giro in 2009, but the rest of the time, he has not really been a serious contender. Just isn't good enough. Still very good indeed. Most riders would not even try to do what he does. They KNOW they would fail. He still tries. That makes cycling more interesting, since you never know if he might succeed. Success makes makes a better story than failure, but they both work in the Tour. Lance, of whom we need not speak very much in the near future, tried to go out with blaze of glory. I wanted it to end with Lance nearly winning the stage, but suddenly a younger and better rider just passes him and wins the stage. But he just lost to more than one young guy. Lance is not good enough any more. He should quit. Everyone liked his blaze of glory attempt. It was cool. Sastre's attempt today did seem a bit of waste of energy.

I am hoping the time trial might be really good for my various teams. I am not doing all that well this year. I didn't pick Cancellara, and I did pick Frank Schleck. Furthermore my second sprinter was Farrar, who left the race without a big impact. Could have picked Pettachi (never would have) or Hushovd (almost did). I only had two sprinters, because I thought it was a race where GC guys would win stages at the tops of mountains. Turns out that they didn't, guys who could climb reasonably well won mountain stages, many of them French. I scored zilch. Nevertheless I didn't do badly. And if Tony Martin scores a bit in the TT by doing well, and Bradley Wiggins, then not having Cancellara might not be such a bad thing. Cancellara got loads of points for the yellow jersey, and finishing high up on two stages at the beginning. He really did ride well for Schleck on the cobbles. That was brilliant. I will tell you, if I remember, how I did on the Fantasy Cycling. Or maybe I will just ask those who care to email me. Who really cares? Well, I do. I try to win or place high on any league I enter. Although I also enter experimental teams, which will not win, but I am just curious how they do. Like my All French Team, how will they have done? Or the OLD Guys team of over 35s?

My wife said she can't believe it was as boring as every other stage (she said this with 23 k to go). She did get into the mano a mano as theatre, but she was right. For most of the stage nothing happened. It was again this 'one climax' style of course design. Last year it was Ventoux, which was a little boring. Imagine, Ventoux was a bit boring! And this Tourmalet was a bit boring. I think the multiple and complex climax Tour is better. Do you see? How can we leave a race to have ONE point where it is decided. Why not four or five, like the Giro?

Still, don't get me wrong, it was a good Tour. I am not complaining about THE TOUR. How could I ever do that? They should get a new script writer, one that favours four or five crucial points in a race where it could be won or lost. Not one big whopper. No doubt there will be acres of ink filled with speculations about that. But it was good race. And of course it is not over yet. Not by any means. There is still the 'something happens' and the time trial. Along the way we can eye up the green jersey competition. Should be a good weekend.

Oh yes, looks like Radio Shack will win the team prize. So officially, in adverts and such, Radio Shack will be the 'best team' in the Tour de France. That's the one where they take the top three finishers for each team on a given day, add their times and add that sum to the previous sum for that team. Its a bit complicated until you figure it out. It is an attempt to 'measure' what is 'best'. I think that most people would say that the Astana team or the Saxo Bank team are better than RadioShack. It is a bit like the best climber jersey. It is hard to quantify what is the best team or the best climber.

There was another one of these slightly silly episodes where 'the peloton' attempted to do the right thing when a rider crashed. It was the guy in third place. So do you wait or not? The answer seemed to be that Contador said slow down and wait, and everyone did. Except Carlos Sastre, who insisted on attacking. In this case, since his attack was totally futile, Sastre should maybe have taken a breather. I guess he thought he could ride really fast up the Tourmalet and take the stage. He was way off in his self assessment.

I think that is it. I had thought I might be describing a complex race, with victors and losers and drama and such. Actually it was a bit like that, but not really. Looking at the finishing times, it is clear there are two riders who are best and a lot of others who flow in about the same time on most days. Some have a good day. They vault up two or three places or even more. For example today GOOD rides were made by Horner, who moved into the top ten from outside the top twenty! Also Rodriguez, Hesjedal and Kreuziger moved up one or two places, made by the exit of Vino and Leipheimer, both of whom made space in the top ten by plunging out of it.

12 Ruben Plaza Molina (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:13:01
13 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack 0:14:24
14 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team Radioshack 0:14:44
15 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:16:00
16 Alexander Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 0:17:57
17 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:17:59
18 Thomas Löfkvist (Swe) SkyTeam 0:18:30
19 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quick Step 0:20:03
20 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:25:23

Plaza, Gadret, De Weert and Moreno are not guys I know well or would have ever predicted would be in the top 20. In any case, after the time trial they might not be in the top twenty. My own guess is that there could be some changes after the TT, but none of them terribly serious for the GC. Most of the better riders can do a respectable time trial and not lose that much time on the, for example, twelfth place rider. Guys like Tony Martin or Fabian Cancellara might well do the best time trials, not to mention other time triallists who made it through the mountains in half decent shape. Wiggins? Kiriyenka? Evans? Kloden? Leipheimer? Armstrong? Brajkovic? These guys have no hope on the GC. They have no team duties to do after the TT, just ride slowly to Paris. Or they are guys who had a bit of bad luck and can now redeem themselves. Teammates (like Brajkovic) who had to ride slowly along with an ageing boss, and can now let loose. And of course, there is Andy, who might have been hiding his time trialling skills. Fabian can talk to him.

Off to bed. I have a busy day tomorrow. I hope to try and break out of the 'Tour is Everything' mentality and begin to adjust to real life. After all, tomorrow, it is going to a sprint and Cav will win and we have to see how Pettachi and Hushovd place. I am a bit sad that I am not going to see that sprint live, nor the time trial. But the idea of trying combine a visit with the family AND an obsession with the Tour was not possible. They would just not get it. And we would end up neither 'seeing' the Tour nor 'seeing' them. First year I have not actually seen the Tour in ages, but when illness strikes, illness strikes. Next year!

My parting thought for the day is 'Who is Kevin De Weert/”

2010-07-20T23:18:00.001+02:00

Stage 16 20-7-10

I was ready for this stage. I thought it would be a good one, and started watching quite early on. Not THAT early, as they had already got over the Peyresourde. One reason it was to be good was the actual route. Unlike most of the stages, I have actually been on those very roads. Riding my bike, with luggage. Peyresourde, Aspin, Tourmalet (not Aubisque). I am sure there are tens of thousands of riders, all over the world who watch stages like this, and enjoy them more, because they have actually ridden the route. About four years ago, the Tour climbed a climb around here that I often ride. Furthermore, on this stage, while staying at the hotel in St. Marie de Campan, where the route to climb the Tourmalet begins, I met a cycling pal who might still be a pal until one of us dies. One of those lucky events. He might be reading this right now. Hey, John. Saw the hotel quite clearly this time. So, considerably more than roads I have not ridden, these roads are magic. So the stage was to be magic. A far as the roads go, it was magic. But as for the bike race ...

Things started really well. I was quite excited during the first 50k. Even called it a classic stage. Schleck was isolated from all his teammates on the Peyresourde, already. Astana, for example, had three guys and Contador. I thought, oh goodness, maybe Schleck will be weak today. He looked a bit stiff too, and Alberto looked very supple. So there looked to be an unequal situation going in the MJ department. I was really looking forward to seeing how this inequality would play out.

There was also a break, a really good one actually. Excellent riders, Lance Armstrong (RadioShack), Christopher Horner (RadioShack), Bradley Wiggins (Sky), Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas), Sylvester Szmyd (Liquigas), Nicolas Roche (AG2R), Matthew Lloyd (Omega Pharma-Lotto), Kanstantsin Siutsou (HTC-Columbia), Steve Morabito (BMC), Carlos Barredo (QuickStep), Rui da Costa (Caisse d'Epargne), Jose Gutierrez (Caisse d'Epargne), Amael Moinard (Cofidis), Egoi Martinez (Euskaltel), Gorka Verdugo (Euskaltel) and Eros Capecchi (Footon-Servetto). I know every rider in the break, they are good, or good enough. Except Eros Cappechi whom I have never heard of. It seemed a serious break, with riders who wanted to win the stage. In fact, in the end, the break won again. How many times now? It is just not normal.

What was even more interesting were the TWO groups following, one containing the maillot jaune. That group was following the break for many kilometres, keeping them less than 25 seconds in front. In that rather large group were most of the favourites, as it should be. But behind this second group, the MJ group, but not by much, was another group containing some genuine contenders, who for some reason, had been dropped, presumably on Peyresourde. Guys like Gesink, Wiggins and Basso, others that slip my mind, were in that group behind. In other words there were three interesting groups, trying to both escape from each other and catch each other. Eventually the third group joined the second group to make up the MJ peloton, and the first escape group got eaten up. Very soon after, nine guys eventually got away after many k of racing. It was from the nine that the group of five which contested the final sprint was made. In other words, once again, the break stayed away for way over 150k.

I had all kinds of fantasy finishing scenarios involving the older guys, Sastre, Moreau and Armstrong, two of which were riding their last Tour. Moreau, for goodness sake, has decided he might win the mountains jersey!! So he will be on the attack tomorrow from the start. Basically Moreau has to win the stage and earn lots of points on loads of climbs, especially the last. I doubt he will do it. So we will in fact, after all that, end up with the maillot à pois on the shoulders of a virtually unknown French rider, not a climber, who wins one race a year if he is lucky. Somehow this hints to me that no serious climber cares two hoots about the jersey. It is without value. In any case, I did enjoy watching that process of 'choosing the right break', and letting it go. You may have noticed that in the final break there were two Caisse riders and two Shack riders. Still the team classification that they are fighting over. I understand that this has some advertising value in the USA. “Best team in the Tour”. The first three riders of both Caisse and Shack finished in the same time, four in the escape and two in the peloton. No time differences, so the standings remain the same.
1 Team Radioshack 235:24:46
2 Caisse d'Epargne 0:04:27

Nobody rode very hard during this stage, neither the break nor the peloton. It was a lot of climbing and I am sure any of us would have been happy to NOT ride fast. But they are bike racers and it does get a little bit annoying that they waste so many perfectly good mountains where they could race instead of pass through. After that first exciting bit where the breaks were formed, nothing much else happened. Loads of riders would be dropped on a climb and then loads of riders would get back on during the descent. Slowly fewer and fewer returned to the group, but there were still dozens on the last climb and the peloton that went through the finish was 50 strong. The competitors have neutralised themselves so much now that everyone on earth knows that Andy Schleck has to attack tomorrow. No surprise. Definitely. The other three on top of the GC all do time trials well, better than Schleck, so they think they can defend their position. So many days of good racing in lovely settings have been wasted by one thing or another. Today it was simple, no one attacked. Except the escapees. Schleck will lose the race, in fact, maybe even not make the podium if he does not attack. He has to take time out of Contador, he has to attack him somewhere, and gain two minutes before the ITT. Unless … Andy has learned to time trial without anyone noticing.

As a side note, Lance seemed to be trying to win the stage today, to go out in a blaze of glory. He came pretty close, was in all the versions of the break, including the one that succeeded. He kept the break going on more than one occasion by attacking, slimming it down a bit. In the sprint, he was clearly trying, but he is just too tired or is not a sprinter. He got beat easily by Pineau. I also found out that sometimes Lance has more greyish socks than black. Apparently the sock colour varies.

I was very impressed with Fignon's knowledge today. He seemed to now every curve of every col, and also a lot about public development policy toward the area. I loved his descriptions of the cols, including one the Tour has never taken that he thinks if totally excellent. Col de la Courade is one possibility and Col de Sarrat de Gaye is another for this mystery unknown but superb ride. I heard him name it only once, so I can't remember. So next time you are riding in the area, try those two cols which nobody ever tries. Fignon says it is gorgeous and gets overlooked because of the road straight up the Tourmalet. Just after St. Marie. He owns a hotel and training centre in the Pyrenees, so he has ridden or driven all these roads even more than any non-regional, ex-racing cyclist in France. Or keen cyclo tourist.

Schleck looked troubled today, mostly ill at ease. Looking about, wandering back to the car, like a kid who was told to stay behind Contador, but who really wanted to attack.

They ride 100kph through these little villages, the kinds with a road that goes through a kind of tunnel between buildings. With people all over the place. Really impressive. When there are accidents in the Tour, and there usually are, you can easily see why. Millions of spectators on the side of the road, drunk, sober, knowing about cycling or not, on a leash or not, able to judge speeds and distances of professional cyclist or not. It really is odd there are not more accidents, as far I can see. It is like the Tour is protected by something. For example, think of all the potential loose dogs on the route of the Tour. If there is only one that actually touches the peloton, its odd.

Right then, what else. Thor took back the green jersey by staying with the MJ peloton and nipping out to win the tenth place points in the sprint. Not big time, but the rules dictate what he gets. Same for the spotted jersey. Moreau seems seriously interested in taking it. So he has to attack tomorrow. Last points on offer. Charteau has to keep up with him. I have to say that this climbers' jersey race is one I have not warmed to throughout the Tour. I will watch tomorrow though. No other jersey changes, except the green.

Speaking of Thor, at one point on a climb he attacked. I looked desperately in my route maps to see why he was attacking, but the sprint points were two climbs away, so that made no sense. During an interview, he was asked about this 'escape' and he said that they peloton was gong a bit slow and he preferred to climb at his own rhythm, which was normally a bit faster. This is Hushovd. Big guy. That is how slow they were going today. Funny day.

Vive le velo.

2010-07-19T23:16:00.001+02:00

Stage 15 19-7-10

More racing today than yesterday, but with big controversy. It seems like every day there is some great moral action to debate, some doubt as to who acted properly and cleanly. Good for the media stories, but sometimes overshadows the actual racing. In the end, Thomas Voeckler won the stage after attacking on the last climb from what was left of the escape. Bravo Thomas! Once again, the escape succeeded, as the first through sixth places, and seven of the top ten came from the escape. I wonder if there are so many stages where 'the escape' won in a normal Tour. Somehow my impression is that if one or two escapes succeed in a Tour that is more normal. Another abnormal thing is the number of stage wins for the French. They have won a third of the stages so far. Not bad at all. It appears that the new methods of training and the slightly cleaner peloton are making a difference. On the other hand, let's look down the GC to see how the French are doing overall, not just on one day efforts, followed by resting in the big groups behind. We find that the highest placed French rider is 19th. Still some work to do, but seems like a change in the air. I am totally pleased the Thomas won the stage.

Controversy was about what happened when Schleck attacked and threw his chain off. On my cycling forums it is a big polemic Nearly all the pros and commentators on French TV thought everyone behaved fine. It was a 'race incident' like a puncture, pulling a foot out of the pedal, breaking a chain or derailleur, or whatever. His chain jumped. Finest components on earth, ace mechanic cleaning and adjusting every night, and this happens. Certainly not Andy's fault, unless he had failed to changed up or down before the attack and did it under pressure (amateur's mistake, I do it all the time). Some people suggest he made a boo boo. My view is simple, Contador could not have looked down at Andy's bike, analysed all the components, made a decision to slow down, while he was accelerating past (swerving past Andy to avoid him) at full speed on a mountain climb. I watched and reckon he had maybe one second to see and evaluate as he swept past. No way he should have slowed or stopped. He is not a cyclo-tourist checking of someone has a puncture and needs help. Its a race! Later when he might have found out the problem, maybe, by earphone, it was a little late to stop and he was with guys who were in third and fourth position. It is not like he saw Andy stop, THEN attacked, he was already under way. If Andy had crashed, that is something and maybe waiting was in order, but you don't wait for a puncture (Evans lost the Vuelta with a puncture last year) or a mechanical incident. You don't.

Others think that Alberto definitely knew the problem as he rode by, definitely should have stopped or slowed, should have told the others with him to slow or stop, and demonstrated his lack of class by carrying on. He should have waited and started the race again. Maybe.

Have yet to read one person who is not happy with Voeckler's stage win. He has managed to please nearly everyone in the whole cycling world. Everyone likes him and his style of riding, although it is not pretty. He also has a decent palmares too. When he talks, and can he talk or what, he does not speak banalities or talk nonsense or beat his own drum. Not like others I have already named. He does take full credit for doing well even though he says he is not a great rider, and does not have great physical means. He is somewhat modest and a decent, while giving plenty of credit to his team and bosses. He come across really well. We love wee Thomas.

Contador looked good today, Andy looked a little stiff. My wife said Andy looked that way and Thierry Adam said that about Alberto. I agree with them both. When Andy attacks tomorrow or the next day, we shall see who is best.

My wife says that Andy turns around and looks behind way too much, so he gets tired and gets stiff. I added that he is probably looking for his brother. My wife also said that when the biggest event of the day, the most discussed problem, is someone's chain coming off …. what kind of race is that? My wife often has excellent points.

As for changes in the top twenty from yesterday. Today we had the same fine adjustments, no one going too much higher, no one too much lower. But I am not keeping track from two days ago with a curve for each rider. I am just trying to give you an idea BOTH that something changes every day, and that not much changes on most days, after the general form of the GC is sorted. Schleck and Contador changed places, but now there is eight seconds between. There are only two days left for Schleck to make his move. And unlike the attack today, the serious attack has to happen way earlier on a climb. He can't leave it so late. Sanchez and Menchov are now only two minutes from third place, they gained half a minute. If they keep doing that, if Schleck does not do the deed and take MORE time out of them, not less, they can both time trial better than Schleck and might even push him off the podium. Maybe. Gesink and Levi dropped a half minute, but are still in fifth and sixth. Instead of winning the stage as I had predicted, Rodriguez lost another minute. LL Sanchez dropped from ninth to 12th and Basso from tenth to 14th. Vino on the other and moved into the top ten at ninth, from 11th. Hesjedal, Kloden and Sastre moved up a couple of places, and Kreuziger one. The big losers of the day were Wiggins and Evans, who lost five and three places respectively and are no longer in the top twenty. No idea what is happening with Evans' injury. Wiggins is just drifting off the pace, and recognises he just did not have the form this year, and now knows he is not going to do well. On the other hand, I would expect he nurtures, perhaps foolishly, hopes in the final Time Trial, the day before the end of the Tour in Paris.

Jalabert was interviewed extensively on the main news programme in France. He said he examined the video carefully and thought Contador's behaviour was impeccable. He was not that happy about the yobbos who booed him at the awards ceremony, but what can you do with ignoramuses. I agree with Jalabert, although it is a shame the chain jumped.

None of the other jerseys changed hands, but Voeckler, due to his escape today over a few hills and because he got over the last one first, moved from nowhere to fourth in the mountains jersey. I am still waiting for the polka dot jersey to go on the back of someone who is a climber, but I might still be waiting on Thursday night when the battle will be over. There are real climbers massing behind the not so real climbers, waiting to take over the jersey. But they might not make it. Only two more days of climbing, and for most of the real climbers, the last climb is the only one that matters. For the mountain jersey 'competitors', the previous smaller climbs are the ones that matter since none of the first three riders in the competition can stay with the real climbers when the real climbers start to motor.

I noticed for the first time that Voeckler has some cool shoes, when you take into account all the sides, they are blue, white and red, to match his French champions jersey.

So we wait until tomorrow for more news on who might win the Tour, but don't expect a final verdict until Thursday evening. Although there still might be some doubt if Alberto has lost a couple of minutes of Schleck, which could always happen. If Schleck does not attack tomorrow or Thursday, the Tour is over. So there is unlikely to be any element of surprise. This is apparently Riis' idea of strategy.

No time for more tonight, but one or two of these stories will run and run. This Tour has many intriguing aspects, not least who places where on the GC.

I like the route tomorrow, I have ridden it, but stayed overnight along the way.

Vive le Velo.

2010-07-18T23:36:00.002+02:00

Stage 14 18-7-10

First the good things. There were some mysterious goings on with the two top men on the last climb. I still don't get them fully, and I love uncertainty. A relatively obscure but competent French rider won the stage, Christophe Riblon, whom I never thought I would 'add to my dictionary' for spelling correction. He won by simply carrying on and carrying on. So four stages now for the French, not quite up to their very best, but a Tour which they can all be proud of. Especially the cheerleader on France 2, Thierry Adam. The scenery was all right, not the awesome valleys we will see shortly, but the kind of countryside you remember, and want to go back to on holiday. It really is a wonderful chain of mountains, with something for everyone. Armstrong lost even more time today and is not even trying. Although I am not sure that is a good thing, maybe he will treat us to a huge effort one of these days. He also was very well behaved and very mellow during the interview on France 2. Until Landis and LeMond got mentioned, but even then he just paraded his line and then they changed the question. There was a bit of a battle for third place, with Sanchez and Menchov shadowing each other and even making the odd attack. Look for Sanchez to gain some time on the descent tomorrow, and to do a better ITT later. But the race is not over yet, there are plenty of guys within a couple of minutes. We saw a fine display of Astana strength today, especially Vino, who did all he could, in spite of his exertions. There seemed to be fewer jerks with stupid costumes or fat bellies running alongside the riders. Maybe they are all hiding on the Tourmalet. Fignon, usually pretty hard to fool, said he had thought of all the scenarios he could for this stage, but failed to think of the one that happened. I think he thought there would be a bit more action. Maybe a minor battle between the two big guns. In any case, a stage which is a surprise for him must have some good sides. We continue to like the uncertainty that makes this a pretty good Tour. A BIG surprise would make a great one. And lest's not forget … the escape won! Always a little cause for celebration.

As for the bad things, well not much happened. The break got away and by the end of the stage there was one guy left, and he won. But in the end he won because the leaders messed about and just did not try very hard on the last climb. They were slightly scattered at the very end, but even so, they did not really try to catch Riblon or they would have. Another stage gifted to a French breakaway by a peloton not really on full gas. Good to see Sanchez and Menchov racing for third, but what about the others? Maybe it was a hard stage and they were all tired, even though they have been resting for two days at least. I don't really think that the two leaders of the GC should be slowing down so much on the last climb. It feels slightly disgraceful, a bit disrespectful and as if they don't know what to do next. On the other hand, by now Schleck seems to be rather confused. He still might win because he can climb better, but we have not seen this yet.

The jerseys stayed the same. The GC stayed the same. Wiggins lost time. Lance lost more and is not really making much of an effort. Hope they each do something to keep the Tour from being a total flop for themselves. Especially Wiggins. It would be nice to see him up there one day with the leaders, or failing that, a victory in the ITT would be good for morale. In any case, Wiggo is NOT the British guy who will win the Tour for the Sky team, that is clear. With Thomas showing that, at present, he cannot climb well, it is not crystal clear who that rider might be. Still, Sky have four years and about 60 million euros to spend on the quest. See below for the full story on who lost what.

Just a quick quote from another blog, in reference to what I said the other day about the team classification and the 'correct' composition of a break before it is permitted to leave by al lthe big teams. 'A break of 12 riders escaped early on in the stage, but its composition didn’t suit the RadioShack team and it was brought back. Five of its original members managed to reassert themselves though and escaped once more, with the RadioShack team on the front of the bunch. They were: Geraint Thomas (Team Sky), Dave Zabriskie (Garmin-Transitions), Amaël Moinard (Cofidis), Pavel Brutt (Katusha) and Jose Ivan Gutierrez (Caisse d’Epargne).

The RadioShack team was still unwilling to let Gutierrez go clear, as he threatened the American team’s lead in the team classification. The red and grey team kept the peloton no more than 20 seconds behind the group for some time so the Spaniard decided to drop back, leaving just the four riders ahead. A counterattack of five riders bridged across soon afterwards, made up of Benoît Vaugrenard (Française des Jeux), Stephane Augé (Cofidis), Christophe Riblon (AG2R-La Mondiale), Pierre Rolland (Bbox Bouyges Telecom) and Jurgen Van de Walle (Quick Step); there were now nine up front.'

A quick analysis of the top twenty shows some changes, but not too significant. But it does show that a day makes a difference. Today, not THAT much difference, as there was not so much hard racing, but there will be BIG differences in days to come. In the actual top ten, hardly anyone changed. Levi went down one position and Gesink took his place in sixth. Kreuziger dropped to twelfth and Basso moved up one place to enter the top ten. Other than that, everything was exactly the same as yesterday. Some time changes, but nothing to spend time looking for. As for as the second ten, Rogers was the big loser, out of the top twenty totally, dropping nine places to 26th. Lovkvist, the Sky rider, moved up three places, as the 'big winner' of the day. And Wiggo dropping 2 places, Kloden dropping three and Evans dropping one place were the other losers of the day. When you think this was meant to be a hard stage, we can see that the shape of the top twenty remains pretty well formed by now. Although we can always hope there will be a big change and some totally unexpected racing in the near future. You might ask if I can explain all those changes, but even if I could, I would not. But at least you can see that not too much change goes on on the average stage.

That descent tomorrow should be very good indeed. No doubt Samu Sanchez will show us how it is done. Although I might go for Rodriguez. I doubt if either of the top guys will take a chance on any kind of seriously fast descent. At least we will get an idea who can descend fast and in a proper way.

Do take a look tomorrow. I got in touch with an old pal today, who just bought a barn north of St. Girons. The Tour goes right past the road to their hamlet tomorrow.

2010-07-17T23:47:00.002+02:00

Stage 13 17-7-10

Another, and perhaps the last, transition stage. From now on, nothing is easy, although the stage into Bordeaux might be a bit easier for most teams, and certainly the very last stage is the easiest of all. But from now on, there will be many minutes lost and won by nearly everyone. The GC should change a good deal, with at least three or four people entering and leaving the top ten. Today, however, nothing much happened, except that the green jersey changed hands again (Pettachi today), and Vinokourov won the stage that some thought he should have won yesterday. He attacked on the last hill, only a few kilometres from the end, raced away from everyone, including the peloton. No one could catch him today. The sprint for the green jersey points was won by Cavendish, without his last lead-out man. Cav did not, however, win his fourth stage, as his team and the others were not strong enough or well enough organised to catch Vino. No changes in the top ten on GC, the spotted mountain jersey or the white jersey for best young rider. Yellow jersey still on Schleck's shoulders.

This green jersey race is still wide open. It is hard to see how Cavendish can win it, assuming that he wins both sprint stages that are left, and assuming that one or the other of Hushovd and Pettachi fish very close behind him, there is no way he can actually gain enough on the two of them. If they both ride badly and finish seventh or eighth on both stages, then by winning Cavendish can take the jersey. But I think he lost it many stages ago, the day he just gave up before the end. We shall see. By the way, it is important to note that Cav won the mass sprint for second place, WITHOUT his leadout man. So those who thought he was useless without Renshaw must have to re-think a little.

1 Alessandro Petacchi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 187 pts
2 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Cervelo Test Team 185
3 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Team HTC - Columbia 162

I took a long nap today, getting ready for tomorrow and the following days, when I will have to be on the alert, at my post, for much longer. I want to see those mountains, even if the racing is slow for the first few climbs. I want to see the various climbs and mountains unfold in front of me. And I also want to see who takes the climbers' jersey from the fakes that currently have it. Having climbed the Tourmalet from one side, I shall be very interested in that stage. I should say stages, as they climb the Tourmalet from both sides, and one stage ends at the top.

The escape was a good one, Not really enough riders to succeed, but the three that were in it were quality riders. Flecha, Chavanel and Fedrigo could probably have done a bit better, but they knew from the outset it was futile, or at least after 50k. It was clear that the sprinters' teams wanted to have another go at points for the green jersey, and so they all co-operated to limit the gap. Then at the end, they just swept (nearly all of them) up. The fact that Vino got away from them all on the last small hill was actually hard to believe. But he is a very strong rider, full of the winning mentality. I still remember his victory on the Champs Elysées when he just put it in high gear and rode like a maniac for the last kilometre and no one could catch him. He can do that. We do hope he is not doping as before, but he is known for this kind of riding. No one is deeply surprised, only impressed that he could pull it off. It should be mentioned that when Vino attacked, Contador moved to the front and slowed down the pursuit, perhaps just enough seconds to give the stage to Vino. Check out the video. Good teamwork.

A word on the team competition, which I have completely ignored. The competition for the 'best team' is decided for one day, as well as for the whole Tour. The calculation for the day is made by adding up the time of the first three riders on every team. Or it was a few years ago, I have not checked if the rules have changed. Then each day's total is added to the overall total. The team with the least time for its best three riders each day, added up over the Tour, wins the prize. The other day, for example, when Moreau sprinted for the mountains points that did not exist, there was a Radio Shack guy who followed him. I forget who it was, but I wondered why. The guy had nothing to do with the mountains jersey, none of the Shack riders do. Then I realised. No Caisse d'Epargne rider was to be let go without a Shack rider right behind him. The reason is that the two teams were first and second in the 'best team' competition. One rider who finishes way ahead of the others can be enough to change the standings. Today they are as follows.

1 Team Radioshack 189:31:13
2 Caisse d'Epargne 0:00:21
3 Rabobank 0:16:13
4 Astana 0:18:17

So if ever there is a mystery as to why a Shack rider follows a movement by a Caisse rider or vice versa, they are trying to make sure the minuscule difference does not change. The explanation is a bit hard to follow, but just remember they add up the times of the best three on each day. So you want to have three riders doing pretty well, rather than one rider winning the stage and the next two down in 20th place or lower, many minutes back. This prize is pretty incidental, but for Shack and Caisse, who have no chance at all in the GC, they at least can win this consolation prize. So watch for the two teams with red and black kit battling it out. It is almost certain that the Shack riders will do better than the Caisse riders in the last time trial.

Bring on the mountains. In fact, tomorrow, the second last climb is the hardest one, and immediately after it, with no respite, they start up the final climb. It is totally unlikely that no one will attack, and that no one will lose minutes on this stage. I am virtually certain that not only will one or both of 'the big two' attack on the climbs, but some of the top ten will also attack. Should be loads of fun to watch.

If you have never heard Alberto speak English, which I have not, he does Spanish in response to French on my stations, check out http://video.bicycling.com/video/2nd-Exclusive-Alberto-Contador

See you at the TV tomorrow. Maybe 20k before the Pailheres climb.

2010-07-16T23:27:00.002+02:00

Stage 11 16-7-10

A transition stage with a well-beloved, steep, short climb at the end, with a last k or so on an airport runway (always have found that odd). I got up a bit later, trying to throw off this cold, and missed not much. The escape was divided into two bits, and the peloton was slowly clawing back time on them both. Although the real chase had not begun. Fignon said the winner would NOT come from the escape, but the peloton. He was right. The right guy won the stage, although in my heart, I was sorry that there was not a way that Vino could have had the victory. Still, he will have other chances for glory, even in this Tour. It is a shame though. Rodriguez, excellent ride.

As for the 'psychological blow' of Contador's attack on Schleck, I figure it was no big deal. On the other hand, it came later in the race than Andy's late attack o Alberto earlier. The big stages start soon, so maybe it has a bit more weight that Andy's attack. Like a goal just before half time. I still think we have no idea if Andy can take a couple of minutes out of Alberto in the mountains. He has three stages to do it. It should be an excellent sporting spectacle in one of the finest arenas you could even have, the Pyrenees. Still, today Alberto did a nice little attack, and dropped Schleck, or at least Andy was forced to think about whether to bother. In any case, it has to be Andy who attacks later in the Tour. But that has always been the case. It was a bit of a surprise that Alberto attacked today. Small psychological blow. Still massive uncertainties.

I see that Thor got back his jersey. I am pleased for him. On the other hand, when the green jersey is awarded or earned and awarded by small points in sprints in between THE sprint, I find it a little bit less classy. Rules is rules. Same thing goes for the mountains jersey. It is being fought over by non-climbers trying to get a piece of glory by reading the rules and taking advantage of them in minute detail, rather than the just reward for the actual best climber. That is, the guy who actually climbs best. I am pretty sure that one or the other of the GC guys might take the polk dot jersey in the end. I hope so. And the white jersey is on the shoulders of Gesink, which is nice, but really it is with Schleck. Schleck as two now. Maybe he will do really well and end up woth hyoung, polka dot, green and yellow all at the same time. It is possible.

The commentators on French TV were forced, by some kind of pressure, to apologise for mocking Moreau yesterday when he sprinted for mountain points that were not there. Apparently Moreau might have been misinformed by headquarters. Or something. Still, Fignon apparently apologised. My wife heard that, I didn't. Apparently Moreau's feelings were hurt. I still have not heard him talking about it. Time for Christophe to quit the game. When he makes a basic mistake and others say it is a basic mistake, and he has his feelings hurt because people said he made a basic mistake … time to stop. He blew it.

Fignon has also aligned himself with the side that says that Renshaw's acts, while spectacular and visible, were really not that dangerous. Renshaw should not have been excluded. L'Equipe on the other hand had several articles sharing the view that the punishment was right, the crime was a big deal. This will run for some time. Unless Cav wins both remaining flat stages. That would be cool. I am now FOR him until the end of the Tour.

I thought today would be three races in one, which is a quite amusing type of stage. In it, the four at the front would have fought it out for the stage win. Then peloton catching or not catching the other fourteen or whatever, as they struggled up the hill, would have been another. Then the final sprint for victory. We sort of had that, in the sense that it was not crystal clear that Rodriguez and Contador ('the peloton') would have caught Vino, although they did. If Vino had won then the break would have 'succeeded'. I did want it to work out that Vino would win, but you can see easily why Contador had to pass him. If only Vino had been twenty more seconds up the road, maybe ten. Right stage victor too. If I were Contador I would NEVER have beaten Rodriguez no matter what. Not sure he could, but still, he did the right thing. Anyway there was enough racing in the last few minutes, although not during most of the stage. Tomorrow even more chance a successful breakaway as none of the big guns or their teams want to work hard before the Pyrenees on Sunday.

Did you noticed we passed yet another Col de la Pierre Plantee? Google the name sometime. I wonder how many there are in France. Less than Pont du Diable, but quite a few. More than Col de l'Homme Mort.

Today they had some lovely easy descents, dry roads, new surfaces, not many tight curves … they got up to more than 100kph. I think that is really fast. I never go more than 65kph.

Sad to see Farrar out of it. No idea why yet.

Maybe this is going to be shorter than I thought. It was a good finish, but Contador just rode away from everyone except Rodriguez, although not by that much. What is there to say? Another stage a bit like that tomorrow, except not climb at the end, so an escape? I am in the middle of a good book as well, so there is no need to write when I have nothing to say. Mind you I surely would have liked to have that downpour they had at Mende, just after the finish. It was still 32 degrees and totally dry when I started writing this, after the post Tour shows. They now show the history segment done by Jean Paul Olivier right at the end of the after Tour show. All a bit more interesting that Velo Club was.

Bring on the mountains.

2010-07-15T22:38:00.004+02:00

Stage 11 14-7-10

Transition stage today. That means that nothing much happens, and that most of the peloton take it easy while they get ready for some hard work ahead. Often on these stages, depending on the mood and the terrain, a breakaway can get going, and maybe even stay away. Not the case today. Although they climbed up a wee hill about a third of the way into the stage, the rest was more or less downhill and the sprinters' teams were not going to let this one go. The sprinters have only two more chances after this, Bordeaux and Paris, so the teams were not interested in wasting this opportunity. They more or less toyed with the escape, keeping them one or two minutes ahead, the work at the front being shared by several teams, Garmin, HTC, Cervelo, Lampre and anyone else who had a sprinter ready to win. Nice easy stage. Much of it along a valley I know a bit, the Drome, where a friend has an organic farm. Reminds me, I have not chatted with him for yonks. Must do it. Soon. I looked for the curve in the river where his family live, but failed to find it.

In the end, it was a sprint, a mass sprint, won by Cavendish, but full of controversy. There is always a bit of elbowing, pushing, leaning, moving across lines of sprinting (sprints are meant to be on straight lines), 'closing the door' (cutting people off), lead-out men slowing down who 'accidentally block other sprinters, and it is always up to the commissars to decide if the rules have been broken. I don't even know where they are written down, but they certainly don't cover all the cases. A bit like fouls in football or rugby, a lot is left to the judges or referees. Sprinters are relegated to last place for infractions, and in rare cases they are kicked off the Tour. Usually they are kicked off when they do something illegal, but also blatant, naughty and showing a bad image to the public. So in 1997, Tom Steels was booted off for throwing a water bottle at another sprinter. But complete banishment is rare. Today it happened. It was, in fact, the main news of the day, although Pettachi donned the green jersey for finishing second, and Tyler Farrar finished third. Thor Hushovd continued his bad form and finished well behind. His inability to finish in the top three or four has probably made his chances for the green jersey much worse than they seemed to be several stages ago. I really thought he would do better this year, but he has just not been up to the job. On the other hand, no one dreamed Pettachi would win it, although he has yet to pass through the Pyrenees. Mind you, I am surprised he even lasted through the Alps, so who can tell.

So what happened in the sprint? To see for yourself, you can check it out, stop the clip study it. http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/1040 It started when Julian Dean, the last lead-out man for Tyler Farrar reached the level of Mark Renshaw, the last lead-out man for Mark Cavendish. Dean stuck out his elbow and moved over a bit, trying to force Renshaw into the boards on the left side, and away from Cavendish who was following his wheel. He was trying to break up the HTC train, a strategy that worked this Tour on more than one occasion. This happens all the time in sprinting, and the response is to lean back and not let yourself be moved. All this at 75 kph. The difference here is that as well as leaning back, Renshaw tapped, or whacked, his helmet against Dean, twice. Then very quickly, he did it once more. This had the desired effect and Dean stopped pushing him. Soon after, Cavendish saw an opening and thought, I am out of here. He won by sprinting way further than usual, 375 metres instead of 200. Renshaw then drifted away, in doing so he slightly blocked Farrar, who had picked the wrong side of Cavendish to go around. All of this is totally normal and would not have been sanctioned in any way, EXCEPT the head-butting was a little bit obvious, tasteless, and probably deemed to be 'bringing the sport into disrepute'. It WAS a little gross actually. The commissars, reviewing the film, decided not just to relegate Renshaw to last place, the normal 'yellow card' punishment. They gave him red, and kicked him right out of the Tour. There will be many debates about this. My view is that it was a harsh punishment, and relegation to last place,with a big fine, would have been enough. No punishment was given to Dean, nor to Cavendish. Voila, that is the story. You can review it yourself. The effect of this will be that HTC will have to review their usual plans for a lead out train, probably giving the last man job to Bernard Eisel. But overall it will mean that Cavendish will be slightly handicapped, and might not win another stage. He, on the other hand, will be trying to prove he can win in any case. Story to run for a few days, maybe longer.

Interview with Renshaw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-TJNg6rp8s
Interview with Cavendish http://www.youtube.com/user/ozcyclingdotcom
Interview with Farrar (mentioning the second irregularity, but not the one Renshaw was punished for) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7t1uapa7jo
Cavendish being told (he is a bit stunned, but kept his mouth shut) http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza/videozone/MG_Tour/MG_verslagen_nieuws/1.826673
Interview with Aldag, Cav's manager
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/video/15072010/58/aldag-cav-win-renshaw.html

Otherwise, there were changes, but not terribly important. Pettachi got the green jersey, mainly due his consistently excellent sprinting this year, but also due to the failure of Hushovd to finish in the top three, even if he cannot win a given sprint. Hushovd has really been quite ineffective during this Tour, in the actual sprints, being beaten by second rate sprinters often enough. I have to add that the previously unknown Sebastian Turgot did NOT fish sixth as he has four times in a row, but finished respectably nevertheless. France has found a new sprint hope! Pineau added a point to his trivial total of points for the spotted jersey. I still find it embarrassing that he has the jersey, and that the next two riders, both French, also are not real climbers. It would be different if someone like Le Mevel or Gadret were wearing it, as they actually can climb. I am desperately hoping that someone will take the jersey away before Paris. The funny thing is that I have never heard in the interviews any modesty on the part of Pineau ('I am just lucky' and 'keeping it warm' for someone else) nor any sense on the part of French commentators that the whole thing is without honour and a joke. It should be noted that there are, even in the next few mountainous stages, sprint points available that might be fought for by Pettachi and Hushovd. Looks like Cav is not so interested. Andy keeps both the yellow and the white jerseys. It was a transition stage, we could expect no big changes. The GC remains the same.

Green jersey standings.

1 Alessandro Petacchi (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 161 pts
2 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Cervelo Test Team 157
3 Robbie McEwen (Aus) Team Katusha 138
4 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Team HTC - Columbia 132

There was another issue today. I have not got to the bottom of it, but it involves one or more teams not going to sign in before starting the race. Normally, each rider walks up to a big podium in full view of all the punters, and is introduced by Daniel Mangeas, the 'voice of the Tour'. He recites their honours and tells a bit about them as they sign a big register. Everybody claps and cheers and maybe catches one or two of them for an autograph or a photo. Part of the 'tradition of the Tour'. If they don't sign in, they are fined. Its like taking attendance at school. Today someone stayed in their bus, hung loose, relaxed, avoided the crowds and did not make themselves visible to the punters. This annoyed the French commentators for sure, and clearly the ASO organisers as well. Some felt this was part of the star mentality, hiding behind smoked glass and refusing to follow protocol. I don't really care much, but it was apparently some kind of big deal.

So tomorrow one of my favourite areas of France (I guess I have more than one), as they head into Lozere, and the finish outside Mende. It is a three k pretty steep climb, and some riders are going to lose many seconds. I doubt that the big guns will ride up in a group. Certainly other riders will attack for the stage victory, so at least the last few minutes should be full of action and the previous hour full of gorgeous scenery.

Vive le velo.

2010-07-14T22:29:00.001+02:00

Stage 10 14-7-10

I am not absolutely sure about this, since I missed parts of many stages in the last ten days. But I reckon the scenery today was absolutely stunning. Alps are nice enough, but they are too big, too developed, too rocky and generally both too inhuman and too human. This area seems a lovely mix. Just enough awesomeness to keep your mouth open, and plenty of settlements of a less developed sort that help you be friendly to the area and sympathetic to its history. One of my favourite areas of France for sure. Good thing too, as the race was a little bit slow today. So slow they got into Gap about forty five minutes late, having slowly cruised all day long. The break that got away also cruised all day. So for the most part, nothing happened to disturb any of the standings and any of the jerseys. True, there was a bit of race for points in the green jersey competition, but nothing that makes a big difference. Although come the end, maybe these points will be a big deal. True, Nicolas Roche managed to do a pre planned attack to gain a few places in the standings. He is now 13th instead of 17th and only 6.23 back instead of 7.44. Good to see guys like him racing to gain a few places, as it must mean he still cares about being in the top ten and might do some attacking in the next days. Radio Shack got their first victory in their Tour history (this year is their first), with Serge Paulinho, the Portuguese who came our attention when he got a silver medal in the 2004 Olympic road race. I especially liked the descent into Gap, which is pretty scary. It was there, and they have memorialised the location, that Beloki had his career ending crash (he kept riding, but did nothing after that crash) and Lance did his equally famous cross country run. Must go to that area on a bike holiday, while I can still climb the hilly bits.

Got lucky today and was able to watch the very first 45 minutes of the race, that exceptional time when the peloton was going like blazes, and various rides are shooting off the front trying to establish the 'break of the day'. Many times they try, and although sometimes the first try works, most likely it takes some time until the right combination is allowed to go off. The decision making process of the peloton, which teams are willing to ride to bring back a break, which riders are the ones allowed to get away, and that whole process is fascinating. Eventually a break gets away because riders do not stop trying to do the job. After all, like today, a stage victory could be at stake. And a stage victory in the Tour makes a career, not matter how it is achieved. The successful break usually consists of riders way down on the GC, who are not harmful to anyone, who do not threaten any team. If you ever get a chance, do watch those first few kilometres. It does not matter much in the General Classification, of course, but it is rather important part of the race. If you keep watching long enough you get to see a 'royal escape'. Like a royal flush, this is rare. It consists of guys who ARE important in the GC, who have somehow escaped the peloton and also escaped some of their competitors in the GC. Now THAT kind of escape gets really interesting, almost exciting. It can change the face of the race. In some small way, the Contador/Schleck escape on the Madeleine was like that.

Small gift for some of us, Laurent Fignon is gong to be commentating nearly every day until the end. His voice is much better. And although neither my wife nor I are fond of his sense of humour, he is the sole commentator who is telling it straight. He is not trying to advertise the event and convince us that there is racing when there is not.

A friend of mine rang up and thought I had suggested that someone else might win, other than Alberto or Andy. Of course, 'if something happens' one or both can be out of the race in one day. And certainly if somehow one of the other dozen riders below them succeeds in making a huge escape, things can change. But it is very unlikely that the entire might of Astana and SaxoBank would let anyone escape. And it is highly unlikely that one of them won't win the Tour. Just so you know I agree with nearly everyone else on that question. But like everyone else, I have no idea which one it will be. Contador merely has to stick with Andy all the way to win. The reason is that the 52k time trial the second last day of the Tour is pretty much certain to be where Alberto can gain up to two minutes on Andy. Whoever is wearing the yellow jersey will have motivation, but so will the one who COULD wear it after the TT. Either way they will both be racing like crazy men. But if Andy actually beats Alberto in the TT, it will be one of the greatest surprises in the history of the Tour. In fact, if he loses less than two minutes Andy will be doing very well indeed. So Andy has to attack in the Pyrenees. Alberto has to stick with him, or better yet, attack himself. No one knows who will do what and when. Lovely. Uncertainty.

I still enjoy the huge displays that various rural folks make by the side of the road. There was a great one today with vast posters of cycling greats, the giants of the road. I thought how moving they were, until the end. Then somehow they put up naughty seaside post card type nudes or partially bared bums of women. Tacky, I thought. But genuinely expressive of the rural mentality I guess. Clearly no one in that town thought it was tacky at all.

We got a long analysis of the Katusha team's origins from Fignon,who apparently knows something about it. He said the guy who runs Itera, the huge Russian gas company, used to be a superb track rider and still rides a lot. He was keen, and put together the consortium of sponsors with the help of Putin, who named the team. It is a huge programme of cycling development as well as the team. They advertise that on their bus. As far as I am concerned a team named after a missile, or rather a slightly sophisticated artillery shell (Google it) is a tacky name. Even if they pretend it is 'just a girl's name' in Russia (which it is).

Christophe Moreau is third in the mountains competition. Not THAT far behind. So when the peloton got to the top of the second category climb at the end of the stage, he sprinted out of the group to get the points. The last climb of the day is double points, so he was especially keen. Sadly, there were already six guys who were in the break and a second category climb only awards points to the first six riders. So Moreau, riding his thirteenth Tour (or whatever), in his last year, to crown his career, sprinted for double zero points. He did not even know the rules. The entire peloton was probably snickering behind his back and he must be terribly embarrassed today. Fignon was quite harsh on him calling him unprofessional and a bad example to kids. Moreau is a prat, and I enjoyed watching him make a fool of himself. I didn't hear his explanation, but I would love to listen.

As for the finish, I watched the replay and noticed something. It was well known that Vasil was faster than Sergio. The Belorussian should have been the first man from his country to win a stage in the Tour. Kiriyenko was in front, and kept turning his head to see where his rival was, as one does. The thing I noticed was that Paulinho waited until Kiriyenko turned his head to the front (so he couldn't see him) and at that exact moment, Sergio attacked. So Paulinho had a couple of pedal strokes, and nearly two bike lengths before Vasil saw him and could react. Such superb timing, the only way he could have won. Nice one for the Portuguese. Although honestly I fancied Kiriyenko since he and I share a name.

The next couple of stages might be for breakaways, although the sprinter's teams might like to change that. Especially tomorrow the sprinters might get a chance, as the race limbs one hill and then goes downhill the rest of the day. While I don't know most of the route, I can say that the bit at the end, down the valley which has Die in it, is rather lovely.

Good night.

2010-07-13T22:20:00.001+02:00

Stage 9 13-7-10

Good stage! I was moaning a bit about the lack of attacking early on, boring my wife silly. It is true it was a pretty mild beginning. Absolutely wonderful mountains, but not a lot of racing. In fact a break got away, and the winner of the stage came from this break. Another French win, this time Sandy Casar from Marc Madiot's FDJ team. The French cannot be upset about stage wins this year, even though they seem to be a bit short of GC contenders. But on the last climb, as is most often the case in the Modern Tour, there was finally a brutal acceleration. It looked like with or without serious discussion, the Astana and Saxobank teams had decided to ride hard and see whom they could drop. Fignon called this very early in the race, with his usual astute eye for what is happening. We had, once again, that sad but very appealing sight of riders dropping off the back, some of them with their Tour in tatters. Certainly dreams of podium finishes shattered. It was a good stage.

It would fair to say that nearly everyone lost time on the lead duo, Schleck and Contador. They had a bit of a mano a mano, with Schleck attacking at least three times, but Contador following each attack. It became clear that Andy could not drop Alberto, and so they made a deal to ride together and distance all their competitors. Samuel Sanchez kept coming back after each attack, but finally he too was distanced. Being a fearsome descender Sanchez almost got back on the descent, only ten seconds behind, but when they reached the short flat section at the end of the stage, it was never going to be easy for one guy to catch two. So while Sanchez lost fifty seconds, nevertheless he distanced several of his competitors and is now sitting on the podium. There is a long way to go. A long long way. Having said that, it look like the two strongest riders are Schleck and Contador. If neither of them drops the other before the long time trial in many days, it is clear that Contador will win the Tour. But that is maybe a big if. Watching them and their teams duel should be a bit of fun over the next few days.

The biggest loser of the day, the tragic figure of the last climb, was Cadel Evans. He lost 8 minutes, and the yellow jersey. He also lost any hope of getting on the podium this year. There could be any number of reasons for this, but the crash that injured his left elbow, and probably caused him serious pain and probably made it hard for him to pull on the bars might be the only explanation we really need. In any case, he was not alone today in losing time, just the most dramatic. Bradley Wiggins, along with Carlos Sastre and Michael Rogers, lost five minutes. One has to be cautious, about making a big deal out of this, as they are all within two minutes of the top ten, so the Tour is nowhere near over for them. Unless they are just not good enough, which, given that they lost time on other days, might be true. Basso and Kreuziger are now just outside the top ten at about five minutes from Schleck. Basso had a slightly better day, towing Lance up the hill for old times' sake, Kreuziger a worse one. I am quit sure that these two will have something to say in the Pyrenees. Both are good climbers and can work together well. Kreuziger can also do a mean TT. The lime green lads will be back. The two Rabobank riders are currently the very best duo of all. Although they lost two minutes, they managed to climb to fourth and fifth place. Menchov is a surprise, no one knew how fit he was. But without much shouting, he is up there with the best challengers. As for Gesink, he rode very well today and seems be fulfilling his promise. What each of these duos manage to concoct for a strategy might be very interesting indeed. Certainly if the challengers do not attack the top two, then the Tour is over, or rather it is between Andy and Alberto. We hope that riding cautiously for third, fifth or seventh place does not appeal too much to the teams like Liquigas and Rabobank, but that remains to be seen. Dutch supporters were apparently really annoyed at Leipheimer for not doing his share of the work n the Madeleine. Levi is a pretty well known wheel sucker. Nevertheless he kept up and solidified his place in the to ten. He got not help from Lance however, who is meant to be his teammate.

So the spoils go to those who attacked. And behind, the others grouped together and tried to stay in contact. I am a bit sad that Samuel Sanchez just missed, by ten seconds, getting back in touch with the two leaders of the Tour. His descending is beautiful. Schleck looked really wobbly, and everyone commented on it. He descends with his hand on the brake hoods, like I do. Very cautious. Having said that, Christophe Moreau, who was in the group of three with Contador reckons he is a good descender and he was having trouble keeping up with Schleck and noticed nothing bad about his descending. So I am not sure what to believe. Probably NOT Moreau, one of the world's great bullshitters and egotists.

One thing is clear. This Tour is far from over. I am assuming that neither Andy nor Alberto have a bad day, but they could. In addition, there are nine riders within five minutes of Schleck, four minutes from Contador and two minutes from third place. Given that today the gaps were two, three, four or even five minutes between groups, everyone one of those riders can hope to finish on the podium. Furthermore, four minutes total cover the second ten riders, so any of them could easily think they might finish in the top ten. While top ten does not seem glamourous compared to the podium, there ARE only three places on the podium and there are nearly two hundred riders who began the Tour. Top ten in the Tour is totally respectable and also very useful in contract negotiations. Let's remember that there are 22 teams, so half of them are guaranteed to NOT have a top ten rider. My point is not that Schleck and Contador have shown that they are very vulnerable. They have not. They have shown they are better than the other riders, so far. But in terms of racing, of attacks, of bold moves, there is plenty to race for, in addition to the duel at the top. Of the next four stages, two are relatively easy, but two are NOT. Then we get the three days of extreme climbing in the Pyrenees, followed by the time trial from Bordeaux (with one sprint stage in between). In other words, the really hard stuff is yet to come. And it has been pretty hard so far.

A couple of further observations. Brajkovic and Szmyd, two of the finest support climbers in the Liquigas and Astana teams, finished eight minutes down, riding with Cadel. I didn't see either of them in the front, and they can climb very well. So maybe they had a bad day, maybe they were taking it easy to do something tomorrow or in the near future.

Just a word or two on the jersey for the best climber, the polka dot jersey. Let me start with a quote from another blog. 'So the polka dot jersey isn't really the meilleur grimpeur. It's a the best climber of a specific group of guys with the ambition and permission to focus on the minor climbs of the Tour, with no regard to their fitness for other tasks. It's a guy who isn't a yellow jersey contender, and who isn't on a team with a yellow jersey contender who might need his help. It's a small, self-selecting goup of guys who can surely climb like the dickens, and whose pursuit of the King of the Mountains classification is a fun sideshow. They get to be King for a few days, and only wishing that the competition were something more prevents fans like me from getting behind this more enthusiastically.' This quote reminded me, as did the recent change of jersey from one French non-climber to another French non-climber. Certainly Pineau and Charteau can climb. But really this jersey is a very bad joke. If there were a one day race which had climbing in it, or if a stage ended at the top of a mountain, neither of these guys would be in the top twenty. No possibility. In fact, today, it was sad to see the polk dot jersey wearer just stop trying once the last climb began. Pineau had been let loose along with a number of other riders who were not threat to anyone about anything. He has accumulated points on climbs no one contested. In fact, hardly anyone has cared about this jersey in recent times. You can't blame these guys, the rules are the rules and for the last almost twenty years, beginning with Virenque, adequate climbers have been reading the rules and winning the competition. Recently they doubled the points on the last climb of a stage so that maybe the real climbers might get some points. And in the end maybe they will. Maybe the best climbers, who would certainly include Schleck and Contador, much less S. Sanchez, Rodriguez, Martinez (not much this year), Cunego, Gesink, Kreuziger, Basso, VdB and so forth, will end up ranking higher than Pineau and Charteau. But as I say, you can't blame them, only blame the rules and people who read them carefully. It bothers me, as the jersey for the best climber should be on the shoulders of … well … more or less the best climber.

Overall a very good stage, at least the last climb. I like how we are still learning about the Tour, nothing is yet obvious. This is the mark of a very good race. Uncertainty.

If you have read this far, you might like to know that since I started the blog, this is my sixtieth post.

2010-07-11T23:07:00.001+02:00

Stage 8 11-7-10

Gradually we are learning more about this Tour. Although we had a couple of slow days, there is a fair bit of action already, much more to come. On Tuesday, when we begin again after a rest day, there are some serious climbs, especially Col de Madeleine. Although there is a long descent before the finish. Plenty of action left. And a rest day well deserved for us all.

What did we learn today?
Bradley Wiggins is not in such great form when the road goes up, or at least not today.
Lance Armstrong will either quit the Tour, go for one glorious stage, or work as a domestic for Levi Leipheimer. His Tour is over, we won't see him riding again after the end of July.
The big shot riders still tend to ride up a hill together and no one much attacks … yet.
The scenery is so powerful in the mountains that you almost want to live there.
Chavanel is a nice guy and not a bad rider, but he can't keep up with the best.
The Astana team is not as bad as people have said.
Ivan Basso and Roman Kreuziger can follow the best up a not very steep slope, but can they attack.
The Tour is very much open and anyone who thinks they can predict the winner is a more confident commentator than I.
Predicting Gesink to win the stage was not a bad guess.
The young riders are taking over the GC. Behind them are even younger riders learning and getting ready. The Tour turns.

I suppose that might be pretty much all I have to say, so it could be a very short blog. I did want to mention how rude Thierry Adam is to Fignon in the commentary box, and how often he interrupts Fignon or just talks right over him. But most of you don't watch the coverage in French so I won't say anything.

When the road goes up, and riders are gradually shelled out the back, dropped mercilessly by the accelerations of the peloton or perhaps of one team, the minor tragedies of the Tour are enacted. I think it is beautiful, one of the finest moments of the Tour, or any stage race that climbs. It is part of racing, so there can be no reason to complain. But it is a minor sadness each time. When Bradley Wiggins got dropped I felt a bit bad for him. He has many days to race, and his Tour is far from over. Nevertheless, his entire season was built on this race, and seeing him slide back, and in fact, slide right off the podium was drenched with sadness or even a bit of pity. He may come back, he may make the top ten, but when in fact there were a dozen or so riders who were NOT dropped at all, it was a bit of a shame. It WAS very HOT.

When it was obvious that Lance was dropped and he was not going to come back, I felt much better. I have never really liked the guy or his tactics, while still respecting his overall athletic ability. I saw the young guy, Brajkovic, riding alongside him. No real pain on the young guy's face, but age and recognition of the end leaking from Lance's face. The young guy should have been able to move forward, to catch the others and have a good Tour, but his job description this year was clear. He will, as the years unfold, remember vividly these moments, riding alongside the winningest Tour rider in history. It would have been nice to see Lance say a few words to him, but Janez just looked forward and kept riding. He probably had feelings we might one day learn about. Lance just looked … finished. I should say that I expect him to either quit the Tour during the rest day, or else actually try something on one stage. I am very glad his era is over. He is such a giant figure in the sport, it will be good to stop talking about him. After all, in his 'comeback', he never won a thing of consequence, but still made news every time he coughed. A huge personality.

Andy Schleck illustrated what might be his tactic to win the Tour today. He left it a bit late, but showed he can drop Alberto. Or maybe Alberto decided there was more to come, and he was not going to bust a gut so early. Ten seconds is no big deal. If Andy can do this every time there is a mountaintop finish, he might be fine. He was asked why he didn't attack earlier. He said, quite calmly, that he had a plan for the Tour and he was going to execute it. Apparently the plan does not mean attacks on Stage 8. Good to know there is a plan we can look forward to. He is a gifted rider, and it will be fascinating to see if he can gain enough time on Alberto before the final time trial. As most of you know, Andy will lose at least two maybe three minutes on Alberto on the day before they ride into Paris. As certain as anything can be in this Tour. So where will Andy attack and from how far out. With Fabian and Jens Voigt, as well as the rest of the very strong Saxo Bank team, he has options. Nice to see his first stage win ever in the Tour. Not the last.

I don't talk much about Cadel, but he is there now. In yellow. The rest of them have got to drop him sooner or later or else he will win. Very simple. He can ride a fine TT if he wants, certainly with the yellow jersey at stake he will do well. He knows all about riding the Tour, he knows about the podium, he appears to be in fine shape. I hope he not only makes the podium, but also gives us a little bit of entertainment and sporting excellence during the next few days. I wish I warmed to him more, that I liked him. He speaks Italian, French, English and maybe Spanish too. He likes to support Tibetans. His wife is pretty smart and very supportive and also good looking (unlike Cadel). Why can I not warm to the guy?

My wife is beginning to get bored with me shouting 'attack attack' at the TV. I am too. I know they are all trying to win. I know they are also trying not to lose. As a spectator, I am less excited watching the main GC guys just ride up the last climb in a clump. Yes, Rodriguez did attack. And Gesink. And in the last kilometre, Schleck. But we lacked the slow unfolding of an attack, the gradually lengthening of the gap, the gradual bringing back of the attacker, the counter attack, those mountain moves that make a Tour exciting, and are not merely attritional. Modern cycling is a bit defensive, a bit focussed on not making a mistake rather than the overt display of panache and risk. Oh well.

Looking at the GC after the first serious mountain stage, what can we see? First, it is looking about like it should. It also seems to show that there are not huge differences between any of the top riders yet. The results seem a bit uncertain, it is not clear if there is someone who can really dominate the others. I still reckon Alberto for yellow, but I can see why others might make a case for Schleck or Evans, at the very least. I suppose the best guess is that the podium in Paris will have the same riders as it now does, but maybe we don't know the order yet. If this is true it is a bit sad, but normal for the Tour. But behind the top three we have some others lurking.

Jurgen van den Broeck, or Jerry, is doing well. He seems to have quietly kept up with most everyone and seems able to keep that up. Certainly last year he announced his presence very clearly and is not following that up with a fine ride so far. I have no idea if he is capable of attacking, but if he is, that should prove a very intriguing new element in the mix. Another big surprise in the top ten is Ryder Hesjedal. Although I knew he was good, and even mentioned him in the intro to this blog, I still am a bit surprised to see him up there so high after two days in the mountains. I was never sure if he could climb that well. I don't even know anything more to say except that maybe Garmin has found a new leader, after the sad withdrawal of Christian van der Velde. In some ways, seeing Levi Leipheimer in the top ten is not a huge surprise, but to see the rest of the Shack team so far distant is not what I expected. How Shack support Levi during the rest of the Tour will be fascinating, as he certainly can do a very fine TT at the end of the Tour. In addition, sitting nicely in the top ten is Nicolas Roche. Another surprise for me, in terms of success in the high mountains. He so looked like he was suffering today, I thought he was losing minutes when I saw him. Nearly everyone tips him for very good performances as he ripens, and I guess this is an example. But can he possibly survive in the high mountains?

In terms of disappointments, we still have not seen any kind of moves from Basso or Kreuziger. If the Liquigas duo are gong to make a move, I guess they will be waiting for the Pyrenees. As is Schleck. As is nearly everyone. Should be some good racing, for sure. But Basso, if he doesn't do something quickly, is going to be a domestic for Kreuziger, who is sitting less than two minutes behind Evans, while Basso is another minute back. Still, that duo could be very dangerous indeed. They don't seem to have stretched themselves, and seem to be riding quite comfortably. To make things simple, there are a dozen riders within three minutes of Evans. And to make the podium all of them have to attack or at least follow an attack. Even Contador might feel the need to attack, although he can bank on gaining a minute or so on everyone in the TT.

One piece of relevant information, maybe, is to look at the top twenty, those within five minutes of Evans. Somewhat unusually, there are 18 teams represented. That is, except for Liquigas (Kreuziger- Basso) and Sky (stretching it a bit, but Wiggins and Lovkvist), none of the other teams have two riders. I was just thinking that this give those two teams a bit of room for strategic manoeuvres the others don't have. No idea if they will use it to make some moves. On the other hand, many teams have climbers capable of keeping up in the mountains, who can also be part of moves, even if they are not in the top twenty.

Enough for today. Rest Day tomorrow. Doubt if there will be a posted blog from me.

2010-07-11T10:43:00.001+02:00

Stage 7 10-7-10

Today was meant to be the day when we tasted the big mountains, although no one really thought there would be any big differences between the GC riders. The general notion was that they would ride up to the top together and someone who could climb a bit would win the sprint after the final three kilometres, slightly downhill at the end. Before that they cruised through a rather nicely forested mountain landscape, just behind the break of five which had been away the entire afternoon. Both the maillot à pois (mountains) of Jerome Pineau and the champion of Germany, Knees, and the pocket rocket Samuel Dumoulin were in the break. I guess everyone knew it would be doomed. Except for Pineau trying and keeping the jersey.

A bit less to say today, birthday party that will start just half an hour after the end of the stage. Even a nutter like me does not let the blog stand in the way of all events with real people. Have to say that the descents seem a great pleasure on this route through the Jura. Long, but not too steep, not necessary to use the brakes much. You just uncurl down the mountain. At 90kph, very pleasant for the riders. Nice friendly mountains, apparently the coldest place in France -41 a couple decades back. Also hot in summer. You tell I am writing this as the stage unfolds. Just grabbing their musettes with food and drink as I type.

Friend rang, so I lost the 'live thread'. To be honest, watching the big time lads just move up the mountain at their leisure. No real sense of urgency. A few people had fun racing. Chavanel crowing about his great job. I guess he did OK, but a race where a second string rider like Sylvain wins two stages does not say much about the others. On the other hand he was the only one who cared, so I guess he got his reward. I just can't like him much. His interviews are really really boring. Legs of fire, that's the velo, hundred percent, my courage and panache, and so forth.

Notice Andy is back in White, so things seem a bit normal, although Chavanel and Pineau I hope change tunics soon.

So I got back from the party at nearly 0100, very late indeed, for me, but totally sober. I can't drink presently. So no blog work. If I spend much time on it this morning, it will mar the day, already full with the Tour and the Footie. So let me me just post this. Sad for me to see Edvald Boasson Hagen (EBH) dropped so dramatically. Ditto for Geraint Thomas. I guess it leaves them both free to help Wiggo now, but I had hoped to see more of those two young riders in the future, maybe even later in the Tour. Good to see Hesjedal up so high, although I wonder if he can handle heavy mountains. I don't think so. I have no explanation for why Klöden got dropped, maybe he has some clever move planned for today, on the last climb. Sacrificial attack or something. Reading down the top ten I find it really odd to see Van Summeren's name there. Great hunk of a guy, not someone who should be in the top ten after a climb.

Glad Fabian has had his moments of glory, but also that my rivals in the Fantasy League stop picking up points for him. I am way down the table now, as I didn't pick him and he has done really well. Bad mistake.

Must get ready for today. Should be able to get something written between the end of the Tour and the Footie, although some of you don't have to watch the after Tour show, like I do.

Later.

2010-07-09T23:30:00.001+02:00

Stage 6 9-3-10

The longest stage of the Tour. Did I say it was very long? It was very long. The countryside was some of that rolling hills, small villages, white cows in the fields stuff that I love. The TGV to Paris goes through that kind of area, not far from where the Tour actually was. I missed a bit of it as my nap was quite long today. Mind you it was a long nap because I was tired, as I got up early today. But I also knew that nothing much was likely to happen today. Did I mention that nothing much happened today? It was excruciatingly hot, the riders have to climb mountains for the next two days, and no one was gong to put themselves out. Toward the end, in fact, from about fifty k out, the sprinters' teams slowly shut down the escape. Besides the Spanish champion there was also a French guy called Julian El Fares, who can climb as well, in the break. El Fares is one of the four or so riders who have Maghrebin (Tunisia, Algeria or Morocco) genes, although they are born in France. Blel Khadri and the Haddou brothers are the others who managed this move. For most part, as most of you know, cycling is pretty white in Europe. On the other hand, they are all 'French', according the the French, so there is nothing to report here.

The sprint was almost a copy of yesterday, in the sense that the HTC train worked well during most of the race, then it worked especially well during the last few kilometres. Just at the every end, it got disrupted by both Garmin and Lampre, even messed around a bit by Sky. This seems to be the normal tactic now, but it did not work yesterday or today. The ultimate pair is Renshaw and Cavendish, and they stayed together throughout, until the last two hundred metres or so when Cavendish demonstrated that yesterdays' win was not a fluke. Of course Pettachi got a bit boxed in by Farrar and Thor Hushovd did particularly badly today, finishing way behind his rivals in tenth place losing valuable points on them all. The HTC guys seem to have found the solution to the new challenge posed by the systematic disruption of their train by other teams. None of the other riders have more than one 'pilot fish' with them at the end, so HTC has done the same. Renshaw just happens to be very good at his job. That same formerly obscure French rider, Sebastian Turgot got sixth place AGAIN.

The race for the green jersey seems to be hotting up a bit. I might have been wrong about Hushovd locking it up, but he has been performing rather badly over the last two days, losing many points that he has not lost in previous years. In any case, whatever anyone says, none of the real sprinters are going to take many points between now and Bordeaux, the second last day of the race. Only one more stage that could be a sprint finish and I doubt it will be. Anyway, if it is close race, coming down to the Champs on the last day, so much the better. But I still don't think Pettachi will last through the mountains. And with both Cavendish and Farrar scoring points, I doubt that McEwen is going to be a threat in the end. I still hope Eddie BH manages to do something though. Maybe he CAN climb after all.

Truth be told, nothing changed, not much happened. In stage racing, they call this a 'transition stage'. All the GC guys try to rest, take it easy and have no problems. Which is what they did. The Sprinters' teams have to decide if they will chase down the breaks, which they did. Voila.

Tomorrow, we hit the mountains. The word is that Saturday is not really a mountaintop finish as there are three k at the end that are flat. So maybe not such big time differences. I am sure there will be some, and if riders do not adapt to the climbing, then perhaps one or two of the ten or more GC contenders will lose time. I am predicting a bit of a race. Sunday there is no doubt that the stage is hard, that there will be racing, and if you are near a TV do take a look. There will be some big splits.

On the other hand, tomorrow I am going to a pal's seventieth birthday party in the evening, so I won't have but a few minutes to react after the stage. So don't expect a long analysis. That is a bit of a pity, because there will something to say and I might not have time to say it.

Do tune in if it is at all possible. While it is agreed that the overall race will be decided the last week in the Pyrenees, there are enough riders with a bit of time gap who might want to get something back. There could be a bit of attacking, at least on the last climb. We might also see a few riders showing an interest in the mountains jersey,which so far has been a contest waiting for a starter's gun.

Good night.

2010-07-08T23:20:00.001+02:00

Stage 5 8-7-10

While the cycling and the route today were not too intense for 99% of the day, we certainly got a big dose of emotion and action at the end. Not much to say about the racing until the end. It was mostly flat, lots of sunflowers, wheat, maize, cathedrals and big houses. They really are richer up there around Paris, and have been for many centuries. We just don't have such big buildings around here in such profusion. The green French countryside just simmered in what all the riders said was a serious heat, over 35 degrees much of the stage.

Surprise! There was an escape. Three guys never had much of a lead, but they rolled on for hours. Got caught about five k from the end, by a combination of HTC (way over half the work), Lampre and Cervelo. Those teams were riding for Cavendish, Pettachi and Hushovd. Now and again we saw a Garmin rider or other teams during the day, and the Garmin guys were certainly very active in the last few kilometres. By 'riding for', I mean the teams wanted to make absolutely certain that the escapees were caught, otherwise their sprinter could not win the stage. If the peloton catches the escapees too far from the end, then other escape artists are encouraged. So the ideal is to catch them about five k from the finish. Like today. Let's take the ending first, HTC Columbia, in the end, delivered the first Tour victory to Cav. You might even say that Mark Renshaw was the crucial figure in the end. One day some other team is going to make him an offer, and if Renshaw wants to be a star, then he might just drift off. I doubt it though, as HTC sees how crucial the lead out team is, and how difficult it would be to replace Renshaw. Renshaw, in turn, might be quite happy with his job, get paid a shedload of money, and might stay. Anyone in the know realises he is very very good, even if he does win lots of races.

As far as I can tell, without reading through the entire story of the day, nothing much happened. But if I find anything, I shall tell you. May as well keep things short. By the way, should you wish to review the end of each stage, as well as other semi-interesting videos, you should check out http://www.cyclingfans.com/ or even just go direct to YouTube.

By giving you that link I should save you a lot of my words, but …. the HTC train works very well, but other teams have figured out how to stop it, temporarily disable it or some of the riders in it. There are various moves to use, and Lampre has certainly worked out some good ones. The main tactic is to disrupt the line of HTC riders, trick them into getting separated, enter the train itself by a bit of shoving and pushing, and then without all the riders in a row, the train does not work quite as well. For example, the team and riders cannot regulate their movement, speed and changing of places so carefully and consciously. Today for example, the Garmin riders, three or four of them, ended up riding in front at the rather crucial moment before and after the last curve, the last curve before the final straight. Sprinters like Hushovd, McEwan, Freire and Sebastian Turgot (sixth, two days in a row, yes I know you have never heard of him, Bbox, neither had I) are trying to find 'the wheel' to follow. If they find the right wheel, follow it, then at just the right moment, maybe a hundred meters from the line, they can, if strong enough, come out from the protection of the other rider and blast past for the victory. The moment to blast past, as well as exactly which wheel to follow, is the essence of a master sprinter's skill and savoir faire.

In any case, Renshaw and Cav got to the end in pretty good shape, in the front, not much to deal with ahead, an empty road. Cav moved out and past Renshaw with no trouble. Although Eddie and Thor and Pettachi and the rest did their very best, this time they could not get past Mark. The truth is that while Cav is a complex fellow, or 'a kid' if you like, he needs to be delivered to the 200 metre mark with no one in front. Then he wins. If anything disrupts this, then we don't quite know what he can do. I suspect if necessary he can wing it, but we won't know for some time as Renshaw is a highly skilled sprinter himself, almost taking a stage when Cav was a bit poorly recently.

In the interview afterwards,with the French TV, as well as on the podium, he was in tears, all the time, not just a wee moment. He was crying. In fact, during the interview, he had his face buried in his hands, while the camera focussed full on him, and Gerard Holz just stood there with the mic, mumbling. I think they think they might have captured 'a huge TV moment', and maybe they are right. I thought it was a bit tasteless, and they could have switched to something else, or just to Holz mumbling, without showing Cav in such a serious state of upset. Cav made various explanations and thanked various people, I was not listening too closely. I was just watching this arrogant kid, who is unable to really understand what he says and its impact, who really needs to do some growing up, just break down. And then come out of it too. We will hear about this for some time. I hope someone does a transcript of the what he said because I 'heard' none of it. The pressure he must have been under or put himself under over the past few weeks, as well as the past few days must have been immense. He is only a kid, 23 is not 'grown up' in our day and age. He gives good hugs too, after he wins, to all his teammates. Not just perfunctory embraces of the 'I am a man and I don't hug' variety, but actual proper hugs. That, in my simple book, is a good sign of character.

So I could not be happier that he has won, not least because I picked him for today and should get a few points. After yesterday, many of my forum colleagues abandoned Cav, for seemingly good reasons. The truth of the matter is that we need characters in cycling to make it interesting for the spectators. It is not just a sports event (although NO big time sports event is 'just' a sports event), it is a show. And Cav makes good TV. I do wish he would learn to see himself more clearly, reflect a bit.

So looking at the green jersey, Thor did well today, beating his nearest competitor. But he did not beat Eddie (EBH), who finished third. Thor thinks Pettachi is his biggest rival, but EBH seems to be trying to win sprints too. Might I also mention that Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil, the Spanish sprinter, is doing way better than most Spanish sprinters have done in the Tour, or anywhere else. I remember asking a pal who lives in Spain if here was a really good Spanish sprinter, for my Vuelta team. She said not really. This guy looks good though, at least the best of the rest good. I mention again Sebastian Turgot, but frankly, I have little to say. You don't finish sixth in a big Tour sprint two days in a row by accident. But who is he anyway? Looks like Tyler Farrar is a bit better. While not on top form he is riding well enough that his whole team a very effective lead out group, rides for him. Tenth is not great, but could be in with a shout in the next couple of days before we hit the mountains and the sprinters have to suffer in the back group.

No GC guys lost any time today, no one left the race during the race, same mountains jersey, same young rider jersey, same yellow jersey. Just the drama of the sprint to keep us going. Incidentally, if some of you have never actually watched a clip of the sprint, with the possibility of stopping and starting it so see exactly what happens in the last two k, then take a look. It is very interesting and very complex and happens in the wink of an eye. If you ever get a chance to witness a massive sprint finish, do so at least once. They go so fast and move so quickly, you just have no idea if all you see is TV. I remember looking down a long classic sprint finish in Tours, wide and straight. I looked at them far away, put the camera to my eye, and they were on me. The sound is actually awesome. I learned that I should never take photos of the peloton passing, just watch with all the senses open. Took me years to actually do it like that. Sprints like today make me drool a bit about the ones at the end, in Bordeaux and Paris, both totally classic.

That's it for tonight folks.

2010-07-07T22:50:00.001+02:00

Stage 4 7-7-10

A short stage, the shortest in the Tour. Rather flat as well, it gave everyone a rest, until the sprint of course. There were some very fine cathedrals, I had never even heard of, a huge and lovely one at Laon, in fact I had never heard of Laon. The Tour allows us to discover France, as well as watch some racing. In fact, not a lot of racing today, or rather the kind where you could do something else as well as keep track of the goings on. Rest day for us after yesterday.

Thor Hushovd was clearly a bit tired today, as was Cavendish. That might explain their rather lacklustre performance in the sprint. Thor and Cav were both very well placed at the end of the leadout period. Pettachi was behind Thor who was behind Cav. About right for everyone's expectations. But when Pettachi made his move, Thor attempted to follow and could not, and Cav did the same and could not. In fact, Cav gave up completely when he realised he didn't have the legs, coasting in for a twelfth place. Thor did not give up entirely, as he is actually trying for the green jersey, which means you can't give up on any day. He finished ninth and kept the jersey. Pettachi is creeping up on him, but I doubt the Italian will pass through the mountains. So unless there is some very odd occurrence, Alessandro will quit sometime in the next week or ten days. He does finish the Giro, but somehow I don't think he will make that much effort in the Tour. In any case, with two stage wins, Pettachi has more than made his mark and more than fulfilled his contract. He has done better than anyone could have expected. Farrar was invisible today too, as one would expect with a bad wrist. McEwen was still in action though, he might prove a surprise by the end of the Tour. And I noticed that two of Farrar's team-mates were second and fifth. This does show that the leadout men are often pretty good on their own, capable of nearly winning if left to their own devices by the poor health of their leader, Farrar. It also means that the Garmin leadout train is pretty good this year and when Farrar is better, assuming he does get better, there might be some chances of a victory. Somehow a broken bone in the wrist does not sound like something that heals in a few days, while racing full on.

For me, the poor finish of Thor is not a big deal, I think he was just tired from yesterday. But Cavendish troubles me more, although he too could be tired, having ridden quite well yesterday. I really don't know if this is a permanent or temporary dip and exactly why this loss of form. Is it the loss of Hincapie in his train? He hardly ever lost when Big George led him out. Is it the cumulative effect of his terrible personal life over the last year? He was in a perfect position from which to win on this stage, he just did not have the legs. And when a win at all cost, arrogant sprinter just gives up and coasts in, beaten by guys like Dean, Hunter, Oss, Gil, Rojas and Ciolek, guys he would normally eat for breakfast without swallowing, then there is something wrong. On the other hand, his last leadout man, Mark Renshaw, says he is sure Cav will win a stage. But that is not quite like six stages, or even four. This is a new story for the Tour, and I think it will run until the final sprint on the Champs Elysées. In any case, the green jersey will not rest on Cav's shoulders this year. We just have to watch and see how he reacts to his first really major failure.

Let's see, anything else to report. Hmmmm. The breakaway was pretty much doomed, as the sprinters' teams were hungry for a win. But the escapees kept going until the end. The escape ;is the most important move in cycling, without it, we have utter boredom. They didn't go that fast though. In fact, Amets Txurruka, the tiny Basque climber, had a bad crash today, looked awful, got dropped early on, and still only lost four minutes. So no one was going fast. I watched a fair bit of the stage today, and really I just didn't notice much. I had a rest day too.

I really can't think of much more to say. Oh yes. Edvard Boasson Hagen, who you will remember is the co-star of Sky, with Wiggins, but who has had a bad year so far with injuries, seems to be in very good shape. He might be a sprinter, he might be a time triallist, he might be a medium mountains guy. In fact he seems to be all these. The only question of the Tour is how can he do in the High Mountains. If he manages those well, in support of Wiggins, then we have got, for sure, a new star. But pretty much everyone knows he is a great rider, with utterly no limits at present. In fact, if I am not repeating myself, an outside bet to threaten Thor for green, or at least finish in the top five, might be either of the young Sky riders, Geraint Thomas or Eddie. That could be a story which MIGHT run the length of theTour. But you never know with young guys. Sometimes it takes a bit of time to make their mark. Thomas already knows the Tour, but EBH is on his first go. Both can sprint, as we have seen, but both can also do something in hilly bits too. Thomas certainly can keep up with the best on the cobbles, as well. They are pretty good, AND BRITISH, like me.

Nothing much happening in the yellow jersey, young jersey or mountains classifications. We should begin to see how the injuries are affecting riders in the next day or two. Expect a few more abandonments. I can't believe how they ride with such nagging or even moderately intense pain. Remember if they have scraped skin on their ankles, or knees or hips, it is impossible to actually avoid pain. Those joints and skin moving all day long. And if they have sore arms, they still have to hold onto the bar all day. Not a picnic. These guys are serious.

Short stage, short blog.

By the way, the cold is almost gone. I should be back in full action, maybe even on the bike for a short ride, within a couple of days.

2010-07-06T23:02:00.000+02:00

Stage 3 6-7-10 (and a bit about Stage 2)

I was not very happy about stage 2. I felt like we got a bit robbed as spectators, and I am not even sure why, or rather not sure the reasons really hold up. Essentially, for the crucial stage of the race, the last hilly bits where some riders could have made a difference by attacking, there was no race. The only guy racing was Chavanel, and so he won. The crowing of the French media about his magnificent victory and heroic ride was really a bit naff. He got given the stage by the peloton, that is all there is to it. He had less than a minute lead when the rain stopped and would have almost certainly been caught. Cancellara seems to be painted as the just and fair leader of the race, but you COULD say that all he did was somehow persuade the peloton to stop racing and wait for his two team-mates to catch up. You could also say he had the interests of the entire Tour at heart and found it hard to let numerous contenders be practically eliminated from the race by a crash. Doesn't really work for me. If the last two big shots to join were NOT on his team, then maybe, just maybe … Not like one of the Schlecks was in yellow. In the recent Giro, Basso and Nibali crashed and lost three minutes on the peloton. No one stopped. They just had to make a good race and catch up during the stages that followed. In my view they should have kept racing. Certainly they could have raced the last few kilometres. We have now had two days when the riders more or less were on strike, let's hope that does not happen today. Although I admire Riis' strategic mind, even if I don't like the guy much.

So forgetting stage 2, as one should, how about stage 3? I have never been present at a more exciting flat stage that I can remember. I was glued to the box for the last forty k. I hardly had time to think or contribute to my forums where my virtual pals were also watching. After two dull days, this was a total revelation, and just what I love in the Tour. Bloody brilliant. Anyone who missed any of it missed a great sporting event. I am sorry for those who crashed and got punctures. I regret that Frank is out, not least because he was on my team and now I doubt I shall win the league. But those are the breaks of cycling and racing. It appears it was entirely his fault, but in any case, I guess he was the big name who 'lost the Tour on the cobbles'. We all knew there would most likely be someone, he was it. But still, no one likes riders to lose a big race by 'accident'. To me, although there was much discussion before and after the stage, there is no doubt that a few k of cobbles is a great spectacle for us lot at home. Absolutely excellent.

But what happened? One item stands out. Cavendish, unless something nigh onto miraculous happens, has utterly no chance to win the green jersey. Thor Hushovd has 63 points and Cav has 1. That is correct. Cav has completely blown all his chances by the end of stage 3. The wily master is not only leading, but leading by quite a bit. Geraint Thomas, who is young and inexperienced and has a team totally dedicated to Bradley Wiggins, might do well, but he is unlikely to beat Thor. With a lead like that, third place is well behind. The only chance that Thor might not win is that one of the climbers might just accumulate enough points to beat him, almost without trying. Although the green jersey is usually won by a sprinter, this is not logically necessary. There are simply not enough flat stages in this race for Thor to be certain he can beat a climber. So I guess there might be a contest, but not from any other sprinter. He could make mistakes of course, but usually he does not. So maybe the green jersey contest is over. In any case, I have always liked Thor. He is blunt, knows his cycling, but is more or less civilised with it. Cav should learn a little from him, and not merely about winning the jersey, stages or sprints.

Although it is not for the best reasons, we will now see what Andy Schleck is made of. I was getting really bored with his 'where is my brother' stuff all the time. That attitude ruined the Ventoux stage last year. If he has a bit of character, maybe he will attack and do really well, even if it is only to 'win it for my brother'. If he has no character, then he will wilt, and finish somewhere in the top ten and not enliven our enjoyment. I have no idea which, but it is a story that will run.

In the battle between the Yank and the Spaniard, looks like Alberto got the first blood. The five seconds in the prologue means nothing. But Alberto was supposed to blow it on the cobbles. He was supposed to have no team. Lance was supposed to be good on the cobbles, and have a powerful team. In the end, Lance punctured, but he might still not have kept up, and they both ended up with one team-mate at the end. Turns out that Alberto's guy, Vino, was better. Vino lasted until the very end, and Lance was on his own for several kilometres. Turns out that Alberto had no problems with the cobbles. Alberto 1 Lance 0. We await more instalments of this saga. I should add that I think Alberto had a puncture at the very end, which is why he lost some seconds. He was, however, a hero, revealing new sides of his extraordinary talent.

We also learned not to buy whatever brand of tyres Quick Step use. A shame for Sylvain to get two punctures and a crash, but he had his taste of glory, and has never been more than a very good cyclist. A pity nonetheless, although I have never really liked him much anyway.

One reason I like the stage so very very much, at least the last bit, was the total confusion. The uncertainty as to what might happen, as to who might win, as to who was injured or who crashed, as to who was in what group and how far behind they were. It was absolutely impossible to follow by any means, TV, web or guesswork. For me, uncertainty is the key to good racing. Not total uncertainty, as about six or seven people on my forum, including me, picked Hushovd to win the stage. But that edge of seat intense wondering what might happen next. If we had that on all the stages, even at the end, I would look forward to a rest day myself.

I have to say one of the finest performances was not only Fabian, who won the jersey back AND helped his team-mate, but Vino who almost won the stage and also helped his team-mate. Vino was strong all day. In fact, although I didn't keep track, its seemed like he was in front for many minutes during the last bit of the race, trying to keep all the other contenders at bay, taking minutes out of some. I hope he keeps on like that and even wins a stage for his work.

I would be amiss not to mention young Geraint Thomas. He is not a total surprise, but I think if he keeps this up he might end up being 'the revelation of the Tour'. He is already being talked up by the French commentators (Jalabert). He is hard, he can sprint, and he is good in the medium mountains. Lovely young Welsh guy. Sadly he might end up being used up by helping Wiggins, but that is life and he is young. In any case, Wiggo did well today. He rode the cobbles like an experienced hard man, and looking at the standings he is a fine position to enter the mountains in a few days. And we should mention David Millar, who also did well today.

Another happy aspect to the day was the return of Laurent Fignon to the French commentary. Not that the other Laurent is not good, but both is better. Fignon's voice is awful, and his wit is not as quick. All due to his cancer and the side effects of the treatment. I hope we are not seeing him for the last time. He has so much to say and sees so much more than I do. I am lucky not to have my vision restricted by the acts on Eurosport (Harmon) or on the American commentary (Phil and Paul). It is nice to have a commentator who knows more and sees more than you do.

Perhaps a mention of Ryder Hesjedal, since I so sagely tipped him for something or other in my intro. He really is someone to watch. Not only did he escape and keep going, but he attached himself to the first break when it went past, when most breakaways end up just getting dropped badly. Not only that, but at the end he actually attempted a sprint to win, but sadly he looked like a slow motion replay, and was easily beaten by the others. He was a tired bunny.

The big losers today. Frank Schleck of course. But other than him, there were none really. OK, there were guys like Lance and Ivan Basso, Robert Gesink and Carlos Sastre who lost a minute or so on Contador. Every minute counts, every second counts, but that is not really a disaster for any of them, especially since all of those four contenders actually were in the more or less the same group. When you actually looks at the standings, and eliminate those who can't climb, things look pretty much as they should. But what a stage! By the way, when I say no one lost really big, it is rather unusual for many of the big names to be two or more minutes behind the favourite at this point. It should be much closer, especially since one stage was a total bust. This could be a very interesting Tour as teams and riders attack to get back time in the mountains.

The biggest winner today had to be Andy Schleck, no one thought he would do this well on the cobbles, no one. Second salute to Fabian as he has to be a true man of the North, time triallist extraordinary, and one guy I did NOT pick for my team. BIG mistake. And of course Contador, another guy who was meant to be a loser on the cobbles and turned out to be tough as nails. Two others that might be missed are Cadel Evans, who was superb today and maybe he is ready for the Tour and not wasted by the Giro. I am glad about him doing such a good ride. Not only that, but he is a minute ahead of Contador, which is not bad really. And last, but not least, we must notice, hidden away a bit, Jurgen Van den Broeck, whose name I must find a way to abbreviate. Maybe Jerry. He is an excellent climber and maybe his time as come. Top ten anyway.

That is all for tonight, I gotta watch the footie. Such a terrific stage. I shall go and look on my negative forum later and see if anyone found something complain about. I will tell you later. Actually nearly all of them thought it was brilliant. And it was. Well, not all. One of the guys I like best and respect most said 'Another bad stage IMO. I hate to see GTs decided on crashes. F. Shleck out. Basso and Kreuziger lose time due to the crash .... pile of crap really'. He has a point. I don't like crashes either.

Hey, we could have a Tour here! That stage will last me through two boring flat ones easily.

Thanks to a guy on one of my forums, here are the contenders for the top ten after this stage. Less that three minutes separate them all, BUT we have not even hit the mountains. And it is ONLY stage three. Gesink Basso and Sastre are going to have to make some moves though, which can't be bad for us spectators. Note the already low positions of the Radio Shack guys who normally would expect to be in the top fifteen, all of them. Yet now, none of them. They are going to have to attack too.

3. EVANS Cadel BMC RACING TEAM + 00' 39"
6. SCHLECK Andy SAXO BANK + 01' 09"
8. VINOKOUROV Alexandre ASTANA + 01' 31"
9. CONTADOR Alberto ASTANA + 01' 40"
10. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen OMEGA PHARMA - LOTTO + 01' 42"
13. MENCHOV Denis RABOBANK + 01' 49"
14. WIGGINS Bradley SKY PRO CYCLING + 01' 49"
16. KREUZIGER Roman LIQUIGAS-DOIMO + 02' 24"
17. SANCHEZ Luis-Leon CAISSE D’EPARGNE + 02' 25"
18. ARMSTRONG Lance TEAM RADIOSHACK + 02' 30"
19. LÖVKVIST Thomas SKY PRO CYCLING + 02' 34"
21. MARTIN Tony TEAM HTC - COLUMBIA + 02' 35"
24. LEIPHEIMER Levi TEAM RADIOSHACK + 02' 53"
27. BRAJKOVIC Janez TEAM RADIOSHACK + 03' 00"
28. ROGERS Michael TEAM HTC - COLUMBIA + 03' 00"
29. KLÖDEN Andréas TEAM RADIOSHACK + 03' 01"
32. SANCHEZ Samuel - EUSKATEL - EUSKADI + 03' 04"
34. KARPETS Vladimir KATUSHA TEAM + 03' 05"
38. LE MEVEL Christophe 61 FDJ + 03' 12"
43. GESINK Robert 195 RABOBANK + 03' 16"
48. SASTRE Carlos 91 CERVELO TEST TEAM + 03' 19"
49. BASSO Ivan 41 LIQUIGAS-DOIMO + 03' 20"

Good night.

2010-07-05T19:57:00.000+02:00

Taking a Sick Day

Although I saw the race, and will continue to watch, just don't have the energy to do a blog today. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe you will get a whopper all of sudden. Sorry about that, but I seem to have brought a virus back with me from England which flourishes in France.

2010-07-04T22:06:00.000+02:00

Stage One 4-7-10

Happy Fourth of July! This day is the official birthday of my motherland. Home of many bad things, and many good things. I am most proud of Motown Music and Jazz. And open source software. OK, I am glad to have been from the country that has the most variety and biggest number of immigrants of any country on earth.

As for the Tour, we did not have the anticipated mighty winds off the sea which would chop the peloton into pieces, or echelons, and force contenders to lose time. In fact, although I didn't watch that bit of the race, I gather that nothing happened at all. By the time I got around to watching it was three guys in front and the peloton rolling along behind. There were slight problems, like Adam Hansen the young TT champ from Australia, probably breaking his collarbone, but finishing the stage. But for the most part, until the last three kilometres, the peloton just rolled along. I watched this rolling along for a long time. I looked for clues as to what was going to happen, what was happening. I saw almost nothing. Admittedly I saw some very impressive cathedrals, and crowds as big as any I have seen in the Tour, but nothing much else. Just as well, since I seem to have fallen ill, no doubt something to do with being home and the travelling being over. I should be better by the time we hit the Alps, knock on wood.

To make up for the inactivity during the entire race, we had at least three crashes at the very end of the race. As a result, the race results were slightly strange. The first one was on a corner that everyone knew about, but which was the last corner before the straight, meaning everyone wanted to get around it first. The crash was almost certainly caused by Cavendish being surprised by the corner and seemingly going straight across the various riders who were turning right. However, the small crash took out Cavendish and my own pick Freire, as well as Mirko Lorenzetto of Lampre and Jeremy Hunt of Cervélo TestTeam. Check all this out on http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/ under the topic 'crashes and finish'. Later, it looked like the entire peloton, save about twenty five riders, just stopped, in a wall of tangled bikes. No idea whatever how that one happened, you just can't see. The third crash was caused by, in my mind a pretty ridiculous switch from one side to another by Allessandro Pettachi. The switch took everyone with him and somehow Tyler Farrar's bike got tangled up with Lloyd Mondory's. One often gets crashes like this in the first days of the Tour, when everyone wants to win and be in front. But not usually THREE in several hundred metres! Later things cool down, and life gets more relaxed, except for a few sprinters. Both David Millar and Eddy Merckx, in post race interviews, had no complaints about the road, it was wide enough and seemed to be one of the longest straights in the Tour this year. The whole thing at the end was just bizarre. What can we learn?

Maybe that Thor Hushovd is not in bad shape, as he finished third. Maybe that Pettachi is a wily old guy, since he avoided the problems. Maybe that even if Cavendish crashes, his last lead out man is pretty fast, as Mark Renshaw got second. But maybe we can draw no conclusions at all, except there might be more crashes, and results that were not predicted. One thing is clear. The first three are well recognised sprinters and they won the first bunch sprint. I assume that in future stages, guys like Cav, Farrar, Freire and others will be closer to the front. The jerseys changed a bit but not much. No one has even put on the mountains jersey as there have not been any hills at all. This will change tomorrow, although the winner will not have anything to do with who eventually will win.

I must admit I am glad I spent a couple of hours in front of the screen today. Not so much for the racing, which was pretty anodyne for all but the last kilometres and then got just silly. It was more a gentle immersion in the Tour, kind of like walking slowly into the sea on a very shallow beach, rather than plunging in from a rocky cliff. Laurent Fignon was absent from the commentary box, his place taken by Jalabert. Laurent is fine, but I do miss Laurent. I suppose Fignon sounded so poorly yesterday, his voice being more a growl than a voice, that they just had to take him off. I will find out what happened and tell you. I shall miss him. For those who do not know, he is fighting cancer of the digestive system, which somehow turned into the lung cancer, as far as I know. Heavy chemo. Probably death soon. I did like his commentary though, incisive, honest, insightful, funny … a great loss if he does not come back.

No point in prolonging this blog, there is not much more to say as far as I know. Tomorrow is a day that ends with a few shortish climbs, so it should NOT be sprint finish.

Vive le velo.

2010-07-03T23:21:00.000+02:00

Prologue 3-7-10

While the Prologue has very little effect on anything much at all, it's all we have, so it is what I have to write about. I am happy about that, since I watched the footie, and must go to bed soon if I am to ride tomorrow morning. To make the prologue results interesting we have to pretend that small gaps 'send messages' and slightly larger gaps might make a 'big difference' in the results. But the time losses here are pretty trivial and make little difference. When the weather is like it was, we need to know exactly how wet the roads were for exactly which riders and when they dried to make 'deep sense' of the results, if there is a deep sense. We can also notice some serious disappointments and begin to wonder what they mean, although without precise weather data we just won't know. It was not raining, then raining hard, then not so hard, the drying up for various riders.

For example, I was trying to explain the very poor performance of my pick for the day, Bradley Wiggins. Maybe it was the rain, but riders near his start time did pretty well. Losing nearly a minute on the winner, and many seconds on nearly every other contender, finishing below guys like Pettachi and 77 other guys is really pathetic. He only beat Frank Schleck by one second, and Frank cannot time trial. I simply have no explanation for it and just have to admit it. The fact that I picked him to win the prologue, and it was not a totally stupid choice, says it all. The fact that three or four so-called contenders, Sastre, Basso and Menchov have also lost nearly a minute on the very first opportunity is also a little bit odd. None of them are well known for time trials, but Basso is not THAT bad.

A little bit further up the ranks, Evans and Kreuziger also did rather poorly, especially Evans who is known to be an excellent TT rider, although maybe not such short courses. I was delighted to see that Tony Martin has now confirmed that on the big occasion he can not only climb, but do a good TT. Seeing Millar up there also warmed my heart. David did a very good interview in his impeccable French immediately after the race. The fact that Cancellara won is only a confirmation of his superb style, fitness and desire to win. He is the best. As for the difference between Contador and Lance, 5 seconds, nothing much need be said. When announcers make a big deal of it, it shows they are not really doing anything but making something out of nothing. Neither rider will make much of it, and neither of them will think it means much. BUT it has to be said that the old guy looks fit and rode well. This bodes well for a bit of action in the rest of the Tour, maybe. Both Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden are clearly in some kind of good shape, ready to see if they can make trouble for the Spaniard. In fact, four of the top seventeen riders were on The Shack. Slightly impressive. The Spaniard has good guys to help him though, both Vinokourov and Grivko seem to be in good shape, and the others are just resting a bit. The only job of every rider on the Astana team is to help Alberto win.

I liked seeing Geraint Thomas up there is his UK jersey. I guess when all is said and done, I have a weak spot for the 'British team', although it is really the team of the empire of death run by Murdoch, so my support is mitigated. On the other hand, I feel a special attachment to young British riders when they make it in the big time. Allez, Geraint. If only I knew how to pronounce the name I would be able to shout it. The other Sky guy I like is Edvald Boasson Hagen, Eddie for short. As I said earlier, no one really knows how good he is, whether he can climb in the high mountains. He can certainly time trial, sprint and climb medium mountains. So seeing him ninth means he is in pretty good shape. With young guys you really don't know how they will last a three week race, so we have to wait and see.

As for the rest, nothing much to note. I would have thought Lars Boom, winner of a recent prologue like this, would have done better. I was also reminded of another young favourite of mine while looking through the results. I am hoping that Rein Taaramae will make a serious move in this Tour. He is Estonian and has shown great promise. My other favourite with hard name to spell is Ryder Hesjedal, a Canadian. Ryder has caught my eye simply by winning the odd stage, especially ones with steep short climbs near the end.

Minor notes. I thought Thor Hushovd would have done better today, much much better. I think something is wrong with him. We should know in a few days. Andy Schleck is gong to have to take nearly a minute out of Contador somewhere, already he is way behind. I know he can do a decent TT, but surely starting out with that deficit is a bummer. His brother did a bit better, but someone should teach them a bit and get them a bit fit for the ITT.

Right that is it, nothing much to report and time to crash out. I guess only one more day of footie interference, so I should be getting down to it more seriously.

All the best.

2010-07-03T11:45:00.001+02:00

Pre-Tour Chat

A slight confession this year. I have spent the last three weeks travelling in England, working and visiting friends. Totally delightful. So it is only today, the day before, that I am writing about the Tour. As a result this first bit will be a little bit less than complete. In fact, I am writing it on a plane heading for home. Never did that before, so it feels a little weird. Apology over.

By the way, tell anyone you know about this blog. I write and have written it for close to fifteen years, and I do it for fun or because I am obsessed. But I also write it to become famous and to be able to follow the actual live Tour, with a press pass, because of a connection I make through this blog. Maybe I could write a book, but certainly fulfil my dream of being a 'real writer' and 'real Tour reporter'. So if you tell everyone you know who might like to read this blog, I might become famous and I might meet someone who does the right thing to make my dream come true. So pass it on.

The Tour looks pretty good this year. But I always say that. The route is generally considered to be harder than last year, no team time trial to mess up the results for a few contenders, only one fairly long individual time trial at the end of the race. Maybe more mountains, although there are arguments about that. A very heavy duty three days in the Pyrenees, during the last week. So far no last minute exclusions. The beauty of the Tour, besides being a media spectacle of global dimensions, is that everyone who can be there is there. And they are serious! No one is using it for 'training' for another race. All the riders are ready, or should be.

The overwhelming and almost unanimous favourite to win is Alberto Contador. It is rather difficult to make a case for any other winner, but if one tries, there are maybe ten guys who might do the job. So if they ever get together and attack, no one knows how Contador will respond and whether his team is strong enough to help him out. But he should win. He is possibly the best climber in the race, and possibly the best time triallist on a given day, so it is hard to figure how anyone can beat him. Nevertheless, anything can happen. The first few stages hold some traps for any contender, including Contador. For example, the first stage along the windy coast of the Netherlands, the second stage with some hilly bits at the end, and the third stage which has something like 13k of cobbles, not easy for a light guy like him. Even if he wins, he often does it with a sense of beauty and panache so it won't be quite so boring as some styles of winning recently.

So who are the guys that might beat him. First on the list are the Schleck Brothers. Last year Andy, the younger one, came second, so there is no reason, other than his lack of clear form up to now, that he can't do the same, or maybe better. His main problem is that he can't time trial, or up to now he has fared poorly. The other reason is that he does not seem capable of dropping Alberto on the climbs, more the other way round. His brother is a fine rider, finishing fourth last year. He seems in good shape, and should have a good Tour. The only problem with these brothers is that Andy keeps looking behind for his brother and does not really attack if his brother can't. That may change. Lance might do something, but I doubt it, too old, not good enough. “All of Britain” wants Bradley Wiggins to do well, but the general view is that he just is not good enough to beat enough riders in the mountains. We shall see. Two guys in their thirties who had terrible Tours last year MUST have better ones. No one knows how well Dennis Menchov, the Russian, is dong this year, but when he is on form he can climb with the best. He has a young teammate, Robert Gesink who is capable of much, but has not yet demonstrated it for three weeks. He might take over if Menchov flops. Then we have Cadel Evans who has become even better in recent years, and is capable of very fine time trials and also with keeping up with MOST of the climbers. Evans has a terrible team though and probably will be in the top ten and no better. Another 35 year old guy is Carlos Sastre, the Spaniard, and winner of the Tour two years ago. He is capable of climbing superbly and time trialling badly. He will certainly be visible, maybe taking a stage, but it is highly unlikely he will do better than top ten. Two other, even older guys, whose job is to support Lance are capable of good work and strong Tours. But few think that Klöden and Leipheimer will be allowed to do a great job for themselves. The last two riders I will mention are both on the same team. Ivan Basso and Roman Kreuziger are often not listed as top ten riders, but sometimes are listed as riders who might make the podium. The reason for this is that in recent years, not many riders have done well in the Tour if they have exerted themselves in the Giro. Basso won the Giro this year, and most people think he cannot do well in the Tour. I have always been a fan of Basso and if I had good odds on him, I would bet on a podium finish. As for Kreuziger, he is seen as number one helper for Basso this year, even though he might be allowed a bit of freedom if Basso blows it early on. Their team, Liquigas also has some quite strong riders, although three of the best are not riding the Tour. There are more outsiders, but we will talk about them later, the ones I have mentioned are the obvious ones.

As for the other jerseys, it is harder to find an overwhelming favourite. The green jersey, given for the rider who gains the most points at the finish of each stage, that is, finishing in the top ten on many stages. Usually they call this the sprinters jersey, and in the Tour it is almost always won by a sprinter. The major favourite is Mark Cavendish, the young, slightly outspoken Manx lad who won six stages last year, but lost the jersey to Thor Hushovd, the more experienced Norwegian. The difference was in one stage where Cav got disqualified, probably fairly, for poor sprinting behaviour. Those points made the difference. Neither Cav or Hushovd have shown much form this year, not many wins for either, so it is not at all clear that they are the only possibilities. For example, the young American sprinter, Tyler Farrar is given a good chance if he gets lucky and the others really are not in good shape or are inconsistent. As for other sprinters, not many think there is any sprinter who can beat all three of them, although beating one or two and finishing in the top three is possible. My outsider for this jersey is Edvald Boasson Hagen, a young rider with an injury filled, troubled season, who can climb and sprint, no one yet knows what he can do in a three week Tour or when he is more mature. I think he is brilliant, but he might not be strong enough (serious injury problems this year as well) to finish the Tour. There is also Tom Boonen, but somehow he is no longer a pure sprinter and is unlikely to do more than win a stage. The same goes for Oscar Freire, who is the wily old geezer, winner of three World Championships and who pops up every now and again on a stage. He probably won't finish the Tour, and in any case, probably won't do well enough day after day. He IS good though, another outsider.

The mountains jersey is a complete mystery. In fact, I just bought another mag today when I got home, and looked for their predictions. Not even a mention of the jersey, and I am sure they knoew it existed. The Cycle Sport mag I got in England had a very short article, very short indeed, entitled 'Who's going to win the polka-dot jersey?' All the article had was a profile of all the mountain stages, without mentioning a single name. We really do have to wait for the first two climbing stages, maybe much later, to see who is actually interested. In the recent past, there has been little competition for this jersey. One rider, a good climber, tends to make an early bid, get over a number of climbs worth many points, usually in a break, and then hang on for the victory. One good mountain stage with lots of climbs, and no mistakes later, usually wins the jersey. The rider is usually one who does not have any responsibilities to help a possible yellow jersey contender on his team, and who can, of course, climb. I am not sure it is even worth mentioning many names, we just have to wait and see who makes the first big break over the bigger climbs. In case you wondered, I have picked a Spanish rider, Rodriguez from the Katusha team to do the job, but it is just a guess. I looked through all my mags before sending this off, and it amazed me that some of the Tour Guides did not even MENTION the mountains competition. I guess it was embarrassing to admit they had no idea at all who would win. Maybe someone will win by accident, just because they do well in the mountains, like Contador.

As for young riders, those who are 25 or younger, very few do not think that Andy Schleck will win it. The main reason for this is that he is meant to one of the very serious challengers to Contador for the yellow jersey. That is, unless something happens, he should finish on the podium and therefore be the highest placed young rider. There are some outsiders who might finish higher than Andy, but it is very unlikely. For example, one complete outsider to watch, just to see if he is ready, is Pierre Roland, a Frenchman. But as I say, how he could beat Schleckette is not at all clear.

That pretty much takes care of the jersey competitions. One additional interest in the Tour is that I will be managing six teams and picking a winner for each stage. These teams are already picked, registered and there is nothing I can change. These teams are on three different Fantasy Cycling games, so the rules for each need not trouble us here. If anyone cares to know more they can drop me a line. On one forum I will be picking a rider for every stage, and do that every day. Pressure, responsibility, victory! One of my teams has only riders older than 35, another is a team of riders who are meant to be worth few points, that is 'cheap' riders. Yet another team is composed of all French riders, as a similar all Italian team was picked for the Giro. The last of the four teams is my 'real team', the one picked most carefully, and with which I hope to beat everyone on my forum and many others. At present I am doing really well, second on our forum and something like 35th out of five hundred others. It does depend on luck, wisdom, knowledge and … mostly luck. You can easily pick a guy who crashes in the first stages or just does not have a good Tour. In the Giro for example, all my sprinters disappeared by the end of the race, and one of my climbers crashed early on. Still did well though. In a general sense I chose to have only two sprinters in my real team, when I usually pick three. So I have seven riders for the General Classification.

Here is Team Occitan for 2010. If you don't know how Fantasy Cycling works, it is not terribly important. But one gets so many points or so much money, each rider is worth a number of points or amount of money according to one or another system, and you pick your team to win the most stages, place highest on GC or whatever scores the most points.

Team Occitan
Frank SCHLECK
Robert GESINK
Mark CAVENDISH
Tony MARTIN
Edvald Boasson HAGEN
Bradley WIGGINS
Tyler FARRAR
Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO
Andy SCHLECK

A recent mag had four experts pick the podium. They all picked Contador and A Schleck for first and second, and then picked Evans, Menchov, Wiggins and Leipheimer for third. I guess third and lower are up for grabs, according to the pundits.

In more general terms, there a number of 'stories' that are likely to run throughout the Tour. One of the stories is, of course, Lance Armstrong. He is the biggest media figure, but not the best rider, in the Tour. He claims this is his last Tour. In his comeback last year he managed to finish third, which was way beyond what serious analysts (not Lance fans, but more balanced people) thought at the beginning. Some still think he can win, but if he does, it will be the biggest surprise and the biggest Hollywood ending for any cycling career ever. But I cannot figure any way at all that he can beat Contador AND all the other contenders. He really is not THAT good. Maybe he will finish in the top five, but more likely in the top ten. He has really not shown much form lately, although his performances in the last two races he rode were his best of the year. So he might be peaking perfectly, and has a terribly strong team with maybe three other guys who could finish in the top ten, Andreas Klöden, Levi Leipheimer and Janis Brajkovic (a young guy you have never heard of, but who won the Dauphiné, a major warmup race for the Tour, beating Contador). In addition he has riders who can climb and protect him a bit on the hard flat bits. Of course he also has experience, vast experience, of the Tour. His major drawback is that he is 38 or is it 39. He is just getting too old to ride the younger guys off his wheel. His climbing has been pretty good, and his time trialling has been vaguely all right. No one really knows. I will not mention anything about doping, but many think he has been and still is using drugs. More about that if it comes up in the Tour itself, otherwise I hope to never mention doping at all, certainly not now. I know it exists, but I am so weary and bored by discussions about it that I hope nothing whatever comes up during the Tour. But if it does, my views are simple. If you catch them, bust 'em. Keep testing, but otherwise stop all the chatter.

Another drama will be the supposed 'battle' between Lance and Alberto. Last year, Lance and Johan Bruyneel (the team director) gave Alberto a really hard time during the Tour. Lance and Alberto were on the same team. Without going into details, Alberto contended that the non-cycling moments of the Tour were harder than the cycling ones. In my view Lance acted exceedingly poorly. No doubt if the least action passes between them, the papers and TV will make note. I suspect it is a non-story, but being Lance, everything he does is a story.

Another story will whether anyone can drop Alberto on the climbs. Plenty will try, and if Contador ever gets dropped on a stage by anyone who is challenger for the yellow jersey, all commentators and observers will get very excited. We shall see.

The story that will dominate the first stages is loss of time on the first three stages. The first stage, after the prologue on Saturday, goes along the seacoast of the Netherlands for a goodly part of the way. We are expecting big winds, which will force the riders to break into echelons, little diagonal lines of riders which take account of the winds coming from the side. The echelons can only be as wide as the road, so they can only contain maybe thirty riders, or even less on some of the roads going on top of the dykes in the Netherlands. The next twenty are behind the first thirty. As the gaps increase, the riders can be further and further behind. So any contender who loses his place, could lose many seconds even minutes. The second stage has quite a hilly end, so lucky, fit and clever contenders have room for attacks that could also gain many seconds. The third stage has several sections of cobbles, usually a disaster for light riders, like the many climbers who have to traverse the cobbles, normally a practice they avoid at all costs. Some of the climbers have heavier, stronger riders to help them through these days. The others will lose time. In addition, riding the cobbles is dangerous, in wet weather, utterly dangerous, leading to crashes that are sometimes not the fault of the injured rider. So by the end of the third stage, one or more contenders might have lost all chances to win the Tour, in fact, might have crashed out with injury. Although there are no mountains in the first sections of the Tour, the stages that take the riders through Belgium and the Netherlands before returning to France could be rather eventful. Well worth watching on the box than the usual flat stages that begin the tour. Some say it is foolish to have a route like that, ruining the chances of good riders, but I think it might provide a pretty good TV spectacle, even if it does mean some contender is out.

The prologue is tomorrow, a medium length one, just over 8k. It is utterly flat, but is meant to be rather technical. That is, lost of turns and curves and tricky bits. The weather will obviously affect the race, as if it is wet many riders might not take chances on ruing the Tour before it begins, and therefore won't go as fast. As to who might win, there are numerous candidates. The first is probably Fabian Cancellara, generally acknowledged to be the finest time triallist in the world. Right behind him are a couple of English speakers, Bradley Wiggins and David Millar. I think Bradley might well win, but I doubt Millar will. In any case, there are also guys like Tony Martin, David Zabriskie and more who might well have a good day, or get lucky. Should be fun to watch, but unless someone gets really unlucky, the results should not have a big effect on the Tour.

That is about all I can manage before the plane lands. Then I have mess about with trains and buses and a ride from the Beziers station. I won't get home until late, without having had my nap, and with a football match to take a look at before I go to bed. Most importantly I have to chat a bit with my wife, who has gracefully done without my presence for the last three weeks. Being on your own in a two person house has advantages and disadvantages. So sorry not to be able to quote odds, to give you more details and to say much more about the rest of the course. But this gives you a rough idea.

I guess I could add that we are going to see the Tour at the 'classic sprint finish' in Bordeaux, as well as the time trial immediately after on the second last day of the Tour. We get to see a few of the French relations too, although none of them are Tour fans, so I think blog coverage, near the end of the Tour, might be a bit sparse. Otherwise, with this trip, the teams I am backing, my blog, watching the French TV coverage, going swimming with my wife several times a week, reading the various sites and l'Equipe every day, as well as keeping up in the garden and riding my bike a bit, I should be busy for three weeks. Hope you enjoy it as much as I do.

One last thing. Many of you might not be able to get coverage by your usual means, or you might not lie the coverage you get. In the last two years I have discovered watching cycling on my computer, which has a big screen. Should that be of some interest, then go to http://www.cyclingfans.com/ and it will tell you every day what audio and TV coverage you can get. So even if you are at work, you can watch on another screen or window. This site gives you coverage of any cycling race all year around. So you will not be dependent on the inevitable national biases of your local TV.

Catch you tomorrow, after the prologue.

2009-07-23T21:38:00.001+02:00

Stage 18
23 July 2009

Too tired, too ill for a blog tonight. Anyway, all you can really do with a time trial is add up the figures. Wiggins was looking really good and still did well even if he lost time on the downhill second part of the course. Armstrong did well enough. Moreau seems to have found some legs this last week. Frank did as badly as one thought and Andy did much better. Looks like Andy has nailed down the second spot, which pleases me a good deal. The overall outcome is that Nibali is now out of the picture for the podium and Armstrong, F Schleck, Klöden and Wiggins are going to have to duke it out on Ventoux for the third spot. Unless something strange happens tomorrow.

Of course the most amazing performance came from Contador, beating even Cancellara. He appears to be the fastest in a TT and the fastest up a mountain. He appears to be the best stage racer on earth. Bravo. Especially the way he has been treated in the Astana team.

So we still have one big stage left. I talked to a pal who is on the Ventoux now. He says there is practically no room for cars or vans at all in the last 6k after Chalet Reynard. Says it is a big picnic festival, with cyclists streaming by all the time. More tomorrow of course. Sad to have missed it.

Going to bed early. Good night.

2009-07-22T23:37:00.001+02:00

Stage 17
22 July 2009

Lots of racing today. Changes in the GC, which will change tomorrow after the ITT and will change again after the Ventoux on Saturday. Lots of little tragedies and joys as well. Happy bunny, me. The thing that surprised me most was Thor Hushovd doing his climbing attack, out in front of the entire peloton and the escape as well to get his points for the green jersey. I am sure he knows that, barring some accident of blunder, Cavendish will win on the Champs. Probably Thor will finish behind him or certainly within shouting distance. So it IS all locked up for Thor, even without this rather dramatic demo. In some way, I think he felt strong, needed no team support to do what he did, and felt he had to make something clear to Cavendish and all of us (“you are young and fast, but I am older, wiser, more experienced and can do many things you can never do”). He really is an excellent and complete rider. I am totally glad he has the green jersey, even if I picked Cav in the forum pool.

The Schlecks announced they wanted to mark the Tour's history today. They said they were going to attack. And they did. But exactly where everyone thought they would in exactly the way everyone thought they would. My wife claims they are boring and Germanic. I see what she means, but they nevertheless did well. No one will forget how they rode off into the mountains, and left behind everyone but Contador. It appears that no one can leave him behind. Contador gave them the stage, and between them they decided to let Frank win, the older brother. The two Laurents thought it should be Andy, Thierry Adam (the space filler) thought it would be Frank. I wanted Andy because I picked him in the forum pool, but I lost. In any case, for the next 24 hours anyway, the Schlecks look like they have succeeded. Sadly I fear that after the time trial, they will be like Nocentini in the yellow jersey. It is just a matter of time before they tumble down. Then they will have only one chance to get on the podium, Ventoux. That last hour on Ventoux should be very interesting indeed. I think we are guaranteed some racing that day. However, the Schlecks did what they said, when they said and you gotta respect them for that.

In case any of you wonder how my teams are doing in the two competitions, I would say average, or maybe slightly more than average, but not much. I made a couple of bad choices in each team and am paying for it. I will learn. Maybe.

That Astana team is pretty much dominating the whole race. Jalabert says smothering. It does not look like it now, but after the time trial it will be obvious. They seem to be able to control the race each day for long enough to let their excellent GC riders take it from there. Jalabert made a face when Holz asked him to comment on the excellent racing. While Laurent is usually pretty positive, he knows very well what has happened to this year's race. Astana is too good. On the other hand, they have the best rider on earth, Contador, ready to attack, hang in, whatever is need to win. They also have the German shadow who does nothing except be a good team mate and still manages to beat nearly everyone else. And then they have Lance. He was supposed to fail in the mountains, too old, not in good shape. Well, most teams would be utterly delighted to have their leader fail like he has. There are two guys from the same team who are temporarily ahead of him. No one except Contador can beat him. Although many hope someone will beat him. So far, they just can't do it. Holy mackerel, the guy is excellent, and old and very much NOT out of shape. Whatever happens in the Tour he can be absolutely happy and so can all his fans. He really has done well, and with only one more mountain stage to come, even if he fails badly, and there is no evidence he will, he will have made a huge success, for an old guy. I mean, all you want from a mountain guy is that he can attack and keep up. He has done both. I figure he will beat everyone but three guys in the ITT.

Sastre gave it a try today, but has not got it. Kreuziger was up there and then drifted back. Evans has never been in the picture. Menchov fell off twice and is an embarrassment. Egoi Martinez never really took on his job to win the jersey. LL Sanchez and Kim Kirchen were outsiders, and neither of them is even remotely close to the top ten. Tony Martin had a bit of glory and then fell far. Moncoutié never woke up. The Tour is full of disappointment. One minor disappointment is that the lanterne rouge, Kenny van Hummel, “one of the worst climbers in Tour history”, fell on a descent and left the race. He was supposed to be a great descender, but probably desperate to catch up after his awful climbing today. He gets dropped first of all riders, a bit like me actually. Except I can't sprint either. Too bad, apparently he was becoming a hero in Holland.

Pellizotti has done well, as has Hushovd. But neither of them was a secret. The biggest surprise continues to be Vee-geens, the Brit. Commentators are now beginning to think he might actually make the podium, a first for a British rider. Robert Millar was fourth once. I must look up some interview with Veegeens to get an impression. The only interview I saw, very short, was after the Verbier stage. He was surly and stupid sounding, but then again he had just climbed at the limit of his possibility and someone pointed a mic at him while he was sitting on the ground. I hope he sounds better later. Nibali and Vande Velde lived up to their promise even if they have not set any stages on fire, they have done really well. Goodness, there is still a Frenchman in the top ten, so we gotta say Le Mevel is a French hero.

Must get to bed, sorry for not having time for more. I am actually a bit depressed about not going to Ventoux on account of the colitis flare-up. My wife is not happy either. Total drag.

2009-07-21T23:34:00.000+02:00

Stage 16
21 July 2009

Since very little changed on this stage I guess one might expect I thought there was no racing or that it was uninteresting. Far from it, for me. I even almost missed my nap, but managed to squeeze it in between the bottom of the descent of the first hill and the last 12k up the second hill. Not a long nap, I admit. I had no notion whatsoever what would happen, but plenty did happen. Among other things, since the descents were half the stage distance almost, we got lots and lots of shots of descents. I could watch the lines they took and when they peddled. I told my wife that if I had a descent like they have down the first hill, I would never pedal, and even the second descent I would try not to pedal. These guys are nutters. I feel quite strongly that descents were invented so you could see the countryside before you, and recover and take it easy from the ascents, which are always always difficult. But they pedal and take chances to gain time. Professionals.

High moments of the stage for me were the scenery, Lance, Igor, Franco, Amael Moinard, Tony Martin, Marc Madiot, Wiggins, Le Mevel, Voigt and did I mention it, the Mer de Glace (glacier) and the absolutely excellent shots of the mountains and valleys. My wife and I agreed that the Alps were much to pointy. We prefer rounded off mountains more, ravines and such, canyons, cliffs, but basically more rounded. But from a helicopter on the telly, just about right, I can handle that. Not often I ever go on a glacier, so at least I can remember what they look like. And that weather station or whatever on the top of Aiguille du Midi. http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aiguille_du_Midi

It really is quite a piece of architecture and building work. The Alps were awesome actually. I know there are higher mountains, but they don't have bike races through them every year. France is really such an exceptional little piece of geography, very nicely placed.

Two not so good memories of the day, were the crash of Jens Voigt and the failure of Tony Martin. The latter was expected by many, who knew he was not really meant to be a great climber, even if he deceptively won the Tour of Switzerland mountains jersey. But Cancellara won the overall, so there was something funny about that race. Anyway, now Columbia has only one thing to do in the rest of the race. Although I am sure they will be happy to be in the escape tomorrow. Their only job is to win with Cav on the Champs Elysées. The Voigt crash was way unexpected, and really quite unlucky. Looks like his tyre lost traction when he stood up on his pedals in an unstable way, just fractions of a second after his bike jiggled from uneven paving. Totally perfect timing for a disaster, fraction before or after, no crash. He happens to be one of the riders I most like, not only for his riding which is impeccable, but for his big mouth as a “cyclist” looking after cyclists. I hope nothing serious happens, but at that speed, downhill, whew. He has the best equipment on earth and is a highly skilled bike rider. But those kinds of accidents just happen at the wrong time in the wrong space. Take a close look and you can see his rear wheel bump a little and then his front wheel fold. You can see him standing up too. I think that when you stand up, the bike moves in an uneven way for just a second. Bump plus uneven road, crash. I have not mentioned Cadel Evans, but his result today was just poor. In addition, if you search long enough you can find Menchov, the winner of the Giro 2009. I cannot explain why he is doing so poorly, so utterly awful. Both Menchov and Evans seem to have given up.

Wiggins seems to be able to keep up. Two hard stages to go, so we shall see. The French commentators have no idea where to put him. My critical cycling forum, of course, thinks he is on drugs or could be. They minutely criticise that he could lose the seven kilos, supervised, over many months, and not lose power. He claims he lost the weight as fat, not as muscle, they measured it. And that he never lost power, they measured it. So he knew he could climb. We all know he can time trial on the road. He has not fallen badly. He has a team to help him out actually, not a bad one. So each day he stays in third, they all wonder who and why and how. The Schlecks must be thinking that they didn't plan on him being there.

Then there is Klöden, does anyone have him figured out? But we did lose Nocentini and Martin from the top ten. We gained Sastre and Van de Velde. So the top ten is looking pretty full of serious guys now. That is, if you assume that Armstrong would have done so well and that Wiggins would be in third and Le Mevel in seventh. We all assumed this of course.

Lance made one of the anthology moves of the Tour, so far. Really memorable. He seemingly got dropped by Schleck's attack, as did everyone in the race but four other guys. But a little bit later he made a ferocious attack, just blazing by a totally surprised Frank Schleck. The relative speed of the two was remarkable. Frank managed to tag on and get back to the yellow jersey group. And eventually several other riders tagged on too. But I doubt if any of them were as dramatic as Lance's bridging of the gap. They all came later when the Schlecks got demoralised or whatever and slowed down. They probably got depressed they could not even drop the old geezer, Lance. My wife says it was worth watching the Tour for that moment. I rather liked it too as I am impressed with how Lance has ridden this race. He is definitely doing better than I thought he would. I figured that he would get dropped in the mountains, which he has been. But in fact, only twice and not by much. If you do subtractions and addition and take out the influence of his lucky tagging onto the Columbia lot at Grand Motte, and the team time trial, he is about eighth. But you can't do that really, and he is second. Andy Schleck has only got two more stages to make a difference to get to second place, because he can never take time out of Lance, Contador, Wiggins or Klöden in the ITT. He either has to attack tomorrow and on Ventoux or give up. But once he attacked he slowed down and let Voigt take up the pace. No more Voigt for the next time. Only the two Sorensens and his brother. That really is not enough to beat Astana. He has to do something very special. I think that was a shock to Andy that Lance could get back on. It certainly was a shock to me.

Marc Madiot was featured on TV, giving an old-fashioned, brow-beating, shouting “pep talk” to his troops. I find him appalling. It is not like Francaises des Jeux has been one of the top teams, even though the sponsorship was solid for many years. It really is a middle level or poor team pro team. That kind of macho, browbeating, motivational speech by the boss is so old, it just does not work. At the very least we can say other styles work too. You look at the riders in the bus and you see that NONE of them are looking at him or at each other. They are all looking down browbeaten by this opinionated loudmouth. Never liked the guy, but it was an intimate little shot for the TV coverage.

Igor Anton got his attack in just at the exact, right, cosmic moment. Or so it looks in the replay. It was classic. Just at the end, since you can't sprint, but can ride hard, make the move. Hard, from behind. Don't look back for a couple of hundred metres at least, just dig. Sometimes it works and then the recording can be used as an example of a classic way win the stage. You have to have the legs of course. Along with that video one would show one where the rest of the escape reels him in at about 300 metres. Or that they all get swallowed up by the pack (no danger in this case). Lovely win for a very good rider and team which I have always liked, even thought they disappoint nearly every year. This year, a stage, and Amets Txurruka being quite active too. Thought Martinez might even be going for spotted jersey seriously, but he seems to out of sorts or to have given up.

Hey, “the Frenchman” is still in the top ten. They love him. Probably be very easy for him to get a contract in the next few years with a French team. Good for him. He must actually be at least pretty good. You can't stay with the best unless you can pedal up hills fast. He must be good. I have actually heard of him before, as one of the French guys who really must come good one day. Most of them don't come good or THAT good. His day has come. Christophe le Mevel is a name.

So the jerseys didn't change much. And I don't expect they will. The mountains jersey might hold some interest, but after tomorrow that should be settled. I only say that in case something happens, but Pellizotti should not let escape his grasp. I should think he will make sure he is in the break for the first few climbs and then sit back a bit and watch the fireworks when the break out on the col de Romme. Not sit back, but just go along with the warriors as far as he can. Green is sorted. White is Andy. Now we just sit back and wait for the unexpected.

L'Equipe had an article today on descenders. They asked all the DSs they could find who were the three best and three worst descenders currently active, even if not riding the Tour. Each of the twenty could select three, but not in any particular order. If anyone wants to know exactly what the choices of Gallopin or Holm or Van Poppel were they have to either find a copy of the paper or write me note. The results:

Best descenders
Hushovd 10
Cancellara and S Sanchez 6
LL Sanchez and Haussler 4
Chavanel, di Luca and Popo 3
Garzelli, Nibali, Dumoulin, LeQuatre, van Hummel, Bertolini, Eisel 2

Worst Descenders
Moncoutié 12
F. Schleck 7
Soler 6
Anton 4
Basso and Moinard 3
Di Gregorio, Kern, Smyzd 2

One last piece of info before I try to take an early night to look after myself. I will almost certainly NOT be going to Ventoux. Very upsetting, but my colitis has come back strong in the last few days and I really don't think it is wise.

And tomorrow is what everyone is calling the Queen Stage. Should be good starting with the Col Romme for sure!

2009-07-20T23:07:00.001+02:00

Rest Day Two
20 July 2009

My heart and soul are not longer in this blog, although of course I will follow the race. I have to stop anyway when we leave for the Ventoux stage on Thursday. So I won't say anything about the time trial,the next stage and Ventoux. Maybe a little reflection when I get back. I never did buy that laptop that would allow me to work when I travel. Probably a good thing. There are going to be billions on Ventoux. I know three people personally and three more from my bike forums that are going. I am definitely going to record it and watch when I manage to get back to where I am staying.

So many things seem settled. But there is a very hard week ahead, and even without something bad happening to someone(s), there is a fair bit of racing ahead. So I am looking forward to the last week, especially the scenery. Some dramatic mountains, a nice ride through the Ardeche which should knock your socks off if you don't know it, and of course the climb to Mt Ventoux. I am still quite curious about a number of things.

Can Armstrong stay in the top ten? Will he actually help Alberto at some point?
Can Schleck escape, on stage 17 for example?
Will Wiggins keep up his special and unexpected performance?
What, in the end, will Klöden do?
How will the results of the ITT affect what happens on Ventoux?
Will Cav win on the champs?
Whatever is going to happen on Stage 16, which consists of two big hills, nothing else, and a longish downhill finish?
Will Moncoutié wakeup?
Who will win the mountains jersey?
Will there be the most people in history on Ventoux?
Will someone in the millions yet to see the tour do something really stupid? The death of the woman spectator was a reminder, if the gunshots at Freire and Dean were not enough.

What has more or less been settled is:
Contador should win.
Hushovd should win the green jersey.
Schleck should win the white jersey.
Astana is the strongest team in the race by far, even if they don't win the team prize.
Contador and Armstrong will not be on the same team next year.
There are a number of fine young riders ready to make Tour history.

Lightning, have to disconnect. Another blog cut short.

Two big hills tomorrow.

Carlos Sastre from the cyclingnews.com site. “Furthermore, while he said he's content with how he's ridden so far – he's currently 11th on the overall classification, 3:52 behind Contador – and happy with his team, the 2009 Tour de France has been lacklustre and uninspiring for him. So much so, that as he grows older, Sastre says he continues to understand less about racing today than before.
"The race has been like it is since the beginning. It still is the same fight – the rest of the riders are out [of contention to win]. It's a boring race, from outside and inside," he said.
Prodded what he means by "boring", Sastre replied: "What is boring? There's no attacks, no tactics, nothing… Just a strong team, one rider – one of the best in the world – will win the race, that's all.
"When you see the tactics on television, I don't know if you like that. Yesterday [Stage 15], it was one rider [Contador] in front, two teammates pulling behind [Klöden and Armstrong]; another rider from another team attacking [Andy Schleck], the other rider of the same team [Fränk Schleck] attacking behind him. I don't understand anything about cycling. This is my twenty-first Grand Tour, but every year I understand less about cycling.
"Maybe this is the Tour de France they [the organisers] want, and this is what you have now."”

2009-07-19T22:59:00.001+02:00

Stage 15
19 July 2009

So the racing action that we have been waiting for actually happened today. Most of the stage was a break which had some very interesting riders in it, but was caught at the end. A lot of other people wanted the stage win. And various teams, including Saxo and Astana turned on the speed in the first few k of the climb. It did look like a moderate climb, that is, no really steep bits, but at that speed it must have been hellish. Anyway the crucial thing is the attack of Contador, the slightly late and not terribly successful attempt of A Schleck to follow (resulting in second place) and a couple of other attacks. For example, Wiggins attacked and did good job of it. One never knows, but the French commentators are gobsmacked by Wiggins. They just have no idea how he can do the climbs and are puzzled as to what he is doing in third place.

So the racing was good, some surprises n the GC, as well as confirmation of what most already thought or knew. It is clear now that unless something very odd happens, and it does happen in the Tour, Contador will win. There might even be three Astana in the top ten or perhaps if the attackers don't get it together, in the top five. This is a superb result for that team. Although maybe people tend to play down Lance's performance, I think he is doing rather well. If he does continue to lose time on the other players, then he could drop like a stone. I am still convinced he will finish in the top ten and maybe the top five. For an old guy coming out of retirement he has done very well. I even think in interviews today he seemed to understand the word humble and admitting when you are not the best. But you can never believe him, so we wait to see. Maybe he will win everyone's heart by being a super domestique for Alberto. All this is subject to the next week's action, but it looks like the yellow jersey is taken care of.

As a result of the disqualification of Cavendish, it looks like the green jersey is over too. I have reviewed the film of the last minute, on You Tube, and I think he cut off Thor. He didn't need to, he could have just won, but he cut him off. It means that Cav won't have to do anything whatever for the next few days, no intermediate sprints, no nothing. Just wait, stay cool, take it easy up the climbs and win on the Champs. Maybe he might try something on one stage, there is a flattish one into the Ardeche on Friday. Bad day really for the Columbia guys and their strategist. No doubt their work in the last kilometres was enough to take the six seconds from Hincapie that he needed to be in yellow. The worst thing is that they totally missed the sprint points too. A bad day.

[Frankly, my heart really is not in this blog today. I am sure I will have plenty of time during the rest day to catch up. Real life is just intruding way too much]

There were others who are gave us slight surprises. Bradley Wiggins is surprising everyone. I should say something other than the British guy in me, and the surprise guy in me are both delighted. Wiggins is different than Le Mevel who also finds himself in the top ten. Le Mevel will almost certainly drift out. Wiggins might not.

I really am going to go to bed early. I will catch up tomorrow.

2009-07-18T20:48:00.001+02:00

Stage 14
18 July 2009

So Cav is meant to win. Everyone for the GC to keep their powder dry. The route is near where my wife used to live. So she will be there all day. Will the break succeed? Off to my nap.

Le Tour de France des paradis fiscaux fait étape en Suisse

Après Monaco et Andorre, le Tour de France fera étape en Suisse dimanche 18 juillet. Attac et les associations de la Plate Forme Paradis fiscaux et judiciaires s’associent à leurs homologues suisses (Attac Suisse, Action de Carême, Action place financière suisse, Déclaration de Berne, Pain pour le prochain.) et continuent leur parcours d’information et d’action contre les Paradis fiscaux.
Attac et ses partenaires prévoient des initiatives les samedi 17 et dimanche 18 Juillet à Pontarlier, ville départ de l’étape qui amènera les coureurs à Verbier en Suisse.
Attac France,
Montreuil, le 18 juillet 2009
Pour en savoir plus :
- Les communiqués français et suisse diffusés à cette occasion : http://www.france.attac.org/spip.php?article10202
- La rubrique dédiée à ces actions : http://www.france.attac.org/spip.php?rubrique31

So Cavendish did not win. Not only did he not win, but it appears that he was relegated fro cutting off Thor Hushovd during the bunch sprint. Although it is not over until it is over, if the appeal is not upheld, that means the green jersey belongs to Hushovd. Cavendish is unlikely to pick up many points in the intermediate sprints they scatter throughout the mountain stages, although Hushovd might. And there is only one pore sprinters stage. While Cav ill probably win that one, I doubt that Hushovd will finish in tenth or whatever it would take for him to lose so many points on Cavendish. So barring the unexpected, Hushovd has won green.

Another minor bad break for someone whom I like, George Hincapie. Five seconds, just five seconds from the second day in yellow in his long career. He tried to keep everyone in the escape interested for along time. But when Ivanov made his attack, some of them gave up. So he finished as best he could, and sat by the TV waiting to see how many minutes it would take the peloton to cross the line. Toward the end, his own team rode a little bit quickly to try to ensure that Cavendish, also on his team, would get extra points from Hushovd in the sprint. Sadly, that probably took away the final five seconds. For along time Astana rode behind the break. Some say they rode slowly so the break would stay away. George being an old member of Lance's team and a good buddy. Some say if Astana had NOT ridden the peloton would have been even further behind as the only team who might have ridden hard was the team defending the yellow jersey for Nocentini, AG2R. No one will ever know. But George sure did seem at least a little bit upset when he realised he had lost it for five seconds.

A very close male friend just died. At least I just heard about it. Al. I think I might just stop the blog for tonight.

2009-07-17T23:21:00.000+02:00

Stage 13
17 July 2009

Totally rotten weather. The giants of the road have to ride through most kinds of weather. The absolute extremes, like say hail and rain on the top of big climb, might cause a change. But generally if the temperature has plunged 10 or 15 degrees, and it is pelting down, you just request whatever garments you use in the wet, and keep riding. It seemed really cold. No one in their right mind, except dedicated fanatics of various forms of cycling, would ever want to ride in the driving rain. Those of us too poor, or with eyes too odd to get contacts, have the problem of glasses as well. It becomes a little bit like seeing through the lens of the TV camera. The droplets on your glasses exaggerate and obscure. Anyway more power to all of them, even if they get paid for it. I have got spoiled down here. If there is any rain at all, even a strong mist, no one turns up for the Sunday morning ride. If it looks like it will almost certainly rain, no one turns up. My wife says the word for wuss, weakling or wimp, in French, is “mauviette”. I turned up one Sunday when it was just a kind of wind-blown mist. No one there.

Good stage today, a bit of racing. My “nearly certain prediction” that some GC guys would do something, and as a result Nocentini would lose his jersey, was WRONG. I really liked hearing from his wife, what is she called, the first two days, but now it is tedious. I want some bleeding giant, not a “regular cyclist”. But even though absolutely nothing whatever happened in the GC, the stage was still worth a look. The slightly tragic decay of Sylvain Chavanel was a little heart tugging. He is French, but he is a very good rider. Maybe the French have got their quota for this Tour (Moncoutié, that's right, David, is he in the hotel?). Last year I could not possibly have told you a word about Heinrich Haussler. This year, he suddenly burst into my picture like powerful blue fireworks display. Two totally impressive seconds in Flanders and Milan San Remo. He was having a terrific season, and then vanished to reappear in this stage. No doubt he has been helping out Thor with the sprints, but we don't see him much on camera. His crying on the bike and off as he won is something a bit new in cycling I think. I would love to talk to some avid watcher of finishes who could say. I don't think stage winners used to cry at all. But what do I know?

Speaking of Thor he was very good today. He kept up with the very first peloton, the one with the giants in it. And at the end, he nipped out to take points for sixth, after all four escapees had been over. Cavendish made it over with the third peloton or so and got no points. Hard to beat that tactic. Finish on Cav's wheel and get points in between. As Thor went over, beaten for one point by Velits of Milram, he had a word with Velits. Velits “could have been” protecting Ciolek, his sprinter, but that is so silly as Ciolek is over a hundred points behind Cav and Thor and there are only two stages left. They guy should learn some manners and respect. Not a difficult stage tomorrow, so maybe the two lads (plus others?) will duke it out for the intermediate sprints as well as the expected mass finish. Or even the battle for fourth or third behind an escape.

The mountains guys will be fighting over two small hills. Today it became ever more clear who wants the jersey. Basically the three guys already mentioned. Martinez, Pellizotti and Feillu. Looks like Brice's brother leaving the Tour gave him more energy to battle, rather than less. Great for us. We see a little bit of animation in the stage, even if there really is none. It is also possible that someone like sleepy David Moncoutié could make a big break and collect big points, but not all of the three willlet him go and I don't think he is that much better than at least Franco and Egoi. Moncoutié can keep sleepoing and maybe hope for a stage win, although who knows where.

I cannot believe that Nocentini can still have the jersey. In my heart. In my mind, it makes sense. I see why Astana does not want the jersey. I see why no other rider wants to risk an attack, if they can make one. Right now Astana have the jersey, with one guy or the other. Everyone else has to do the work, Astana just ride along until the time trial, and then ride like fury up the hill. Whoever gets there first gets the jersey.. Even if Nocentini has the jersey in the last kilometre of Ventoux, surely Lance and Alberto could take 9 seconds out of Nocentini. So it is up to everyone else to attack. Like today. Although you could say the weather was pretty awful. And road made attacks dangerous. True. But these non-attacker “other guys”, given the parcours, they have to attack soon. So I try to keep being patient and talk of the stage on Sunday. That IS where Lance said his second Tour would start. I reckon he is pretty chuffed about the first bit of the Tour. Amazing really.

Shame about Levi. Never my favourite rider, but I really do not ever want anyone to go out because of a crash. If they get tired, have a recurrent injury, back or tendon say, then it does not seem either a bad or good thing. The Tour does that, picks up weaknesses. But a crash is usually out of one's control. Or a mistake. Or someone else's mistake you get caught in. It usually is not your fault and yet your Tour is over. But of course that is part of any Tour too, luck. The loss of one of the two super domestics for Astana can't help but be a blow. I don't know when, but we will see. Maybe it will just be only first, second, third or first second and fourth. Anyway, he has not put a foot wrong lately except for his careless or unlucky crash that did in his scaphoid. I think that might be the one bone that all cyclists know the name and location of.

So the stage had an impressive winner, two semi-young, semi-known guys making serious attacks, although I was never sure what for exactly after a bit. We had the tragic loser of the day. The stuff around the climbers' jersey seems quite entertaining. Not really epic in any way, but entertaining. I want Pellizotti to get it, as he is a real proper climber. But then Tzurruka was in a break two years ago when they came through Bédarieux. And Brice, of the name I dislike, is the young kid making his mark. This jersey could be high drama.

Bradley Wiggins' joke about Cav. Cav is not at all racist, he just doesn't like the French. I would love to have a discussion with four of my best buddies on that question. Not only a 'cyclist's analysis” but a real serious look at why a “self reflective” person can or cannot feel happy about that statement.

Holz found out that Nocentini had no idea how much money he won for being in yellow every day. He seemed sort of slightly taken aback, as if he thought he should really know. Holz then revealed that it was 300 euros. The wife and Rinaldo both chuckled. I mean there are some bits of the Tour that are so out of it, so out-dated. Can you imagine that it is worth so little? Anyway he recovered and said that money was for the team anyway, and he just didn't have anything to do with it. What chicken feed they pay for the race!

Did you see the stork's nest? Unless you watch nature programmes you don't see them often. Unless you live in the northeast. A bit German up there. Funny accents sometimes.

So a very nice stage. Action, doubt. Another worthy winner with a worthy feat in horrible weather. Good scenery. The part that always is a bit annoying is that it seems like the GC guys should be doing a little bit more than riding around in a pack. Up hills and on the flat, they just ride along in a bunch. Much as I love cycling, one of the bits I like least is a bunch of men riding around in lycra. Very slow form of spectacle. Without attacks and escapes cycle racing is nothing. But I had a decent nap. On the other hand, I still devoted myself to the Tour today, and I could have gone into a potluck in Montpellier. I was not that keen anyway and the weather was bad. I could have gone to an organ concert for free, but I would have to miss the finish. I really don't have time to do other stuff and watch the rerun. And I could be still going to a free rock concert in town if I stop writing, proofread later, and never look at my forums. If there is any stage that deserves that, certain this one might. I guess I am not really able to devote myself “solely” to the Tour any more. Maybe I never have.

I am a guy who can enjoy and appreciate from afar, but knows very well that only a three week immersion will bring “true knowledge”. Nearly everyone says this. That “being on the Tour” itself is a wonderful experience, and nothing you can ever imagine. The experience rises way above “the race”. I think until maybe fifteen years ago, and not really until a few years ago, you could not watch the full Euro coverage anywhere on earth. Now you can, with choice of language, for free on your computer. Obsession should be more possible, not less. Read the papers every day on the web. Although I noticed that the electronic version of l'Equipe does not have very long stories, and certainly not any of the little stories or columns that I love to read and have failed to pass on systematically to you all. I think until recently you really had to come to France to “get” the Tour. I think you still do, although you don't quite have to live in France all the time. You can come every few years.

I predict nothing about tomorrow, other than Cavendish will win the sprint. Although I bet he is very tired, as are his lead-out guys. He just has to win this one sprint and then ride within the limits until Paris. I also note that Brice has made it into the top twenty. Might not be impressive for some, but with a few serious climbs to come, he can't but move up a bit. I reckon fishing in the top twenty and winning a stage would be a good deal higher than he will have been dreaming about. Nice young man too, perhaps. Seems clean. Be nice if he is the real thing. The French are really hurting a bit for the real thing.

Must get to bed. My English cycling pal, who is leaving for three months, chose a ride up a steep hill and I am a bit tired tonight.

Vive le vélo.